The ETH/USD has dipped a little bit during the trading session on Wednesday but found buyers on the dip to continue to hang around the 50 Day EMA. It looks as if we are trying to form a little bit of a short-term base, and whether or not we can take off from here is still open for debate.

If we break down below the $1500 level, then it opens up more selling pressure for the Ethereum market, perhaps opening up a move all the way down to the $1200 level. The $1200 level is the top of a previous consolidation area, so there should be a little bit of “market memory” in that area. Breaking down below that level then opens up the possibility of a move down to the $900 level.

Waiting for “The Merge”

• The Ethereum market is a little bit different than some of the other crypto markets right now because we do have “The Merge” coming in the next several weeks, but it’s also worth noting that the market will continue to see a lot of questions when it comes to risk appetite in general.
• Even though Ethereum is probably going to be quite strong over the longer term, there is a lot of institutional money out there that is not willing to put a lot of risk on right now.
• Furthermore, it’s obvious that there is a bit of a ceiling in the market near the $2000 level, especially now that the 200 Day EMA is sitting in that same general vicinity.

Speaking of the $2000 level, if we were to break above there, then is very likely that we would enter a new bullish phase, sending this market much higher. In that general vicinity, I think that you would see a lot of money go flying into this market. Alternately, if we do break down from here, we could see the Ethereum drop all the way down to the $400 level. This would go in line with the Bitcoin market breaking down, which looks like it could. I recognize that we have “The Merge” coming in the next couple of weeks, but it would not be the first time that we have seen a “by the news, sell the announcement” type of trade work itself into the marketplace.

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• BTC/USD has drifted a little bit lower during the trading session on Monday, losing 1%.
• We are sitting in an area that has been supported a couple of times in the past, and now looks to be important from a short-term perspective.
• The $21,000 level has been an area that people have been fighting over for a while, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see this market mess about in this area.

I anticipate that there is probably a lot of support extending down to the $20,000 level, so in this area, I would anticipate that there probably will be plenty of buyers. However, if we do break down below the $20,000 level, it is likely that the Bitcoin market will start to fall rather drastically, and probably drag the rest of the cryptocurrency market with it. It is worth noting that the US dollar is strengthening quite drastically, and therefore will have an effect on Bitcoin. Furthermore, as monetary policy continues to tighten, people will worry about risk appetite. Risk appetite falling leads to lower pricing of Bitcoin and other cryptos in general.

Rallies at this point will more likely than not end up being looked at with suspicion, with the 50 Day EMA sitting just below the $24,000 level offering a bit of resistance. Beyond that, we have the $25,000 level, which has recently offered quite a bit of selling pressure. Because of this, I think you need to keep looking at this market through the prism of one that is in a downtrend, and that has not changed. In fact, it’s very likely that we will continue to see a lot of negative pressure, and a breakdown below the $20,000 level could kick off a bigger move to the downside. If that happens, we could see Bitcoin unwind all the way down to the $12,000 level over the longer term. It is worth noting that the $12,000 level with where the entire bullish run had kicked off from.

On the upside, if we can clear the $25,000 level, then it’s likely that we will go looking to reach the $28,000 level, which is the beginning of a major area of noise that extends all the way up to the $32,000 level.

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This has been a nice little pullback and I think a lot of traders will look at the US dollar as being relatively “cheap”, at least in the short term.

• The US dollar turned around against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as we had broken below the ¥132.50 level.
• The ¥132.50 level is an area that has previously been resistant and supported, so a certain amount of market memory comes into the picture.
• The fact that we have turned around so violently is a good sign, and I think we are going to continue to see the uptrend respected, as long as we don’t get some type of major selloff in the US dollar overall.

Keep an Eye on Bonds

Yields had been crushed for a while, and that has had a lot to do with what happened with the Japanese yen over the last couple of days. After all, a lot of traders started to recognize that the Bank of Japan may not have to be as aggressive in buying bonds as it had been previously, to keep yields down. If that’s going to be the case, then they may not have to “print” as many yen as thought. However, as you’ll start to rise again, the Japanese will have to start buying more bonds. So, there you have it, this is where we are right now, watching the bond markets trying to figure out where we are going next.

This pair tends to be particularly sensitive to the 10-year yield, which of course shot straight up in the air during the session. Because of this, we started to see the Japanese yen give up some of its gains as the central bank will have to get aggressive again if this ends up being a bit of a trend. Yields have quite a way to go because we are nowhere near the neutral rate in the United States.

Ultimately, I think that the uptrend needed some type of pullback, and we have had that. Whether or not this is it could be a completely different question, but right now this has been a nice little pullback and I think a lot of traders will look at the US dollar as being relatively “cheap”, at least in the short term against the yen, maybe some other currencies. In fact, we saw the US dollar pick up momentum against the euro and the pound at the same time, showing that this is a worldwide move.

