Sentiment – xMetaMarkets.com / Online Innovative Trading Facility Sun, 21 Aug 2022 11:37:55 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.1 /wp-content/uploads/2022/07/cropped-Logo-menu-32x32.png Sentiment – xMetaMarkets.com / 32 32 Technical, fundamental, and sentiment Forex and CFD market a /2022/08/21/technical-fundamental-and-sentiment-forex-and-cfd-market-a/ /2022/08/21/technical-fundamental-and-sentiment-forex-and-cfd-market-a/#respond Sun, 21 Aug 2022 11:37:55 +0000 /2022/08/21/technical-fundamental-and-sentiment-forex-and-cfd-market-a/ [ad_1]

The difference between success and failure in Forex / CFD trading is very likely to depend mostly upon which assets you choose to trade each week and in which direction, and not on the exact methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. 

So, when starting the week, it is a good idea to look at the big picture of what is developing in the market as a whole, and how such developments and affected by macro fundamentals, technical factors, and market sentiment. Read on to get my weekly analysis below.

Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment

I wrote in my previous piece on 14th August that the best trades for the week were likely to be:

  • Looking for short-term long trades in the S&P 500 Index during periods of short-term bullish momentum. However, we did not really see any bullish momentum here last week.

The news is currently dominated by the FOMC meeting minutes which were released last week, showing that the Fed remains determined to continue hiking rates until inflation is brought considerably lower, and that Fed members are worried about the economic impact of the ongoing rate hikes. Recent inflation data released in the US and Canada showed inflation slowing, but inflation in the UK was revealed last week to be still increasing, now standing there at an annualized rate of 10.3%. The shift is sentiment is towards risk-off, which has had the effect of knocking down stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, and strongly boosting the US Dollar, mostly at the expense of the commodity currencies NZD, AUD, and CAD.

It is worth pointing out that although the US stock market had been rising in recent week, the US stock market has technically been in a bear market for some time, with the US yield curve being inverted for several weeks now. The US is also arguably in a recession, having seen two successive quarters of GDP contraction, although wages growth and the job market remain relatively buoyant.

To recap there were a few other important economic data releases last week apart from the FOMC meeting minutes. The results were as follows:

  1. UK CPI data – an annualized rate of inflation of 10.3% was reported compared to the rate of 9.8% which had been expected.
  2. Canadian CPI data – a month-on-month increase of only 0.1% was reported, which had been expected.
  3. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash Rate, Rate Statement, and Monetary Policy Statement – the RBNZ hiked its rate of interest by 0.50% to 3.00%, the highest rate of any major currency, and signaled a more hawkish tightening path over the coming months.
  4. Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes – the RBA signaled an intent to take further tightening steps but did not define the path clearly.
  5. US Retail Sales data – the core data came in more strongly than had been expected, showing a month on month increase of 0.4% when a decrease by 0.1% had been widely forecast.
  6. Australian Unemployment data – there was a net loss of approximately 40k new jobs when a gain had been expected, but the headline unemployment rate fell to 3.4%.

The Forex market saw a strong rise by the US Dollar last week. The rise was broad but especially strong against the commodity currencies, especially the New Zealand Dollar.

Rates of coronavirus infection globally dropped last week for the fifth consecutive week. The most significant growths in new confirmed coronavirus cases overall right now are happening in South Korea, Moldova, the Marshall Islands, and Tonga.

 

The Week Ahead: 22nd August – 26th August 2022

The coming week in the markets is likely to show a lower level of volatility compared to last week, although there will be a release of preliminary GDP data for the US that could move the market despite the low level of important data releases due. Releases due are, in order of likely importance:

  1. US Preliminary GDP data
  2. US Core PCI Price Index data
  3. US, UK, German, and French Flash PMI data
  4. Jackson Hole Symposium (central bankers)

Technical Analysis

U.S. Dollar Index

The weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index printed a long, strongly bullish candlestick which closed right on its high, in line with the long-term trend, which is bullish. The weekly closing price is a 20-year high, and the week’s strong rise came after the price rejected the support level below just under 105.00. These are all very strong bullish signs.

