For four trading sessions in a row, the price of the USD/JPY currency pair is settling in a narrow range between the support level of 131.73 and the resistance level of 133.90. It settled around the level of 133.11 at the time of writing the analysis. The currency pair may remain moving in a narrow range until the release of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve this week. The importance of the minutes is due to the fact that the markets and investors derive from it the date and amount of raising US interest rates in the coming months.

Dollar-Yen Economic Outlook

A measure of manufacturing health in the United States recorded its second largest decline ever, in a sign of the continued slowdown in American activity. However, the scale of the collapse has led some economists to question the outcome. The New York Empire State Headline Index for August read -31.30. The market was looking for a slowdown from 11.10 to 5.50 June.

The market slump is the second largest drop in the survey going back to 2001.

The US has recorded two consecutive quarters of growth, thus meeting the common definition of recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research which tells the US government’s reading of the state of the economy says those benchmarks are too simplistic and should still call a recession.

Pantheon Macroeconomics says the result means other regional surveys will be watched with increased interest in the wake of the New York shock. The survey also offered some optimism, particularly regarding inflation. The price-paid component fell by 8.8 points, thanks in large part to lower oil prices.

Inflation expectations are very important to the outlook for the US economy, Fed policy and the outlook for the US dollar. Indeed, there were hopes that the US economy had experienced peak inflation with the July key rate rising 8.5% in the year to July, dropping to less than 9.1% in June and consensus forecast for a reading of 8.7%. Core US CPI rose 5.9% in the year to July, unchanged in June, but less than the 6.1% consensus was looking for. The US dollar fell as investors bet that peak inflation might be over, thus reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to pursue a strict policy of raising interest rates.

In the event that peak inflation is indeed surpassed, the assumption that the Fed will slow will persist, making it difficult for the dollar to push towards new highs.

Dollar against Japanese Yen Forecast

There is no change in my technical view for the performance of the USD/JPY currency pair on the daily chart.

• The currency pair is in a relatively neutral performance, and the bias will be bullish if it returns to move towards the resistance levels 134.20 and 135.00, respectively. 
• The dollar-yen pair’s move towards the support level 131.55 will have a strong impetus to retreat to the vicinity of the psychological support 130.00.
• The currency pair will be affected today by the announcement of housing and industrial production data in the United States.

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We expect the rise of natural gas to continue during its upcoming trading.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) settled on an increase in its recent trading at intraday levels, to record daily losses until the moment of writing this report, by -1.29%, to settle at the price of $8.157 per million British thermal units. This is after its rise in trading yesterday and for the fifth day of out of 6 sessions, a rate of 4.30%.

Lower production and more expectations for early summer heat sent natural gas futures higher again on Tuesday. July rose 34.1 cents to $8,394.

Maintenance continued to hamper production levels with production estimated at less than 94 billion cubic feet on Tuesday, this was about 1 billion cubic feet lower than Bloomberg’s estimate the day before and well below 97 billion cubic feet last winter.

Countries across Europe are demanding US exports of LNG to offset Russian gas supplies. The continent is trying to accelerate efforts to distance itself from Russian gas to protest the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine and to bolster long-term energy security.

Meanwhile, Russian gas producer Gazprom said it was continuing to supply gas to Europe via Ukraine through the Sudga entry point, with volumes seen on Wednesday at 51.6 million cubic meters, up from 49.3 million cubic meters on Tuesday.

Technically, the price continues to rise amid the continued positive pressure of its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days. This is in addition to the influx of positive signals on the relative strength indicators, after reaching oversold areas. The dominance of the main bullish trend in the medium and short term along a slope line, as it is It is shown in the attached chart has the price succeeded in yesterday’s trading of breaching the current resistance level 8.054.

Therefore, we expect the rise of natural gas to continue during its upcoming trading, as long as its stability is above 8.054, to target the pivotal resistance level 8.870.

We expect more rise for natural gas during its upcoming trading, as long as it remains stable above 7.00.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) stabilized at an increase in its recent trading at the intraday levels, recording slight daily losses until the moment of writing this report by -0.76% to settle at the price of $7.198 per million British thermal units. 5.70%.

Natural gas futures rose for the third day in a row on the back of escalating uncertainty over global supplies. This is especially after it was reported that Russia had halted natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, because they failed to respond to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand to pay for energy imports in Russian rubles, according to a report. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reportedly said the move amounted to “another Kremlin provocation”, claiming that Moscow was using gas to “blackmail” the region.

Although Russia’s halt to gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria was not expected to have a significant impact on global balances, the possibility of further cuts to European countries was keeping the market on alert and fueling volatility.

Prices settled on Thursday as the market had already priced that escalatory step, amid the start of mass testing around Beijing and the partial closure of the coastal city of Qinhuangdao. This is amid measures taken to combat the outbreak of the emerging Corona virus in China, and a report indicating that major European energy companies are ready to comply with Russia’s request for payment in rubles.

