The EUR/USD has been very noisy during the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to hover just below the parity level. This is a particularly interesting pair because it is going to be highly driven by speculation on what the Federal Reserve is about to do. With the Jackson Hole Symposium going on at the moment, there is a lot of waiting around on Jerome Powell.

If the speech at 10 AM Eastern Standard Time on Friday is extraordinarily hawkish, that will probably send the Euro much lower, as the US dollar will strengthen. Even if we do rally after that speech, I suspect it is probably only a matter of time before we see sellers jump back into the market and punish the Euro. After all, the interest rate differential between the 2 is rather wide and is almost big enough to drive a truck through. Beyond that, there is a whole host of other issues in the European Union that you would have to be cognizant of.

Winter is Coming

• The most obvious issue is going to be the energy situation in the European Union, due to the fact that the Russians are holding natural gas hostage.
• At this point, it looks like it’s going to be a very brutal winter for the European Union, so it’s not a huge surprise to see the traders jumping all over the currency.
• Every time this market rallies, it’s likely that we will see plenty of sellers. The 50-Day EMA is just above the 1.02 level and is dropping quite significantly.

Even if we were to break above that level, then we have the 1.04 level to offer resistance, and then it’s possible that we could see the 1.05 level offer resistance as well. In fact, it’s not until we break the role that I would even consider buying the Euro, but really at this point in time I think that any rally at this point in time is going to be begging to see sellers come in and take advantage of “cheap US dollars.” On the downside, I anticipate that the market is going to go down to the 0.98 level, which is an area that historically has been important. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noise, and at this point, I hope it bounces so that I can start shorting.

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It’s not until we clear the 1.06 level that I would consider buying the Euro.

The Euro bounced ever so slightly during the trading session on Wednesday as the FOMC Meeting Minutes came out. There are a few comments in that release that could suggest a bit of hesitation, but we are still playing the same game of trying to determine what people on the FOMC are going to do when they don’t seem to have any idea themselves.

This sets up for more noise and chop, which has been the case for most of the year. The EUR/USD pair is like a slow-moving train wreck, as the European Union seems to be a bug looking for a windshield at this point. Nonetheless, we still must deal with the market we are dealt. I think at this point it’s likely to remain somewhat sideways as we try to figure out what we’re going to do.

We have the 50 Day EMA sitting right around the 1.03 level. One would have to think that is a relatively good sign for resistance, and even if we were to break above there, it’s likely that we will see plenty of resistance at the 1.04 level as well. In other words, this is a market that I think given enough time will probably have to bust through a lot of selling pressure to go anywhere. However, in the short term it looks like we are due for a little bit of a bounce, perhaps back to the top of the overall range.

• Underneath, I see the 1.01 level as a major support level.
• If we were to break down below that level, it’s likely that the market would see another attempt to get to the parity level given enough time.
• The period level attracts a lot of attention from a psychological standpoint, so it certainly makes sense that it makes a nice target. · If we were to break down below the parity level, then we could see the Euro get absolutely pummeled.

On the upside, it’s not until we clear the 1.06 level that I would consider buying the Euro, and it would almost certainly have to do with interest rates tanking in the United States if that does in fact happen. That does not seem to be very likely, at least not in relation to the EU.

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The price of gold fell after the largest decline in a month, as investors sought to buy the US dollar, amid increasing signs of an economic slowdown. Accordingly, bullion prices took a downward movement, and the XAU/USD gold price reached the support level of 1772 dollars an ounce before settling around the 1777 dollars an ounce before important data and events affecting the market direction and investor sentiment.

Gold is now being sold after rising for four weeks, as the US currency renewed its rise. The latest US data showed a rapid decline in manufacturing and lower homebuilders’ morale, adding to concerns about risks to global growth after the weak numbers from China.

The softness in China prompted the country’s central bank to make a surprise interest rate cut, as the Federal Reserve tightens its anti-inflation policy. This enhanced the attractiveness of the US currency while distorting the attractiveness of gold. Global holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds have shrunk over the past nine weeks.

Where is Gold headed next?

Gold’s next move could hinge on the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, which is scheduled for Wednesday. It may provide clues to the scale of the next rate hike. Ahead of its release, economist Nouriel Roubini warned that markets expecting a pivot and a Fed rate cut in 2023 “looks delusional.” Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, Director of Commtrendz Risk Management Services, said the hawkish Fed is still capping gold, which explains why it has failed to hold above $1800 an ounce convincingly. The bullion price is expected to trade between $1,760 and $1,795 in the upcoming sessions.