It will probably be a good idea to look for long trades in the US Dollar over the coming week. This is a very powerful, long-term bullish trend in the most important currency in the Forex market, and it remains likely to continue as long as sentiment remains driven by the fear of ongoing interest rate hikes negatively impacting risky assets, with the US Dollar acting as a primary safe haven.

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GBP/USD

Last week saw the GBP/USD currency pair print a large, bearish engulfing candlestick. The British Pound was not one of the biggest losers against the strong US Dollar over the week, but this pair is technically interesting as it printed the lowest weekly close seen since the coronavirus panic in March 2020.

The price briefly traded below $1.1800 on Friday before closing a little higher than that.

The British Pound is beset by fundamental woes, including new increased inflation figures above 10%, and a Bank of England forecast of a coming recession which will last for five quarters and see GDP shrink by 2.2%.

The strength of the US Dollar and the technical breakdown we see here, plus fundamental headwinds against the Pound, see a short trend trade opportunity in this currency pair. However, it is important to use relatively tight stop losses for the British Pound, as using ATR 1 has over the years produced much better results than the more typical ATR 3.

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NZD/USD

The New Zealand Dollar was the biggest loser of all major currencies last week, despite the RBNZ’s rate hike by 0.50% to 3.00%, the highest rate of any major currency. However, there was no technical breakdown below recent support.

It is notable that the price closed right on the low of the week, which is a bearish sign.

There may be further bearish momentum in the NZD/USD currency pair over the coming week, with all the commodity currencies weak and the NZD weakest of all showing this can be an interesting currency on the short side.

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Natural Gas

Although we are seeing a bearish market with most commodities and risky assets shrinking against safe havens such as the US Dollar, we have seen Natural Gas gain strongly over the past week to make new multi-year highs.

Volatility is very high and price movement can be extremely choppy.

Long natural gas can be an attractive trend trade as we are seeing a breakout in the price chart. However, anyone trading natural gas should be very, very mindful of the extremely high level of volatility we have seen here over recent months, and trade very small position sizes which respect the volatility.

As commodities in general and energies are quite weak, I do not have very strong faith in a long trade here, which is another reason to keep the position size very small if you are trading natural gas over the coming week.

 

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Bottom Line

I see the best opportunities in the financial markets this week as likely to be:

  1. Short of the GBP/USD currency pair, and
  2. Long of Natural Gas.

Ready to trade our weekly Forex forecast? Here are the best Forex brokers to choose from.

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Technical fundamental and sentiment Forex and CFD market /2022/08/21/technical-fundamental-and-sentiment-forex-and-cfd-market/ /2022/08/21/technical-fundamental-and-sentiment-forex-and-cfd-market/#respond Sun, 21 Aug 2022 10:15:53 +0000 /2022/08/21/technical-fundamental-and-sentiment-forex-and-cfd-market/ [ad_1]

EUR/USD

The Euro has been pummeled during the week, as it looks like we are going to put a serious threat on the parity level. If we break down below the parity level, then the market is likely to go much lower, perhaps down to the 0.98 level. A short-term rally is possible, but I think the 1.03 level will offer a significant amount of resistance. Any rally at this point in time that shows signs of exhaustion will be an opportunity to start shorting and picking up “cheap US dollars.”

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GBP/USD

The British pound has broken down significantly during the week, as we continue to see the US dollar act like a wrecking ball against almost everything. Any rally at this point in time will continue to see a lot of selling pressure, so I think that much like the Euro, I think you are likely to see people willing to pick up “cheap US dollars” on any rally. It’s obvious that people are starting to worry about the central bankers next week spoke in the market as they will continue to talk about massive amounts of interest rate hikes. On the downside, the market could go all the way down to the 1.15 level.

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USD/CAD

The US dollar has rallied a bit during the course of the week, to test the 1.30 level. The 200 Week EMA sits just below, just as the 50 Week EMA is starting to turn toward it. At this point, it’s likely that we will continue to see little bits and pieces of support, but this is a market that continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, as we are trying to grind higher based upon the overall uptrend as defined by the channel that we have been in.

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USD/JPY

The US dollar has rallied rather significantly during the trading week, to break above the 1.37 level at one point. However, we have seen a lot of noise since then, and have pulled back. Nonetheless, we are still very bullish, so I think at this point in time we are going to look at a market that continues to be more or less a “buy on the dip” attitude, with the ¥132 level underneath offering significant support. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to be very noisy, with the bond markets having a major influence.