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After reversing from its highs achieved last week, the USD/CAD has found what appears to be durable short-term support and moved upwards this morning.

The USD/CAD is trading near the 1.30045 vicinity of this writing.  After falling through the 1.30000 mark on the 8^th of July, in early trading this Monday the USD/CAD currency pair has been able to muster upwards bullish behavior and is again threatening key resistance levels which if toppled could spark additional speculative action to the upside.

Bullish Behavior in USD/CAD has started to Build Again via Technical Action

The USD/CAD continues to traverse within a range that is challenging long term highs which have not seen a serious test of values above the 1.31000 mark since November 2020. Fundamentally the price of energy products remains high, but oil has seen some of its higher values erode over the past few weeks incrementally and other commodity prices have begun to stumble as well. This is not written as a prediction that crude oil prices are going to remain stable and even move lower, merely an observation of market action and the potential that inflation threats are starting to de-escalate.

• The USD/CAD 1.30000 mark remains a critical psychological mark for traders.
• If the USD/CAD breaks above and sustains the 1.30100 level it could be a bullish signal.

The USD/CAD was able to touch a high of nearly 1.30880 on the 5^th of July.  On the 6^th of July the price of the USD/CAD currency pair once again moved towards this mark, but the price reversed lower and on the 8^th of July the Forex pair touch nearly 1.29355. In early trading today after testing these depths again, the USD/CAD has begun to climb and its ability to topple the 1.30000 with relative ease is noteworthy.

A Slight Move Higher Could Signal Bullish Behavior has Room to Roam in USD/CAD

The USD/CAD remains within the upper tiers of its value technically and while the run higher on the 5^th of July did run out of power, it remains an interesting target for traders with a bullish perspective.  If the USD/CAD is able to break above the 1.30100 resistance level which is relatively nearby this could be a signal that buying firepower could cause technical traders to believe speculative positions aiming for the 1.30150 to 1.30200 could be intriguing wagers, particularly considering the USD/CAD traded near 1.30300 at the end of last week.

Bullish speculators should practice their risk management wisely. The USD/CAD like all other Forex pairs is proving volatile within the current trading landscaped due to complications the U.S Federal Reserve is causing via its interest rate policy and its unclear outlook as U.S economic conditions seemingly offer conflicting data on a daily basis.

Canadian Dollar Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 1.30125

Current Support: 1.29850

High Target: 1.30525

Low Target: 1.29100

DOGE/USD is trading above 6 cents in early trading this morning.  This value is far better than the ratio demonstrated this past weekend, when Dogecoin moved slightly below the 5 cents level during the massive selloff which hit the entire cryptocurrency market. Yesterday’s trading produced a late short-term high for DOGE/USD when it was able to briefly flirt with the 7 cents mark. Since hitting this juncture, DOGE/USD has traversed lower with its movement essentially mirroring the results of other cryptocurrencies.

While speculative bulls certainly welcomed the reversal higher demonstrated the past couple of days in DOGE/USD, skeptical sellers have likely been wondering if and when the bearish trend will reignite.  DOGE/USD remains locked within a steep downward cycle which has not been able to generate much upside movement for sustained durations, except for the occasional bursts higher allowing some traders to try and take advantage of perceived support levels and bet on temporary pushes upward.

Traders need to remain alert when they wager on DOGE/USD. Considering the notion that DOGE/USD was trading near the 5 cents level on Saturday and it came within sight of the 7 cents juncture yesterday, risk management considerations need to be made accordingly. Moves of twenty percent in one day are not for the weak of heart. Stop loss and take profit orders are urged for speculators who want to wager on Dogecoin.

The move higher the past two days raises the potential for a return to the bearish momentum which has been demonstrated for a long time.  The broad cryptocurrency market has not been able to hold onto its gains the past twelve hours and an erosion of values. Important short term support levels are in clear sight, if DOGE/USD were to suddenly challenge the 6 cents levels it would not be a shock. Traders do have to accept the fact that positions in DOGE/USD are a pure wager.

DOGE/USD has produced a polite rally higher in the past two days of trading, but its recent downturn may raise the suspicion that selling pressure is again about to be displayed within the cryptocurrency. Traders willing to bet on a lower move may be making the logical choice, but they need to use careful risk taking tactics. Entering positions with DOGE/USD should be done with entry price orders and speculators need to be cautious.

Dogecoin Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.06669000

Current Support: 0.06060000

High Target: 0.07100000

Low Target: 0.05337000

BNB/USD is traversing near important short-term support, and the potential combination of troubling behavioral sentiment may spark volatile conditions near term.

BNB/USD is trading above 294.0000 as of this writing and it is within sight of important short-term support levels. While Binance Coin has certainly risen off of lows seen this time last week, when BNB/USD briefly spiked to lows beneath the 224.0000 ratio, nervous trading conditions remain abundant and speculators should brace for the potential of additional volatile days ahead.