Before the announcement of the content of the Federal Reserve minutes, Dess, the White House economic adviser, says the US economy faces “a lot of uncertainty” in the coming year. That’s a global threat, but it must be backed by a strong labor market and new legislation. Dess added that President Joe Biden’s bill to be signed on Tuesday would provide tax subsidies for green energy and healthcare purchases that would help stabilize the US economy.

“The balance of power is with David Westin,” Diess added in an interview on Bloomberg TV, “and there’s clearly a lot of uncertainty on the 6- to 12-month horizon.” “We remain very focused on some of the global threats we face including energy markets, and the second-order effects of the war in Ukraine.” However, Dess said fears of the country entering a recession due to high inflation were met by positive economic data, including a 3.5% unemployment rate and an industrial production rate for July that beat expectations. “There is no doubt that we are in a transitional phase,” he said. “It is a transition that our economy needs to reach this more stable growth.”

Dess also said that data showing a slowing housing market was the “intended result of the Fed’s aggressive efforts” to keep inflation in check. “This is where you might see the tightening happening in the most direct way because of the effect on mortgage rates and that effect on economic activity.”

XAU/USD Gold Price Forecast Today:

• The XAU/USD gold price may continue to move in a narrow range until the announcement of factors stimulating investor sentiment today.
• It is represented by the announcement of British inflation figures and the growth rate of the Eurozone economy, then the announcement of US retail sales numbers and the content of the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve.
• The psychological resistance of 1800 dollars is still the key to crossing the bulls towards stronger ascending levels because it stimulates more technical purchases after that, the targets will be 1818 and 1835 dollars, respectively.

On the downside, breaking the support level of 1772 dollars will support the move towards the next support 1760 dollars, and from it and from the lowest of it, I prefer to think of buying gold again.

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Sterling received support near recent levels against the euro and dollar after new data from the Office for National Statistics showed UK wages were faster than expected in June, with job openings remaining high in a low unemployment environment. The GBP/USD pair collapsed towards the support level 1.2007 before settling around the 1.2090 level at the time of writing the analysis, before the announcement of the British inflation figures, and most importantly the content of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve.

Office for National Statistics said average earnings in the UK with built-in bonuses up 5.1% up from the 4.5% the market was looking for, but down from 6.2% in May. Average wages, excluding bonuses, rose 4.7% in June, ahead of the expected 4.5%, and up 4.3% in May. While earnings are still well below inflation, the BoE is likely to remain inclined to continue raising interest rates as wage adjustments remain high compared to long-term trends.

Commenting on the figures, Ruth Gregory, chief UK economist at Capital Economics said: “This is stronger than the 4.5% rate we have assumed and the consensus. With wage growth well above 3.0-3.5% rates which are in line with the 2% inflation target, this supports our view that the BoE will. It should raise interest rates more than expected to 3.00%.”

Simon Harvey, head of forex analysis at Monex Europe, says: “Another UK labor market report shows no conclusive evidence that the recession appears to be easing wage pressures. This does not bode well for the Bank of England which is actively looking for a weaker consumer background.”

The country’s unemployment rate remained at 3.8% in June, as the number of employed people aged 16 and over in the quarter increased by 160,000. The associated employee estimate for July 2022 shows a monthly increase, 73,000 more than the revised June 2022 numbers, to a record 29.7 million. The UK employment rate for people aged 16-64 fell 0.1 percentage point in the quarter to 75.5%, indicating more people are returning to the job market. Indeed, the Office for National Statistics has noted a decline in numbers classified as economically inactive.

The data has been strong and consistent with the trends of recent months, and thus does not necessarily change the rules of the game for the British Pound. However, it is strong enough to protect against heavy selling. “Even with the alternation of self-employment allowed and the recent decline in real wages, this is an impressive recovery for the UK labor market,” says Simon French, chief economist at Panmore Gordon.

Where is unemployment headed?

Looking ahead, the unemployment rate is likely to start rising and wage pressures to subside as the supply of labor in the market increases in line with rising levels of immigration and a halt in job vacancies. The number of job vacancies fell by 19.8 thousand in the August quarter to 1.27 million, the first quarterly decline since 2020. It was very encouraging to see the size of the workforce, says Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Non-UK nationals rebound in the three months to June, offsetting the persistent weakness in the local labor supply. Pantheon Macroeconomics expect the unemployment rate to start rising as the labor supply increases, relieving pressure on wages and prompting the BoE to consider ending the interest rate raising cycle.