 

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NZD/USD Forex Signal: Risk-Off Sentiment Punishes Kiwi /2022/07/06/nzd-usd-forex-signal-risk-off-sentiment-punishes-kiwi/ /2022/07/06/nzd-usd-forex-signal-risk-off-sentiment-punishes-kiwi/#respond Wed, 06 Jul 2022 20:30:35 +0000 https://excaliburfxtrade.com/2022/07/06/nzd-usd-forex-signal-risk-off-sentiment-punishes-kiwi/ [ad_1]

The outlook for the pair is still bearish even after it formed a morning star pattern. 

Bearish View

  • Set a sell-limit at 0.6197 and a take-profit at 0.6127.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.6242.
  • Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

  • Set a buy-stop at 0.6197 and a take-profit at 0.6242.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.6100

The NZD/USD pair has been in a strong bearish trend as investors embrace a risk-off sentiment. The pair crashed to a low of 0.6127, which was the lowest level since May 25th, 2020. It has fallen in the past six straight weeks and retreated by 17% from its highest point in 2021.

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Risk-Off Sentiment

The NZD/USD pair has crashed in the past few months as investors move to the safety of the US dollar. The dollar index has surged to a multi-year high of over $106 as investors, businesses, and individuals move to its safety.

The strength of the greenback is mostly because of the soaring inflation around the world and the actions by the Federal Reserve and other banks. The bank has already hiked interest rates by 150 basis points and Jerome Powell has hinted that more is yet to come.

Therefore, many people have shifted their currency holdings from their local currencies to the higher-yielding US dollar. As a result, the euro and Japanese yen crashed to the lowest level in over 20 years.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar has also dropped because of the relatively weak economic data from the country. Data published on Tuesday showed that business confidence tumbled to -65% in the second quarter as companies continue dealing with the rising inflation. Weak business and consumer confidence is usually a negative sign because it tends to affect spending.

New Zealand is a commodity-rich country. As such, the economy tends to do well when some prices are rising. Data published by ANZ showed that the commodity price index dropped by 0.4% in May.

Therefore, investors will be waiting for the upcoming RBNZ interest rate decision scheduled for next week. Like other banks, analysts believe that the bank will hike again even as the country faces stagflation.

NZD/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the NZD/USD pair has been in a strong downward trend in the past few days. It has managed to drop below the important support levels at 0.6242 and 0.6195. The pair has also formed a descending channel that is shown in purple and moved below the 25-day moving average.

Therefore, the outlook for the pair is still bearish even after it formed a morning star pattern. As such, the next key level to watch will be at this week’s low of 0.6125.

NZD/USD

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Behavioral Sentiment & Technical Considerations Key /2022/07/05/behavioral-sentiment-technical-considerations-key/ /2022/07/05/behavioral-sentiment-technical-considerations-key/#respond Tue, 05 Jul 2022 11:07:44 +0000 https://excaliburfxtrade.com/2022/07/05/behavioral-sentiment-technical-considerations-key/ [ad_1]

The USD/CAD has come off of highs and is bouncing along important mid-term support levels in early trading this morning.

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After nearly hitting the 1.29670 ratio on the 1st of July and threatening to test higher values seen via a one month technical chart, the USD/CAD has reversed lower.  As of this writing the Forex pair is near the 1.28450 mark, and earlier this morning flirted with lows displayed yesterday around the 1.28380 level. Technically the USD/CAD is hovering near important mid-term support, and if there is enough selling pressure the 1.28180 could find it is challenged.

Compared to many of the other major currencies the Canadian Dollar has done better against the USD since November of 2021. Yes, the USD/CAD has climbed upward from its mark of 1.22850 which was seen in October of 2021, but the move higher has been choppy and filled with volatile trading. Speculators of the USD/CAD technically can certainly follow trends, but they need to acknowledge the rides up and down sometimes look like a series of rather steep ski slopes.

A major behavioral sentiment consideration today is the fact U.S financial institutions started disappearing from the trading landscape last Friday, as their employees escaped for a long holiday weekend.  The past couple of trading days have seen the USD/CAD sold in a healthy fashion, but can its results be trusted? Will the return of full volume today and tomorrow alter the direction of the USD/CAD as equilibrium is found? Conservative traders may want to watch the first few hours of trading this afternoon to get a better feel for the direction of the USD/CAD via their technical perspectives.

