Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) stabilized at a decrease in the recent trading at the intraday levels, to record slight daily losses until the moment of writing this report, by -0.01%. It settled at the price of $9.279 per million British thermal units, after its decline during yesterday’s trading by -0.03%.

September gas futures contracts in Nymex settled at $9,330 per million British thermal units, an estimated increase of 13.7 cents from Tuesday’s close, while October futures contracts rose 14.5 cents to $9,300.

NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. Spot gas prices fell in most areas of the US, even as hot weather continued on the West Coast by 31.0 cents to $8.935.

Prices stabilized after a volatile session on Tuesday when they hit $10 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2008, before pulling back on news of a delay in the Freeport LNG plant’s return to operation, which will continue to affect demand by hurting the ability to Sending fuel abroad.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is set to provide its weekly update on domestic inventories later Thursday, with the market anticipating above-average storage that may ease some concerns.

Natural Gas Technical Outlook

• The price is trying to gain positive momentum that might help it breach the pivotal resistance level 9.600.
• The resistance caused the price to rebound from its recent highs.
• It is trying to drain some of its clear overbought by the relative strength indicators, especially with the influx of negative signals from them.

All of this comes in light of the dominance of the main bullish trend over the medium and short term along with major and minor slope lines, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period, with the positive pressure continuing to trade above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

Therefore, our expectations indicate that the scenario of a rise in natural gas during its upcoming trading is likely, but on condition that it first overcome the obstacle of the resistance level 9.600, and then target the resistance level of 10.70.

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The BTC/USD has been very quiet during the trading session on Tuesday as we continue to hang around the $21,000 region. At this point, the market is likely to see a bit of hesitation until we get through the Jackson Hole Symposium. This is because various central bank speakers will be bloviating on what they are going to do next, in the fight against inflation. While many crypto traders have no idea, the reality is that whatever happens in the fiat world greatly influences what happens in the crypto world.

If monetary policy tightens, which is essentially what all central banks have been suggesting, it will work against risk-taking, and therefore work against the value of Bitcoin. After all, Bitcoin needs to see a lot of risk appetite to go higher. The massive selloff from 4 days ago suggests that we are going to see further downside momentum. If we break down below the $20,000 level, it’s likely that we would continue to go much lower. If we were to break down below that level, could open up a move all the way down to the $12,000 level, which has been a longer-term target for quite a few traders.

Market Struggles to Go Higher

• The 50-Day EMA sits just above, and it should offer quite a bit of resistance as well. The Bitcoin market is one that I would look to fade rallies at the first signs of exhaustion because the $25,000 level has offered quite a bit of resistance.
• After that, the market could go to the $28,000 level, which extends to the $32,000 level. It’s not until we break through all of that that I would consider the overall trend of the market changed.
• Because of this, it’s very likely that we will continue to see a lot of hesitation to go higher, so fading rallies probably work.

If and when we finally get down to the $12,000 level, at that point I would start to build a longer-term position as we could enter an accumulation phase. Bitcoin has done this before, fallen quite drastically and then did nothing for a couple of years before taking off. I don’t know that we are done selling off, because I don’t think that the risk appetite has returned strongly enough to send the market much higher.

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The market is more likely than not going to have more of a “fade the rally” type of situation

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has gone back and forth during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to see a lot of confusion in financial markets overall. After all, oil is the lifeblood of the markets, so therefore it does make quite a bit of sense that we would see a neutral candlestick as there are so many questions.

• The $87 level underneath has been short-term support, while the $94 level above has been resistance.
• The 50 Day EMA is starting to drop at this point, and perhaps reach the 200 Day EMA.
• We are getting relatively close to a “death cross”, which is a very negative situation, and could send algorithmic traders to the downside.

The market has been drifting lower for a while, and now that we are hanging around this consolidation area, it is worth noting that you could make out a little bit of a falling wedge here, so we might get a bounce. Any rally at this point in time is probably short-lived though, perhaps allowing just a bit of a move toward the $100 level. 