Sterling Dollar Technical Analysis:

• GBP/USD appears to be ready for another leg down, as the pair formed a double top pattern on the four-hour time frame.
• The price is already testing the neckline around the 1.2000-1.2050 region, and a break below would confirm selling.
• GBP/USD could slide as high as the chart pattern or close to 250 pips. Note, however, that technical indicators point to a continuation of the rally.

For example, the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to indicate that the trend has a chance to go up and that support is more likely to hold rather than a breakout. The 200 SMA appears to be holding as a dynamic support, possibly sending GBP/USD to higher levels around 1.2250. The stochastic is indicating oversold or exhausted levels among sellers, so a shift to the upside means buyers are ready to take over. The RSI has a bit more room to go lower before indicating that the sellers need a break, but the oscillator is approaching oversold territory as well.

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Keep an eye on the 10 year note yields more than anything else, as it could guide you as to whether or not the dollar or the pound becomes more attractive in the short term.

• The GBP/USD currency pair fell a bit on Friday to close out the week on its back foot.
• Ultimately, we should take a look at this through the prism of fading every short-term rally that we can.
• The 1.20 level underneath is an area where we see a lot of interest, due to the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure.
• If we break down below there, then it’s likely that we could go back down to the lows of the 1.18 level.

Shorting Opportunities Likely Ahead

The market breaking above the 1.2250 level could open up the possibility of a move to the 1.24 level. Ultimately, the market is likely to see a lot of noisy behavior, but that should be expected due to the fact that the interest rate markets are all over the place as well. Keep in mind that the market is in a longer-term downturn, so one would have to assume that sooner or later we get an opportunity to start shorting again.

The 1.24 level is a major resistance barrier from intermediate time frames, so breaking above that does make a statement. However, I need to see this market take out the 1.26 level to change the overall attitude, and I think it is probably a scenario where any rally gets looked at with suspicion, and I’d be more than willing to pay those rallies as the opportunity to pick up US dollars “on the cheap.” Remember, it was not long ago that the Bank of England raised interest rates by 50 basis points, but then also stated that the UK was more likely than not going to end up in a recession.

The 50-day EMA offers a little bit of intrigue to this area, but we have sliced through it enough times in the last couple of weeks that I think it’s just more or less showing that the market is confused. This is a scenario where the interest rates in America will continue to outperform the United Kingdom, so I think it’s probably wise to keep an eye on the 10 year note yields more than anything else, as it could guide you as to whether or not the dollar or the pound becomes more attractive in the short term.

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The GBP/USD exchange rate rose by more than a percentage yesterday to 1.2277 after US CPI inflation rose 8.5% in the year to July, coming in below 9.1% in June and consensus forecast for a reading of 8.7%. Core US CPI rose 5.9% in the year to July, unchanged in June, but less than the 6.1% consensus was looking for. As a result, the US dollar fell as investors bet that peak inflation might be over, thus reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to pursue a strict policy of raising interest rates.

The GBP/USD pair is stable around the 1.2230 level at the time of writing the analysis.

The US did not actually register any inflation last month with a monthly reading of 0%, which is lower than the +0.2% reading the market had been expecting. The US dollar has been bid through 2022, in part because the Fed has led its global peers in pushing interest rates higher. Thus, exceeding the Fed’s “peak” forecast may indicate that the “peak dollar” has arrived. “Powell might have been right to switch a few weeks ago. The pressure on the Fed to be aggressive is sure to come in September. Long-term trades will rise strongly.

James Knightley, chief economist at ING Bank, said: “Low inflation in the US has shifted the odds in favor of a 50 basis point Fed rate hike in September instead of 75 basis points, but there is a lot of data that She will come every now and then.” “Finally some good news about inflation,” says Justin Wolfers, professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan. We may have seen peak inflation.” However, some economists warn that it is too simplistic to assume that inflation is about to drop sharply back to the Fed’s target of 2.0%.

“But the stabilization of core inflation highlights the challenges of easing inflation in parts of the slowly shifting CPI basket,” says Hussain Mahdi, macro investment strategist at HSBC Asset Management. He says services inflation will prove to be a thorn in the Fed’s side as consumers rebalance consumption away from goods to services, and amid rising shelter costs.

