Spot natural gas prices slightly increased in the recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve slight daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 1.04%. It settled at the price of $8.964 per million British thermal units, after it rose slightly yesterday by a rate of $8.964 per million British thermal units. 0.23%.

US natural gas futures fell about 1% on Monday, driven by increased supplies, expectations of cooler weather and lower demand for refrigerants over the next two weeks than previously expected.

The ongoing outage has also affected the Freeport terminal for exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Texas, leaving more gas in the United States for utilities to pump into storage for the coming winter.

So far this year, the price of the most active natural gas futures contract is up by about 134%, as higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for US LNG exports strong. Global gas prices have also risen this year after supply disruptions linked to the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

The United States became the world’s largest exporter of LNG during the first half of 2022. Regardless of rising global gas prices, the United States cannot export any more LNG, because the country’s factories are already operating at full capacity.

US gas futures lag behind global prices because the US is the world’s largest producer with all the fuel it needs for domestic use, while capacity constraints and freeport outages prevent the country from exporting more LNG.

Meanwhile, Russian gas exports through the three main lines to Germany have averaged about 2.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, down from 2.8 billion cubic feet per day in July and 10.4 billion cubic feet per day in August. for the year 2021.

Natural Gas Technical Outlook

Technically, the main bullish trend dominates the price movement in the medium and short term and along a slope line. This is shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period, supported by its continuous trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days. We notice the influx of positive signals on the relative strength indicators.

Therefore, our positive expectations surrounding natural gas remain in effect, as we expect more rise for the price during its upcoming trading, as long as the support 8.054 remains intact, to target the pivotal resistance level 9.600.

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Hits new August high above $24k.

Previous BTC/USD Signal

My previous signal on 1^st August was not triggered as there was no bullish price action when the support level I had identified at $24,372 was first reached.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $23,585, $23,028, or $22,713.
• Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $24,358 or $25,000.
• Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous analysis last Monday that the price of BTC/USD had reached a pivotal point: the support level at $23,266. I thought that if the breakdown happened, it could be quite strong as there were no support levels below until $21,449. However, I was also happy to take a long trade from that level if there was a bullish bounce.

This was an OK call as the price broke down slowly, and this did indicate correctly that the price would fall over the remainder of the day.

The broad technical picture is unchanged: the price continues to rise gently and be held by a wide bullish price channel.

The shorter-term picture has become more bullish as we have seen the price make two clear higher lows since towards the end of last week, and today it has been rising firmly to break out bullishly above the former resistance level at $23,585 and make a new August high price.

The important question now is whether $23,585 will continue to hold as new support. If it does, we could see the price rise today to $24,358 or even the big round number at $25k.

The best approach to trading Bitcoin today will likely be to wait for a long from a bounce at or very close to $23,585. I would not want to see any hourly closes below that level before entering a new long trade.

There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the US Dollar.

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Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

Yesterday’s buy trade was activated, and half of the contracts were closed with the price rising towards the target and providing a stop loss point.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best buy entry points

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from levels of 17.85
• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.54.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

Analysis of the Turkish lira

The Turkish lira stabilized near its lowest level this year against the dollar, amid noticeable interventions by the Turkish Central Bank to control the price of the lira against the dollar, and work to stabilize it at the current borders. A report published by Reuters yesterday, which includes a poll on inflation expectations in the country, showed that inflation is expected to rise to record levels of 80 percent before declining to levels of 70 percent at the end of this year. This contradicts the statements of the Turkish Minister of Finance and Treasury last week, which expected the country’s inflation to rise to 60.4%. It is noteworthy that Turkish energy imports are the main reason for the rise in inflation, as Turkey imports most of its energy needs, which rose in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It is noteworthy that there are other unchanged factors that pressure the price of the lira, most notably the stimulus policy of the Turkish Central Bank, which adheres to fixing the interest rate in light of the tightening of other central banks of monetary policy.