Crude oil forecast for today

One thing that you need to keep in mind is that there is a lot of concern when it comes to global demand, as we are starting to see economies slow down. Furthermore, we also have to keep in mind that the US dollar has been strengthening, and that means it’ll take less of those dollars to buy oil, all things being equal. The market is more likely than not going to have more of a “fade the rally” type of situation, or perhaps just a breakdown below the recent support that allows oil to drop down to the $80 level over the next several weeks.

It’s not until we break above the $100 level on a daily chart that I would consider going long in this market, but I think it would take a significant amount of upward momentum and strength to get there. I just don’t see how that plays out, but you always have to have the other hypothesis in the back of your head, even if it goes against almost everything that you know or see. That being said, until we break above there, I’m looking at rallies as an opportunity to get short again.

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If we break above the highest of the trading session on Tuesday, then we continue toward the 4500 level.

• The S&P 500 index did very little during the Friday session other than frustrate traders.
• The market look like it was going to fall out of bed, only to turn around and settle on a slightly positive day.
• The hammer does suggest that there is still quite a bit of buying pressure here, but quite frankly can be interesting to see how Friday plays out as there are a lot of options coming due.

Noisy Behavior Ahead

The market will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior more than anything else, so you will need to be cautious about your position sizing. Quite frankly, I did have a major problem getting a handle on the overall market during the day, as it was one of those days that you are generally better off sitting out. That being said, I do think that a market is more likely a place where you have to let it prove itself. We have had a massive rally, and it’s difficult to get overly excited about a market that has shot straight up in the air. A lot of people out there believe that the Federal Reserve is going to step away from quantitative tightening, while the Federal Reserve swears up and down it’s going to do it. In this scenario, somebody is going to lose, and my suspicion is this going to be the American public.

Having said that, it looks to me like the markets have nowhere to be in the short term, and therefore you have to look at it through the prism of a grind until we get to next week. As soon as we get the next week and get central bankers bloviating about what they are going to do to fight inflation, that’s when momentum picks back up again. There have been a lot of people out there reading dovishness coming out of the Federal Reserve, while there have been several counterbalancing that suggest that they “misunderstood the Fed.” This has been the game that the Federal Reserve’s been playing for 14 years, and now that they are no longer day trading the stock markets, it’ll be interesting to see whether or not they feel the need to save Wall Street as their interests don’t necessarily line up anymore. If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for Friday, we will probably go looking to the 200 day EMA for support. If we break above the highest of the trading session on Tuesday, then we continue toward the 4500 level.

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Expect a lot of volatility going forward as we have seen getting here.

• The NASDAQ 100 Index was very volatile on Tuesday as we had no real certainty by the end of the day.
• The market has been all over the place, so it does make a certain amount of sense that there are a lot of anxieties at the moment.
• The market has previously been on fire, so it’s interesting to suggest that we are at a major inflection point.

Important Candlestick Wednesday

The market has recently broken above a major resistance barrier in the form of the 13,500 level, so it certainly makes quite a bit of sense that it is offering a short-term support level. That’s exactly what we saw during the trading session on Tuesday, as we plunged lower only to see buyers step in and pick the market back up. By the end of the day, we were essentially unchanged, so it’s difficult to read much from this candlestick. It is because of this that I believe the Wednesday candlestick is probably going to be one of the most important ones over the last couple of months.

If we break above the top of the candlestick, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the 200-day EMA, which is currently right around the 14,065 level. After that, we have a significant amount of resistance at the 14,250 level, and that probably makes a significant target for those willing to get bullish at this point. On the other hand, if we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the day, we could go lower to look toward the 13,000 level, an area where I expect to see a lot of support at based on “market memory”, as there was a lot of resistance in that general vicinity.

Keep in mind that the NASDAQ 100 is led by just a handful of companies, so you could probably call it the “NASDAQ 7″ or so. Pay attention to all the usual actors such as Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, and the like. If they are rising, this index will rise right along with them. On the other hand, if they have a rough go, then we will see this market pullback to that 13,000 level. Either way, expect a lot of volatility going forward as we have seen getting here.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index continued to rise during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve gains for the fifth consecutive day, by 0.71%. It added to it about 239.57 points, and settled at the end of trading at the level of 34,152.02.  to close the index at its highest level since late April/ April, after rising 0.45% during trading on Friday.