Moreover, he noted that spending is backed by a very strong labor market.

HSBC Asset Management maintains a defensive and selective investment strategy with investors potentially overestimating 2023 earnings performance and the Fed’s ability to enact pivotal policy. And if true, this will be consistent with the continued strength of the dollar. Christoph Bales, chief economist at Commerzbank, also cautioned against betting that inflation is “over”, which he says is the decline in US headline inflation driven by falling gasoline prices, in response to lower global oil prices. “It is therefore likely that the further decline in the inflation rate will be slow,” he added. “Although we can breathe a little easier after today’s data, the inflation problem is likely to be very persistent.”

Commerzbank expects US inflation to remain above 3% over the next year, despite the recession.

Sterling dollar forecast:

• The recent gains of the GBP/USD pair are beginning to break the downside trend, and it will need to move towards the 1.2330 and 1.2400 resistance levels to confirm its strength so far.
• Stability will remain below the 1.2200 support that supports the bears to stick to the general trend.
• We prefer selling sterling dollars from every bullish level.

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Gold markets are notoriously volatile to begin with, so this type of environment is only going to be exacerbated and you need to be concerned about your account more than anything else. 

• Gold markets rallied a bit Tuesday only to find a lot of resistance near the 50-day EMA.
• Furthermore, we are sitting just below the $1800 level, so it does make quite a bit of sense that we would see plenty of sellers.
• The $1800 level has been important support in the past, so it’s only a matter of time before “market memory” comes into the picture.

Finding Answers at the $1720 Level

The shape of the candlestick is a shooting star, and that of course is negative. Because of this, it’s very likely that we will continue to see plenty of downward pressure, but I don’t necessarily know that it would be the end of the gold market trying to rally, just that it might be ready to pull back. I think the real question is found answered at the $1720 level. If we break down below there, then we could put a serious attempt into the idea of breaking down below the $1680 level. If we break down below there, then the market will unwind, perhaps going down to the $1500 level.

On the other hand, if we were to break above the $1800 level, we could see a move higher, but I think it’s not necessarily until we get above the $1815 level that it becomes important. At that point, then we might make a move to the 200-day EMA. I don’t know if we can get there but obviously would make quite a statement.

When you trade gold, you need to be aware of interest rates in the United States, which spiked during the trading session, which also works against the value of gold at times. Furthermore, the US dollar strengthened, which doesn’t help gold markets overall. Because of this, I think that at the very least we are going to see a bit of a drop from here. I think the only thing you can probably count on is a lot of volatility, so you will need to be cautious about your position sizing, as it’s likely we continue to see noise overall. Gold markets are notoriously volatile to begin with, so this type of environment is only going to be exacerbated and you need to be concerned about your account more than anything else. The giveback was quite impressive.

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The S&P 500 has rallied significantly after the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, as traders rejoice that the interest rate hike was only 75 basis points instead of 100, which was feared. There are a lot of “what if’s” in this market, so we need to pay close attention to what happens next. After all, Jerome Powell did suggest that perhaps they will have to be somewhat data dependent when they are looking at inflation.

The size of the candlestick does give us a bit of a heads up as to the fact that there is plenty of momentum, so what I suspect is that we are going to rally a bit, and then fall right back down. Looking at this chart, I think there is a lot of noise between here and the 4200 level, which is a major area of resistance. If we were to break above the 4200 level, then it could turn the tide when it comes to the trend, opening up more of a “buy-and-hold” scenario. Ultimately, I don’t think that’s likely to be the case, but it’s always a possibility. 

If we turn around a break below the 50 Day EMA, that opens up the possibility of significant selling pressure, opening up a move down to the 3800 level. If we break down below there, then it’s likely that we go even lower, perhaps down to the 3700 level. Regardless, I think what we’ve got is a situation where you will continue to see volatility, and perhaps we just got a little overdone to the downside. With that being the case, it’s likely that we will continue to see a little bit of a shot higher, followed by significant selling pressure.

It’s worth noting that the market is going to be getting GDP numbers on Thursday, and it’s likely that we will see plenty of volatility after that as well. All things being equal, this is a market that has been bullish, but given enough time will probably turn things around and show signs of negativity. I would be cautious with my position sizing, because I do not think that the volatility is going to remain low for any significant amount of time.