On the technical level, the Turkish lira stabilized against the US dollar at the peak recorded during the current year, after a temporary decline during yesterday’s trading. Where the intervention of the Central Turkish in the strong movements of the pair appears on the pullbacks shown on the chart, before the pair’s rise returns. The pair is trading above the rising trend line on the four-hour time frame, shown on the chart, at the same time, the pair is trading above the highest support levels that are concentrated at 17.80 and 17.70 levels, respectively. Meanwhile, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 18.00 and 18.32, respectively. The pair is also trading above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the bullish trend on the medium term. We expect to re-record new highs, especially with every dip in the pair, which represents a buying opportunity. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned to rise during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve gains in its last sessions by 1.37%, to add the index to it about 436.05 points. It settled at the end of trading at the level of 32,197.60, after it declined slightly during Tuesday’s trading by -0.71 %.

Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee decided to raise the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%, in line with expectations.

“We expect continued increases in the target range to be appropriate,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement Wednesday afternoon. Inflation remains “high,” citing supply and demand imbalances, rising food and energy prices, and broader price pressures, the same language used in the June statement. June, adding only reference to food prices.

FOMC Highlights

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday at a news conference after the FOMC meeting that the incoming data will determine whether another “extraordinarily large” increase such as 75 basis points is needed at the upcoming FOMC meeting on 20- September 21, but it cannot be ruled out.

In other economic news, the advanced goods trade deficit narrowed to $98.18 billion in June from $104.04 billion in May, reflecting a sharp rise in exports and a slight decline in imports.

The National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales index fell 8.6% in June, well below expectations for a slight increase. Pending sales are down 20% from the previous year.

Technically, the index benefited from positive support due to its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days. It settled above the support level 31,885, in light of the dominance of the short-term corrective bearish trend along a slope line. This is shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period, with the start of negative signs appeared on the relative strength indicators, after they reached overbought areas.

Therefore, our expectations continue for more cautious ascent for the index during its upcoming trading, as long as it remains stable above 31,885, to target the main resistance level 33,000.

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Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

The buy trade of the recommendation was activated on Thursday, and a profit was made with closing half of the contracts with the introduction of the stop loss

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels 17.45
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 17.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.40.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a direct order from 16.81 . levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.44.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 17.11

The Turkish lira fell during early trading today, as investors followed early reports issued by the country’s statistics institute that showed inflation rose 78.62% on an annual basis during the month of June, which exceeds analysts’ expectations. On a monthly basis, inflation rose less than expected as it rose by 4.95%, compared to the previous 2.98%. Inflation in Turkey continues to rise, reaching its highest level in 24 years, specifically since 1998, which is slightly higher than expectations and the highest level since 1998. The rise was led by the transportation sector, which rose by 123.37%, and the rise in food and non-alcoholic beverages prices by 93.93% contributed to pushing Inflation is up, and the prices of furniture and household appliances increased by 81.14%. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan previously approved raising the country’s minimum wage at the end of last week, amid promises to reduce inflation by the end of the year.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira fell against the US dollar, as the pair returned to trading in a narrow range, which is shown in the ascending channel on the four-hour time frame shown on the chart. At the same time, the pair settled above the support levels that are concentrated at 16.70 and 16.48 levels, respectively. At the same time, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 17.11 and 17.40, respectively. The pair also traded between the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating a short-term divergence. While the pair continues trading above the moving average 50 on the time frame of the day. At the same time, the pair is trading the highest strong resistance levels represented in the 50 Fibonacci levels on the descending wave that started from 06-24-2022 until the top recorded on 06-27-2022. We expect the pair to rise from the levels specified in the recommendation. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

Our expectations remain neutral.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) increased in their recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve slight daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 1.34%. It settled at the price of $6.440 per million British thermal units, after it declined during trading yesterday and today by – 3.30%.

Nymex natural gas futures led by the August contract failed to hold on to early gains yesterday, amid weak demand ahead of the weekend. August Nymex futures settled at $6.498/MMBtu, down 7.2 cents on the day, while September futures were down 6.4 cents at $6.493.

Spot gas prices NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg posted moderate gains amid rising temperatures especially on the US East Coast, rising 13.0 cents to $6,610.