Walmart (WMT) was the strongest performer on the Dow, with the stock up 5.1% at the close, after the company said it no longer expects a significant decline in profits during fiscal year 2023. It also announced second-quarter results that topped estimates driven by a rise Prices and lower supply chain costs.

In addition, Home Depot’s second-quarter financial results topped Wall Street views as demand for home improvement remained strong despite the inflationary environment, while the retailer reiterated its full-year outlook, and the company’s shares jumped 4.1% to be also among the top gainers among companies. listed on the indicator.

Economic Data Outlook

US industrial production rose 0.6%, compared to expectations for a 0.3% increase in a Bloomberg survey and after a flat reading in June, capacity utilization rose to 80.3% from 79.9%, compared to guidance, which rose to 80.2%.

Housing starts fell 9.6% in July to an annual rate of 1.446 million units, the lowest since February 2021 and below market expectations of 1.54 million, according to the US Commerce Department.

Technically, the index continues to rise amid being affected by the positive support provided due to its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days. This is light of its exit from the range of a bearish corrective price channel that limited its previous trading in the short term. This is shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period, reaching In its recent trading to attack the resistance level 34,118.

We notice the start of a negative crossover on the RSI, after reaching overbought areas, which may curb the index’s upcoming gains, especially in the event that the resistance level 34,118 remains intact.

Therefore, we expect more rise for the index during its upcoming trading, but on the condition that it first overcome the resistance obstacle 34,118, and then target the resistance level 34,820.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to record losses for the second day in a row, by -1.23%. It lost about -402.230 points and settled at the end of trading at the level of 32,396.171, after it fell slightly during Monday’s trading by a rate of -0.14%.

Stocks opened lower as geopolitical tensions heightened due to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, defying Chinese authorities who have warned of dire consequences if the trip occurs.

The Dow Jones index led the decline in Wall Street, the profit-related decline in Caterpillar Inc. put pressure on the Dow Jones index. Visa shares also affected the performance of the index, after it fell on the negative statements by the great investor Bill Ackman, who called while speaking, credit card giant Visa is offering payment services to Pornhub.

CNN reported that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei is the first time a US House speaker has visited Taiwan in 25 years. The news report said her trip comes at a low point in US-China relations and despite the Biden administration’s warnings of pause, China considers Taiwan part of its territory and has warned against responding to the visit.

US Economic News

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reportedly said on Tuesday that inflation figures are “too high” and that the Fed’s work to ease price pressures in the US economy is “not yet complete.” Speaking on the same day, Chicago Fed President Charles said Evans said a 50 basis point increase in the target rate at the September meeting was reasonable and had not hesitated to support another 75 basis point increase.

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Meester said Tuesday in a live interview with The Washington Post Live that the decline in second-quarter gross domestic product reported last week, the second consecutive quarterly decline, does not mean the US economy is in a recession. Meester said the recent moderation in consumer demand is what the Fed wants to see, and that bringing demand back in line with supply is key to slowing inflation.

US job opportunities fell to 10.7 million in June from 11.3 million in the previous month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The estimate in a survey compiled by Bloomberg was about 11 million. Employment fell to 6.4 million from 6.5 million bringing the employment rate down to 4.2% from 4.3%. At the same time, the number of people leaving their jobs decreased but remained above the level a year ago as workers were confident of finding another job.

Dow Jones Technical Outlook

Technically, the index faced some pressure as a result of the relative strength indicators reaching overbought areas. The beginning of the emergence of a negative crossover in them, especially amid its trading along a corrective bearish slope line in the short term. This comes despite the continuation of the positive support for its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

Therefore, our expectations indicate more decline for the index during its upcoming trading, as long as the resistance 33,240 remains intact, to target the support level 31,885.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve gains in a session characterized by volatility by 0.23%, It gained about 69.86 points, to settle at the end of trading at the level of 31,037.69, after declining during Tuesday’s trading by -0.42 %.

Energy, financial and consumer discretionary stocks were the only losers, while the utilities sector led the way.

US stocks rose on Wednesday after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June monetary policy meeting showed the central bank’s eagerness to tame overheating inflation.

Members of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Committee decided at its meeting last month that another 50 or 75 basis points hike in the policy rate was “likely appropriate” in July, as it struggles to rein in inflation.