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The price of gold crept higher as investors started the countdown to the conclusion of the main Federal Reserve meeting where US interest rates are expected to rise significantly. The price of gold rose to the level of 1728 dollars an ounce before settling around the 1717 dollars an ounce at the time of writing the analysis. Investors are pricing in a 75 basis point increase at the Federal Reserve’s July 26-27 meeting, although the outlook after that is difficult to predict.

Market participants have played down the amount of tightening needed to tame inflation, which is the Fed’s current priority, according to Bloomberg Economics, which anticipates a steeper and higher path for the federal funds rate.

Overall, the XAU/USD gold price is set for a fourth consecutive monthly loss, after falling to its lowest level since March 2021 last week as central banks tightened monetary policy to contain price pressures. While this raised fears of an economic slowdown, gold’s safe-haven appeal has been eroded by the dollar’s strength, despite the dollar’s slump from a record low in mid-July.

Commenting on the performance, Nicholas Frabel, an analyst at ABC Refinery in Sydney, said: “The US dollar is far from its highs and that may help the gold supply.” And “So far, gold’s rallies are not entirely convincing, and investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve meeting to get more information.” Instructions.”

The GDP data for the second quarter due tomorrow, Thursday, will indicate whether the United States of America is in a technical recession, although the administration of US President Joe Biden downplays the importance of the report.

Stock Market Analysis

US stocks fell after weak economic numbers and weaker expectations from the world’s largest retailer, underlining the effects of inflation pressures on consumer spending, with recession fears spreading as the US Federal Reserve prepares to deliver another massive increase. Investors are also bracing for another 75 basis point hike by Fed officials on Wednesday, with a combined 150 basis point increase through June and July marking the biggest rate hike since the early 1980s when then-chairman Paul Volcker was battling high inflation. Dim views of the economy have pushed US consumer confidence to its lowest level since February 2021, while the gauge of new home sales has fallen for the fifth time this year.

Today’s XAU/USD Gold Price Forecast:

So far, the attempts of the XAU/USD gold price to recover to the top are still weak and the gold market lacks the momentum to get out of the current downtrend, which is characterized by moving towards and below the support level of 1700 dollars an ounce. As I mentioned before, gold price attempts to recover will not succeed without moving towards the resistance levels of 1755 and 1778 dollars, respectively, and the last level is important to move towards the psychological resistance level of 1800 dollars an ounce.

On the other hand, stability below the $1700 support level will move the gold price towards stronger support levels, from which buying may be considered, the most important of which are currently 1685 and 1660 dollars, respectively. The events of today and tomorrow will have a strong and direct reaction to the gold market, so caution should be exercised.

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It is possible that we will get a little bit of a recovery due to the fact that the Federal Reserve does have that statement during the day on Wednesday, but do not be surprised if it gets sold into.

The S&P 500 fell again on Tuesday to show signs of weakness yet again. At this point, the market is likely to continue looking at the 3700 level as a potential short-term target. If we can break it down below there, and most certainly we will, the market will continue to go much lower. There is nothing on this chart that screams “I should be buying.” Unfortunately, my email account has been blown up by several people asking me what to do about massive losses, that got in “when the stock market looked cheap.”

The thing about assets that are cheap, is that they can get cheaper. (Just take a look at Ethereum as an example.) I do believe that it is probably only a matter of time before we do get some type of bounce, but that bounce will only be an opportunity for people who are stuck in horrible positions to get rid of them again. After all, this is a market that will continue to see a lot of reasons to fall, and although the 3700 level has offered a little bit of short-term support, quite frankly it’s likely that we will eventually see that level broken down.

That being said, the market is oversold at this point, so I think a bounce does make quite a bit of sense. That bounce should give us an opportunity to short this market again, and you should note that the Federal Reserve has a two-day meeting going on, so there could be statements or noise around the announcement that causes this market to go insane as well.

At this point, if we do rally from here, then it’s likely that we will see sellers get back into the market in order to take advantage of a short-selling opportunity. The 4100 level looks to be the ceiling right now, and with the 50 Day EMA breaking down below there, it’s a matter of time before the sellers jump into this market. It is possible that we will get a little bit of a recovery due to the fact that the Federal Reserve does have that statement during the day on Wednesday, but do not be surprised if it gets sold into. There are whispered numbers of a three-quarter percent interest rate hike being announced.