While many traders may believe the USD/CAD has been overbought the past handful of months, finding the precise time when a meaningful move lower is going to happen remains difficult.  Intriguingly as the USD/CAD comes within eyesight of the key support level of 1.28180, which was last seen on the 28th of June traders may become instinctively bearish. If this price level falters the USD/CAD could aim for the 1.27930 value last seen on 13th of June, which was two days ahead of the U.S Federal Reserve’s official rate hike.

Caution may prove to be a good policy today for speculators. The bullish trend of the USD/CAD certainly still exists, even though support levels are momentarily being challenged. If the USD/CAD should start to move higher upon the return of U.S financial institutions, it could signify that resistance levels will start to become vulnerable and price action may touch higher values near term.

Canadian Dollar Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 1.28690

Current Support: 1.28350

High Target: 1.29130

Low Target: 1.28030

USD/CAD

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More Downside as Crypto Sentiment Fall /2022/07/05/more-downside-as-crypto-sentiment-fall/ /2022/07/05/more-downside-as-crypto-sentiment-fall/#respond Tue, 05 Jul 2022 02:46:57 +0000 https://excaliburfxtrade.com/2022/07/05/more-downside-as-crypto-sentiment-fall/ [ad_1]

The BTC/USD pair will likely keep falling as bears target the support at 17,000.

Bearish View

  • Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 17,000.
  • Add a stop-loss at 22,000.
  • Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

  • Set a buy-stop at 20,500 and a take-profit at 22,000.
  • Add a stop-loss at 18,000.

The BTC/USD pair remained solidly below the important support of 20,000 during the weekend as sentiment waned. Demand for Bitcoin and other risky assets has also struggled as investors price in a more hawkish Federal Reserve. It is trading at $19,100, which is about 41% below the highest point in June this year.

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Bitcoin Demand Wanes

The BTC/USD pair has declined sharply as investors worry about the cryptocurrencies industry. There have been important news from the sector. For example, in June, Celsius, a leading cryptocurrency bank announced that it was suspending deposits and withdrawals. The company attributed this situation to the significant pullback of all cryptocurrencies.

Last week, Three Arrows Capital announced that it was filing for bankruptcy. This happened as the company faced significant margin calls from leading exchanges. As a result, this made it the biggest crypto-focused hedge fund to go under. The company lost most of its money when Terra and its ecosystem crashed.

Meanwhile, in a statement, Voyager Digital, a major cryptocurrency exchange, announced that it was suspending withdrawals and deposits. The company is now raising capital to save its business.

Another major news was that BlockFi, once valued at over $4 billion was being acquired by FTX for about $25 million. Without the bailout, the company would have probably gone bankrupt.

Therefore, the BTC/USD pair has dropped sharply as investors continue worrying about their holdings. Most of them are worried about whether their exchanges will be next to suspend withdrawals and deposits.

At the same time, there have been significantly low buyers of cryptocurrencies. Recent data shows that the number of people creating accounts with exchanges has been in a strong downward trend. Volume of Bitcoins traded has also fallen recently. All this happened while the US dollar has maintained a bullish trend.

BTC/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USD price dropped sharply in June. Shortly afterwards, the pair bounced back and retested the key resistance at 21,888, where it struggled to move above. It has now been retreating and is trading at 19,110, which is slightly above last month’s low of 17,623.

The pair has also moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It has also moved between the first and second support levels of the standard pivot points. Therefore, the BTC/USD pair will likely keep falling as bears target the support at 17,000.

BTC/USD

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Fragile Sentiment and Quick Turn Lower this Morning /2022/06/30/fragile-sentiment-and-quick-turn-lower-this-morning/ /2022/06/30/fragile-sentiment-and-quick-turn-lower-this-morning/#respond Thu, 30 Jun 2022 01:49:04 +0000 https://excaliburfxtrade.com/2022/06/30/fragile-sentiment-and-quick-turn-lower-this-morning/ [ad_1]

BNB/USD has mirrored its major crypto counterparts with a nosedive this morning towards important support, as trading conditions have displayed nervousness.