At its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, its largest increase in nearly 30 years, in response to levels of inflation not seen in nearly four decades. The central bank has raised interest rates in each of the past three meetings, with further hikes likely in the upcoming meetings.

According to the document, participants have realized that policy constancy can slow down the pace of economic growth for some time, but see that a return of inflation to 2% is critical to maximizing job opportunities on a sustainable basis, and the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled for 26 and 26 Next July 27.

Technically, the index’s rise came with the support of the influx of positive signals in the relative strength indicators. The index hovered for the fourth consecutive session around the main support level 31,000, in light of the dominance of the short-term bearish corrective trend along a slope line, with the negative pressure continuing for its trading below the simple moving average for a period of 50 In the previous days, we also notice in the midst of this that the RSI indicators reached overbought areas, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a return to the index’s decline during its upcoming trading, especially as long as the resistance level 31,000 remains stable, to target the support level 29,653.30.

I suspect we may be drifting a little bit higher, only to turn around and fall apart again.

The S&P 500 was all over the place on Tuesday as it looks like traders are trying to figure out what to do with themselves. At this point, the 3800 level seems to be a bit of a magnet for the price, so it’s likely that we will revisit this area often. That being said, there are a lot of questions out there when it comes to the future of the market, and what we are going to do going forward.

The candlestick does look a little bit supportive, as it is a bit of a hammer. In this scenario, buyers could come in on dips, but I think it’s going to be short-lived in general. After all, the market has plenty to worry about, not the least of which will be the fact that the Federal Reserve is going to continue to tighten monetary policy, so it’s very likely that we continue to see downward pressure over the longer term. Because of this, the market continues to see opportunities for selling on rallies that show signs of exhaustion, something that I think is almost certainly going to be coming.

The 3900 level is an area that should be resisted, right along with the 50-day EMA which is breaking below the 4000 level and dropping. The 3750 level should offer support, and if we break it down below there it’s likely that the market goes down to the 3700 level. After that, the market could unwind quite drastically. The attitude of the market continues to be one that’s very tentative, but keep in mind that bear market rallies can be very violent. That might be part of what we had seen during the day, as the futures markets had melted down during Asian and European trading. Nonetheless, we are not that far from seeing selling pressure again, so I will simply stand on the sidelines and wait to see how it plays out over the next couple of days. Remember, Friday has the jobs number coming out of the United States, and it’s worth noting that the market will probably be kind of quiet once we get to Thursday. I suspect we may be drifting a little bit higher, only to turn around and fall apart again.

I anticipate that at the first signs of exhaustion traders will willingly jump into this market and start shorting again.

The S&P 500 was noisy during the Friday session as traders started to focus on the Independence Day holiday. It is worth noting that although there will be a certain amount of electronic trading in the futures market, the underlying index will not be operating. Because of this, liquidity will be a major issue as it is Independence Day in the United States, and quite frankly most participants won’t be involved in the futures market either. You could see rather significant jumps in the price of the futures contract in this scenario, so be cautious about trying to trade this market.

However, when you look at this chart it does tell you that at least there was an attempt to save the S&P 500 on Friday, suggesting that perhaps it is only a matter of time before we get a bit of recovery. The 3900 level above causes a bit of resistance on the way up from when I can see, but I think there’s more of a fight near the 4000 level. The 4000 level also brings in a bit of psychological resistance and the 50-day EMA. In that scenario, I think it’s going to be difficult to get above there, but if we do then I anticipate another leg up to the 4200 level, an area where we have seen quite a bit of selling pressure previously. Anything above that level could change the overall trend, but right now that seems to be unlikely.

As long as the Federal Reserve is going to tighten monetary policy, I find it difficult to think that the S&P 500 has a real shot at a decent recovery. With that in mind, I anticipate that at the first signs of exhaustion traders will willingly jump into this market and start shorting again. Quite frankly, there is a lot of negative news out there, but we have not priced in a lot of the earnings recession that is almost certainly coming down the road. Because of this, I think that the earnings season noises are going to be extraordinary this time and will continue to put a little bit of an anchor around the neck for this market. A breakdown below the lows opens up the possibility of 3500, which I do think is a realistic target over the next several weeks.