I think that if we get a little bit of a rally at this point, you should look for signs of exhaustion to start shorting again.

Bitcoin fell significantly on Wednesday as we begin the month of June. The “end of the month markup” that some of the larger holders have done is something that’s somewhat common in years gone by with the regulated markets, but now that the Bitcoin markets have attracted institutional money that is not regulated quite as severely, you will see these types of gains.

That being said, the market is likely to continue seeing the $30,000 level as a potential area of interest, and if we can break down below the recent lows, then it’s likely that we would go much further to the downside, perhaps opening up the possibility of a move down to the $25,000 level, maybe even the $20,000 level. Crypto has a serious problem as massive fraud and Ponzi schemes are starting to come to light, and while the Bitcoin market is not necessarily one of those, it is going to get a bit of negativity thrown at it due to the fact that some of its peers are so shady, to say the least.

The size of the candlestick certainly suggests that we are going to see further downward pressure, especially as the market has been so negative for so long. If we were to rally to the upside, the $32,500 level being broken would be bullish, but you would then immediately have to deal with the 50-day EMA, and then possibly even the $37,500 region. It is not until we can break above the $40,000 level that I would be impressed with the move, which is a 33% gain from current levels. In other words, Bitcoin has a long way to go before it changes its overall attitude, so  Idon’t have any interest in trying to buy this market. I think that if we get a little bit of a rally at this point, you should look for signs of exhaustion to start shorting again.

If you are bullish for the longer-term when it comes to Bitcoin, you probably have an opportunity to buy it at much lower levels. As monetary policy tightens around the world, it kills one of the main tenets of crypto, because money becomes a lot less available. The whole “anti-inflationary theme” has been killed, so now we have to come up with another reason for Bitcoin to exist.

Looking at this market, simply standing on the sidelines and waiting for an opportunity is what I will be doing.

The US dollar got hammered against the Singapore dollar during the trading session on Thursday, but it should be stated that the US dollar fell against almost everything, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see it happen here against the Singapore dollar. However, it is also worth noting that we have been in an uptrend for some time and money is more likely than not going to continue to flow toward the US dollar as higher interest rates continue to be a mainstay of the US situation, right along with the US dollar offering “safety.”

We pulled back from the 1.39 Singapore dollar level, falling quite drastically. However, there is still plenty of support underneath, not the least of which will be found in the current trading area of 1.3, and of course, the 50 Day EMA which is at the 1.3725 level. The 1.37 level is also supported as well, so I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before this market turns around. Bonds in America have been oversold, so a little bit of a bounce and a bit of yield softening does make sense, especially if people are starting to price in some type of recession. That will take away the “yield play” when it comes to the greenback. However, the greenback will strengthen because people will be looking to buy those same bonds they have been shunning. In other words, foreigners will convert their currencies into US dollars in that scenario as well.

It is not until we break significantly below the 1.37 level on a daily close that I would start to think about shorting this pair. Furthermore, I would need to see the US dollar shrink against almost everything, not just this market to feel comfortable. If and when that were to happen, then I can make an argument for selling. Until then, I have to look for buying opportunities and follow the overall trend. This is going to be true with a lot of emerging market currencies, although the Singapore dollar is most certainly a lot more stable than many other currencies out there that I can think of. Looking at this, simply standing on the sidelines and waiting for an opportunity is what I will be doing.