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Volatile conditions seemingly are ahead today for the broad cryptocurrency market, and BNB/USD is mirroring the nervous sentiment early this morning. As of this writing, BNB/USD is near the 219.0000 level with fast price action. A sharp downturn has been exhibited across the board in the cryptos. Selling in the broad market yesterday has turned into greater price velocity downwards today.

Certainly BNB/USD like its major counterparts could reverse higher, but a lack of buyers appears rather evident as Binance Coin has shown little in the way of ability to stage a strong move higher. BNB/USD is still lurking near important support levels and this morning’s breach of the 220.0000 may have sparked some additional selling. If BNB/USD is not able to climb above the 220.0000 with a sustained move and challenge short term resistance slightly below the 221.0000 juncture this could be a negative indicator.

Skeptics still seem to outnumber optimists within the broad marketplace, and BNB/USD is a reflection of the large digital asset world because Binance Coin serves as the ‘token’ for the Binance exchange which is powerful part of cryptocurrency eco-system.   If BNB/USD continues to see pressure downward, the 219.0000 to 218.0000 should be monitored if this range begins to produce price action. A move below the 218.0000 level if it is sustained could signal additional selling will mount quickly.

The five day chart is clearly showing that BNB/USD is testing lows, but if a one month chart is used by technical traders it becomes clear there are potential lower depths that can be explored. BNB/USD is a fast moving cryptocurrency under normal conditions, but if the digital landscape becomes exceptionally volatile near term, Binance Coin can produce sudden spikes which can be dangerous.

Traders should use entry price orders to ignite trades today and conservative leverage is urged.  Traders who aim for lower targets by shorting BNB/USD when it comes close to resistance which proves durable may be making a worthwhile wager. Selling Binance Coin near the 220.4000 to 220.7000 levels could be considered if present conditions are maintained by conservative speculators. Traders should not be overly ambitious with their targets, but aiming for the 219.0000 to 218.5000 levels may prove to be opportunistic.

Traders should monitor not only Binance Coin this morning if they are considering a short position of BNB/USD, but also its major counterparts.  If other major cryptocurrencies continue to show weakness today, BNB/USD could be ready to fall to lower depths again.

Binance Coin Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 220.9600

Current Support: 219.0900

High Target: 228.7500

Low Target: 204.1000

BNB/USD

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Binance Slide Lower Underscores Negative Sentiment /2022/06/14/binance-slide-lower-underscores-negative-sentiment/ /2022/06/14/binance-slide-lower-underscores-negative-sentiment/#respond Tue, 14 Jun 2022 12:40:40 +0000 https://excaliburfxtrade.com/2022/06/14/binance-slide-lower-underscores-negative-sentiment/ [ad_1]

BNB/USD stumbled to long term lows a handful of hours ago as the broad cryptocurrency markets remain in a downward spin.

BNB/USD briefly touched the 203.0000 price level a handful of hours ago. The lower mark this morning penetrated last month’s low seen on the 12th of May when BNB/USD momentarily hit the 205.0000 mark before reversing higher. However this morning’s lowest depth did not produce the same violent reversal higher as it did on the 12th of May and this could prove significant.

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The move higher produced in the second week of May when long term lows were seen, saw a rise in price to nearly 280.0000 within the same day. A reproduction of that upwards reversal today likely has little faith to build on. Meaning speculators remain extremely wary and are likely braced for more negative price movement, after yesterday’s crash within the broad cryptocurrency marketplace.

As of this writing BNB/USD is traversing near the 228.0000 level and the recent lowest depths of Binance Coin are still within sight.  Intriguingly while many of the major cryptocurrencies are now testing values not seen since 2020, BNB/USD still has not fallen below values seen in early March of 2021. Optimists may stand up and cheer and claim this means a reversal higher can be produced near term. However, skeptics of which there are likely many may look at technical charts, and believe if the 200.0000 level is broken lower in BNB/USD another steep fall may occur in Binance Coin value.

Binance Coin is used to facilitate trading on the Binance exchange and is speculated on too by traders. It should be noted the Binance exchange had to stop transacting trades in Bitcoin yesterday momentarily when transaction levels became extreme. While this may not have a direct correlation on the price of BNB/USD, the fact that Binance had to halt trading should serve as a cautionary reminder regarding the volatility which clearly exists currently.