The market focused on stocks throughout the spring and summer after the cold winter drained stocks. As Russia’s war on Ukraine has led to stronger calls for US LNG, an explosion at Freeport LNG earlier this month appears to be alleviating supply concerns, although the 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) that would feed the shutdown terminal Usually now available to meet demand or injected into storage.

Last week, the market got its first glimpse of the impact of the Freeport outage on supply in the US. In a surprise report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said inventories for the week ending June 17 rose by 74 billion cubic feet.

Technically, the early rise in spot natural gas prices comes as a result of its dependence on the pivotal support level 6.361, which gained it some positive momentum. This is especially with the start of the influx of positive signals on the relative strength indicators. This in light of the dominance of the main bullish trend in the medium term along a trend line, as shown in the graph. The facility is for a period of time (daily), but it continues to suffer from the continuation of negative pressure for its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days. It is also under the control of a bearish corrective wave in the short term.

Therefore, our expectations remain neutral, waiting for the stock’s behavior towards the pivotal support level 6.361. In the event of this level consolidation, it will push the price upwards to target the resistance level 7.368. However, if the price breaks this support, it will increase the negative pressure on its upcoming trades, to directly target the support level 5.660.

There is a likelihood that the pair will have a pullback in the next few days.

Bearish View

• Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0450.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.065.
• Timeline: 1-3 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.0600 and a take-profit at 1.0670.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0525.

The EUR/USD pair tilted upwards as the Federal Reserve testified before Congress. The pair rose to a high of 1.0610, which was the highest point since Friday last week. It has jumped by more than 2% from its lowest point this week.

Jerome Powell on Fed Actions

EUR/USD and American stocks jumped as Jerome Powell testified before a Senate committee. At the same time, bond yields dropped for the second day straight, with the 10-year and 30-year falling to 3.14% and 3.2%, respectively.

In his statement, Powell said that the Fed will continue hiking interest rates until there is evidence that inflation was falling towards its 2% target. At the same time, he lamented that the labor market was extremely hot and that tightening could lead to a recession.

Analysts believe that a recession is inevitable. A poll by the Wall Street Journal showed that the possibility of a recession was 44%. Most of the economists polled cited the rising consumer inflation, low unemployment rate, and the ongoing supply chain challenges.

Still, there are some positives. The price of crude oil has slumped from $124 to less than $110. Natural gas prices have also retreated while the price of some food products have continued falling. Therefore, there is a likelihood that inflation has reached its peak.

The next key driver for the EUR/USD pair will be the testimony by Jerome Powell. Still, historically, the second day of Fed chair’s testimony does not have a major impact on currencies and stocks.

Meanwhile, Markit, a company owned by S&P Global will publish the latest flash manufacturing and services PMI numbers. Analysts expect the data to show that business activity in Europe and the US weakened slightly as inflation surged.

EUR/USD Forecast

The EUR/USD pair continued rising after the latest statement by Jerome Powell. On the four-hour chart, the pair has formed an ascending channel that is shown in purple. It is now along the upper side of this channel. At the same time, the pair has formed an inverted cup and handle pattern. The current rebound is part of the handle pattern.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the pair will have a pullback in the next few days. If this happens, the next key level to watch will be the lower side of the cup at 1.0365.

Short-term rallies will continue to offer selling opportunities, and therefore look for signs of exhaustion to jump upon

The Euro has fallen again during the trading session on Monday to reach near the 1.04 level. The area has previously been supported and is an area where we have seen a significant bounce from there. I think at this point in time it’s only a matter of finding more sellers so that we can break down below the recent low. If and when we do, it’s likely that we go looking to reach the 1.03 level, and then perhaps the 1.00 level over the longer term.

Short-term rallies will continue to offer selling opportunities, and therefore I will be looking for signs of exhaustion to jump upon. If and when that happens, I think it gives us plenty of opportunities to take advantage of “cheap US dollars.” The market has been in a downtrend for quite some time, and I don’t see anything changing as the 10-year note has seen yields rise above the 3.35% level. This is a huge level, and it suggests that the US dollar will continue to find plenty of buyers, and therefore I think it’s a situation where we can have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of a one-way trade.