Meanwhile, the expiration of the May contract in Nymex led to a sharp buying spree in the last half hour of Wednesday’s close.

The next round of inventories data from the US government is expected to focus traders’ concerns. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due to release its weekly storage report later Thursday. Expectations are for storage construction of about 40 billion cubic feet. This compares to a Bloomberg survey of 11 injections ranging from 20 billion cubic feet to 50 billion cubic feet. cube. Last year, the inventory report recorded an injection of 18 billion cubic feet in the same period, and the five-year average is 53 billion cubic feet.

Technically, the main bullish trend dominates the natural gas trading movement in the medium term and along a slope line, as shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily). The positive pressure of its trading continuing above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days, in addition to that, we notice the start of the influx of positive signals. With the relative strength indicators, after they reached areas of severe oversold, and exaggeratedly compared to the price movement, to be what is known as the positive divergence in them, which increases the positive pressures on the upcoming trades.

Therefore, we expect more rise for natural gas during its upcoming trading, as long as it remains stable above 7.00, to target the pivotal resistance level 8.054.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) stabilized on the rise during the recent trading at the intraday levels, to record slight daily losses until the moment of writing this report, by -0.26%. It settled at the price of $5.534 per million British thermal units, after rising in yesterday’s trading by It reached 4.72%.

Natural gas futures rose on Wednesday with the Nymex May contract beginning to be treated as a spot month, building significant momentum even as domestic demand approaches fading. May futures advanced 27.5 cents on the day and settled at $5.605 per million British thermal units. The June contract rose 27.7 cents to settle at $5.658 per million British thermal units.

Natural gas markets have been volatile in recent weeks, driven more by geopolitical news than by natural fundamentals. Prior to Wednesday, US futures had faltered in the previous two days, after rising throughout the previous week.

US production held above 95 billion cubic feet on Wednesday, well above its March low of 93 billion cubic feet, according to Bloomberg.

Looking at the storage report to be released from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) later Thursday, estimates announced by Bloomberg through Wednesday show average injections of 25 billion cubic feet for the week ending March 25. Forecasts ranged from 19 billion cubic feet to 37 billion cubic feet.

For the same period last year, the EIA report recorded injections of 7 billion cubic feet, while the five-year average is 23 billion cubic feet withdrawn.

Technically, the price is preparing to attack the important resistance level 5.710, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend in the medium term along a slope line. This is shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period, supported by its continuous trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days. We notice negative signals started to appear on the relative strength indicators, after they reached overbought areas, which may curb the upcoming price gains.

Therefore, our expectations suggest that natural gas will rise during its upcoming trading, but we need to confirm this by first breaching the aforementioned resistance 5.710, and then targeting the pivotal resistance level 6.412.

We expect natural gas to rise during its upcoming trading.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) stabilized at an increase during the recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve slight daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 0.16%. It settled at the price of $4.942 per million British thermal units, after declining in Friday’s trading by It reached -0.80%. During the past week, natural gas rose by 2.15%.

Natural gas futures fell on Friday after a two-day rally, as markets digested forecasts of warmer weather and new shutdowns to combat the coronavirus outbreak that could signal the looming effects of the pandemic on global energy demand. April gas futures contracts in Nymex settled at $4.863 per million British thermal units, down 12.7 cents on the day. The May contract fell 11.9 cents to $4.902.

Meanwhile, mid-range weather models were warmer Thursday through Friday, according to NatGasWeather. A short bout of cold air is still expected in northern US states from March 26-28, but it is “not quite as cold” as previous forecasts. After that the company expects to resume the “warmer trend” pattern in the last days of the month through April, reducing gas demand.

Meanwhile, production remained below its early-month high of 95 billion cubic feet but rose above 94 billion cubic feet on Friday – after hovering around 93 billion cubic feet earlier in the week, according to Bloomberg estimates.

In the Russian-Ukrainian war, world leaders are pushing for an investigation into Russia’s repeated attacks on civilian targets, including air strikes on schools, hospitals, and residential areas. After the Kremlin said on Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin had told German Chancellor Olaf Schulz in a phone call that Ukraine was suspending talks with “unrealistic proposals,” according to news reports. Separately, US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping held talks on Friday, with the US threatening action if China supports Russia in its war with Ukraine.

Technically, the price settled at the resistance level 4.954. This is the resistance that we had referred to in our previous reports, to gather the positive momentum needed to breach it. This is due to the influx of positive signals on the relative strength indicators, and under the control of the main bullish trend in the medium term along a slope line. This is shown In the attached chart for a period of time (daily), and is also benefiting at the same time from the positive support due to its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

Therefore, we expect natural gas to rise during its upcoming trading, especially if it breaches the resistance 4.954, and then targets the resistance level 5.710.