If the broad digital asset market remains nervous, and it likely will, BNB/USD may continue to see tests of recent lows again.  The near term promises to be volatile and traders who are contemplating selling positions cannot be blamed. Risk management needs to be practiced by all traders under the present trading conditions.

If BNB/USD fails to produce a significant rise above the 240.0000 level in the short term, this may be a sign that another move lower could be demonstrated sooner rather than later.  If support near the 212.0000 level starts to be flirted with this would be a negative sign. Speculators need to be ready for price velocity. If the 200.0000 mark level fails to hold back selling positions today, BNB/USD could see a test of February 2021 prices around the 185.0000 juncture.

Binance Coin Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 250.4000

Current Support: 212.0000

High Target: 279.9000

Low Target: 185.5000

Binance

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Test of Short-Term Support and Troubling Sentiment /2022/05/19/test-of-short-term-support-and-troubling-sentiment/ /2022/05/19/test-of-short-term-support-and-troubling-sentiment/#respond Thu, 19 May 2022 11:04:53 +0000 https://excaliburfxtrade.com/2022/05/19/test-of-short-term-support-and-troubling-sentiment/ [ad_1]

BNB/USD is traversing near important short-term support, and the potential combination of troubling behavioral sentiment may spark volatile conditions near term.

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BNB/USD is trading above 294.0000 as of this writing and it is within sight of important short-term support levels. While Binance Coin has certainly risen off of lows seen this time last week, when BNB/USD briefly spiked to lows beneath the 224.0000 ratio, nervous trading conditions remain abundant and speculators should brace for the potential of additional volatile days ahead.

BNB/USD is near crucial lows and if the 290.0000 mark becomes vulnerable in the short term another dose of strong selling could erupt.  Speculators with their eyes on upside price action based on the notion the cryptocurrency market remains oversold, may want to keep their ambitions in check and use fast hitting take profit orders when higher moves have attained perceived technical resistance to cash in their profits. From a behavioral sentiment viewpoint the broad cryptocurrency market appears to be fragile.

The risk reward scenarios for technical traders based on the strong bearish trend which have been loud and clear in the marketplace short and long term, underscores the potential for further moves downward. The ability of BNB/USD to climb off of last week’s low water marks was impressive, but Binance Coin has shown limited ability to climb above and sustain prices over the 300.0000 realm in the short term and continues to look rather weak.

Speculators who believe BNB/USD will explore lower depths may want to remain conservative, and launch their selling positions after a brief run higher towards anticipated resistance levels. Because of the widespread nervous conditions which have been demonstrated in cryptocurrencies the past week, traders need to remain cautious regarding the use of leverage and entry price orders are definitely urged. Selling BNB/USD and looking for support levels near the 293.0000 to 291.0000 ratios could prove to be a solid worthwhile wager short term.

If broad market nervousness spills over into BNB/USD again and support near the 290.3500 level begins to falter this could set off alarm bells among speculators. A move below the 289.0000 mark could spur greater price velocity in the near term. If selling pressure mounts a retest of the 278.0000 price junctures would not be a surprise. Yesterday’s trading, and the previous two days have produced incrementally lower resistance levels which is a potential negative price signal for Binance Coin.

Binance Coin Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 301.4500

Current Support: 290.3500

High Target: 311.1500

Low Target: 271.0000

BNB/USD

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Uneasy Calm Evident as Nervous Sentiment Grows /2022/05/04/uneasy-calm-evident-as-nervous-sentiment-grows/ /2022/05/04/uneasy-calm-evident-as-nervous-sentiment-grows/#respond Wed, 04 May 2022 10:54:05 +0000 https://excaliburfxtrade.com/2022/05/04/uneasy-calm-evident-as-nervous-sentiment-grows/ [ad_1]

ADA/USD is lingering near unsettling support levels, and speculators who have been trying to seek a reversal higher may be growing uneasy.

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ADA/USD is hovering near the 78 cents level as of this writing, and important support levels are within sight.  The broad cryptocurrency market is showing a rather widespread amount of nervous sentiment as many of the major digital assets linger near extremely important mid-term support and many others are within shouting distance of long term junctures.