If we were to turn around and take out the upside, it would have to go as high as 1.09 in order to show a complete reversal of attitude. The only way that I see this happening is if for some reason the Federal Reserve steps away from its platform of fighting inflation. I just have no interest in seeing this market as a buying opportunity, and I don’t think that the Federal Reserve has any opportunity to change its stance, because inflation is much hotter than anticipated. In other words, it’s starting to get out of control, and then we have a scenario where we could see a significant meltdown.

That being said, maybe we have a little bit of a bounce ahead of us, but that is going to be a short-term bounce at best, and therefore we should continue to see plenty of negativity going forward. You should keep an eye on the 10-year note as it has a huge negative correlation to what happens in this pair. That will more likely than not continue to be the case, and therefore one chart will lead the other.

As long as the Federal Reserve has to remain tight, the US dollar will continue to appreciate.

The euro fell on Friday as the US dollar continues to act as a wrecking ball against almost everything. The interest rates in America came out much hotter than anticipated, so it does make quite a bit of sense that the US dollar continues to strengthen, as the Federal Reserve is likely to see a reason to tighten quite significantly. Ultimately, this pair has much further to go to the downside, and the trend is very much intact.

The 50-day EMA has offered significant resistance over the last week or so, and now it looks like we are going to continue to drop down to the 1.04 level. Ultimately, anytime we rally at this point I think it will be looked at with suspicion, as we could see a lot of negativity. I think you should look for rallies as an opportunity to pick up “cheap US dollars”, as the euro is absolutely miserable at this point. In fact, the ECB tried to talk up interest rates on Thursday, which boosted the euro for about an hour.

By the time the market digested all of the information coming from Christine Lagarde, traders have decided that the ECB is behind the curve and is nowhere near catching up. Because of this, I think you are in a situation where you will see plenty of “sell the rally” type of attitude. In fact, I think that will continue to be the case through the rest of the summer, if not longer.

The 1.04 level will be the target eventually, and we may even get there rather quickly. If we break down below there, then it’s likely that we could go to the 1.02 level, possibly even down to parity which could be hit by the time we get to the end of summer. As for buying, I have no interest in doing so, but if we did break above the 1.09 level, I would have to reconsider the entirety of the trend. Above there, we have an opportunity to get to the 200-day EMA, but that seems nothing short of a dream scenario at this point. As long as the Federal Reserve has to remain tight, the US dollar will continue to appreciate. Pay attention to the bond market, as the yield differential will lead the way as well.

I’m perfectly comfortable holding a short Euro position.

The Euro has broken down significantly during the trading session on Thursday as we have broken through the bottom of the rising wedge, showing signs of exhaustion. The 50 Day EMA is an indicator that a lot of people pay attention to and has offered quite a bit of dynamic resistance. The fact that we are closing at the bottom of the candlestick is also a sign that we could get a little bit of follow-through, so I do think that it is more likely than not to have quite a bit of a continuation.

If we break down through all of this, then we could go to a low visible 1.04 level, which was the targeted level from the rising wedge. The 1.04 level then would offer support as we had bounced from there previously. If we break it down below the 1.04 level, then it’s likely that the Euro will follow part. Ultimately, I think we could go to parity, especially considering that the European Union is in serious trouble. Initially, the ECB sounded somewhat hawkish, but by the time we got through the press conference, the Euro started to fall. Ultimately, the market has shown quite a bit of negativity, showing that the ECB is not likely to be able to tighten significantly, despite the fact that they have said that they would.

The size of the candlestick is rather negative, and it does suggest that there will be follow-through. Because of this, I’m perfectly comfortable holding a short Euro position. I do think that eventually, we get a major breakdown, but in the short term it’s likely that we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, and therefore I think volatility. I would expect a lot of volatility near the announcement, and then we should see a massive reaction.

If we were to turn around a break above the 1.08 level, we still need to break above the 1.09 level to finally turn things around. If we can break above the 1.09 level, then it’s likely that we could make a move all the way to the 1.12 level and threaten a complete reversal of the trend. That doesn’t seem to be very likely to happen, considering that we have been in such a major downtrend for quite some time.