ADA/USD is remarkably close to both mid and long term support levels. If buyers remain in a non-supportive mode and the price of Cardano continues to erode, ADA/USD could with one swift stroke of volatility suddenly be next to depths it has not traversed since early February of 2021. Current support levels of 77 cents have been flirted with recently and the inability of ADA/USD to provide a solid reversal higher is troubling.

Optimistic speculators who have bought ADA/USD may still be waiting for additional buyers to step into the market, but will they arrive?  Incrementally the trend remains bearish, there is no way to sugar coat this technical viewpoint. While some traders may point to the current depths being tested by ADA/USD as a great opportunity to buy when the price is cheap, others may believe value of Cardano can drop lower.

Traders should expect volatility near term because of the consolidation many of the major cryptocurrencies are displaying near critical support levels.  The uneasy calm in digital assets is unlikely to remain and speculators should be braced for the potential of violent trading. The question day traders need to consider is where the greatest amount of risk and reward can be perceived. Because of the rather weak reversals upward, and the almost daily flirtation with lower values, negative sentiment seems to be the stronger potential impetus.

If the 78 cents ratio fails to be sustained by ADA/USD, traders could not be blamed for thinking lower depths will be explored.  If ADA/USD were to fall below the 0.77550000 mark and not be able to climb above this mark in the near term, it could set off a test of the 77 and 76 cents junctures.

Certainly there will be slight reversals higher, but the question is how much strength these moves will generate. Conservative traders may want to use slight moves upward as a way to ignite their short positions with entry price orders above current market values. Speculators need to understand that if the current quiet market disappears, ADA/USD could become very fast and having risk management ready with stop loss and take profit orders could prove effective.

Cardano Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.78480000

Current Support: 0.77350000

High Target: 0.90780000

Low Target: 0.80100000

ADA/USD

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Nervous Sentiment Swirls as Dangerous Range Builds /2022/04/13/nervous-sentiment-swirls-as-dangerous-range-builds/ /2022/04/13/nervous-sentiment-swirls-as-dangerous-range-builds/#respond Wed, 13 Apr 2022 11:15:32 +0000 https://excaliburfxtrade.com/2022/04/13/nervous-sentiment-swirls-as-dangerous-range-builds/ [ad_1]

ETH/USD has not been able to escape the clutches of a bearish trend, which has developed in a strong fashion the past week and a half.

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As of this writing, ETH/USD is trading near the 3060.00 level, the cryptocurrency has come off lows seen yesterday when Ethereum approached the 2945.00 price realm. Yesterday’s high of nearly 3086.00 was achieved after the lowest values were tested, but the reversal upwards then ran into stiff headwinds. ETH/USD is now within the grasp of a dangerous price range, and day traders will have to make wise decisions if they plan on wagering.

ETH/USD lows yesterday brought it within sight of values not seen since the 23rd of March. These values are still above the lows seen in the middle of March when ETH/USD traded near a value of 2500.00 before securing a strong bullish trend higher through the 2nd to the 5th of April, when ETH/USD traded above the 3500.00 juncture.

However, the current price of ETH/USD is floating pretty much between the lows seen around the 14th of March and the highs seen on 3rd of April. Traders now have to decide if the bullish demonstration achieved simply was a temporary phase and the long term bearish trend will resume in full force. Speculators can also take the view point that what has been experienced in the past week and half of trading has been profit taking and that ETH/USD will be able to climb higher again sooner rather than later.

The broad cryptocurrency market is displaying nervous sentiment.  The downward momentum has not been able to produce a sudden reversal higher with a substantial kick. Perhaps that is a sign of a maturing marketplace, but it also may be a sign that traders who have been burned pursuing upside may not be willing to put their money on the line quite yet. If ETH/USD sustains its current price range in the near term, it may be a signal additional lows will be seen.

Conservative traders may want to wait for momentum to lead the way. By placing a sell order below the current market price, below perceived support levels, speculators may want to simply try and follow the trend towards yesterday’s lower value depths. If the 3035.00 to 3025.00 levels are challenged and made to look vulnerable, pursuing short term trades with a target near the 3000.00 mark may prove to be a worthwhile wager for bearish speculators.

Ethereum Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 3082.00

Current Support: 3032.00

High Target: 3152.00

Low Target: 2925.00

ETH/USD

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