BNB/USD is near crucial lows and if the 290.0000 mark becomes vulnerable in the short term another dose of strong selling could erupt.  Speculators with their eyes on upside price action based on the notion the cryptocurrency market remains oversold, may want to keep their ambitions in check and use fast hitting take profit orders when higher moves have attained perceived technical resistance to cash in their profits. From a behavioral sentiment viewpoint the broad cryptocurrency market appears to be fragile.

The risk reward scenarios for technical traders based on the strong bearish trend which have been loud and clear in the marketplace short and long term, underscores the potential for further moves downward. The ability of BNB/USD to climb off of last week’s low water marks was impressive, but Binance Coin has shown limited ability to climb above and sustain prices over the 300.0000 realm in the short term and continues to look rather weak.

Speculators who believe BNB/USD will explore lower depths may want to remain conservative, and launch their selling positions after a brief run higher towards anticipated resistance levels. Because of the widespread nervous conditions which have been demonstrated in cryptocurrencies the past week, traders need to remain cautious regarding the use of leverage and entry price orders are definitely urged. Selling BNB/USD and looking for support levels near the 293.0000 to 291.0000 ratios could prove to be a solid worthwhile wager short term.

If broad market nervousness spills over into BNB/USD again and support near the 290.3500 level begins to falter this could set off alarm bells among speculators. A move below the 289.0000 mark could spur greater price velocity in the near term. If selling pressure mounts a retest of the 278.0000 price junctures would not be a surprise. Yesterday’s trading, and the previous two days have produced incrementally lower resistance levels which is a potential negative price signal for Binance Coin.

Binance Coin Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 301.4500

Current Support: 290.3500

High Target: 311.1500

Low Target: 271.0000

The pair will likely keep rising as investors target the key resistance at 1.0650. 

Bullish View

• Buy the EUR/USD and a take-profit at 1.0650.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0450.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 1.0480 and a take-profit at 1.0390.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0550.

The EUR/USD pair rallied to the highest level since May 11th ahead of the upcoming Euro area consumer inflation data. It rose to a high of 1.0560 as investors price in a more hawkish European Central Bank (ECB). The pair has risen by almost 20% from its lowest level this year.

EU Inflation Data Ahead

The euro rose against the US dollar after more ECB officials pointed to more interest rate hikes. In a statement last week, the head of the German Central Bank made the case of a rate hike in July. Further, in a separate statement, Christine Lagarde said that she was leaning towards a rate hike in July.

The loudest voice came on Tuesday when the head of the Dutch central bank said that the bank should consider a 0.50% rate increase in July. If this happens, it will be the biggest single interest rate hike that the bank has implemented ever.

Therefore, the EUR/USD pair will react mildly to the latest inflation data that will come out today. Economists expect the data to show that the bloc’s CPI rose to 7.5% in April while core CPI rose to 3.5%.

While these numbers are important, they will likely be similar to the preliminary data that Eurostat published two weeks ago. As such, they will not have a major impact on the EUR/USD pair.

The pair also rose even after the relatively strong US retail sales numbers. The data revealed that the headline retail sales rose to 8.19% year-on-year and by 1.0% on a month-on-month basis. These numbers were better than what analysts were expecting. Core retail sales rose by 0.6%., signaling that consumer spending was rising.

Other data showed that the country’s manufacturing and industrial production numbers rose by 0.8% and 1.1% in April.

EUR/USD Forecast

The EUR/USD pair invalidated the bearish flag pattern that was forming on the four-hour chart. Now, it has managed to cross the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the overbought level. The Stochastic Oscillator moved above the overbought level.

A closer look shows that the pair retested the tip of the triangle pattern shown in pink. Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as investors target the key resistance at 1.0650. The alternative scenario is where the pair drops below 1.0440.

SOL/USD is within sight of highs recently made, but the incremental gains attained by Solana remain under the shadow of speculative unease.

SOL/USD is trading above 56.0000 as of this morning, and Solana was able to trade above 57.0000 earlier in the day. On the 12^th of May during the cryptocurrency crash, SOL/USD went below the 37.0000 ratio. To put things into even better volatile speculative perspective, SOL/USD was trading above 143.0000 on the 2^nd of April. Thus, as of this morning Solana is trading roughly at 2/3’s less than its value one and a half month ago.

However, since hitting the low water mark during the broad cryptocurrency market bedlam displayed last week, SOL/USD has produced a rather polite incremental climb higher. Two days ago Solana traded above the 59.0000 price level, and for the moment this mark seems to be a rather high target for speculators who may be interested in trying to aim for this ratio as a take profit goal. However, while the broad cryptocurrency market remains nervous, traders will likely remain rather jittery about pursuing price ambitions which may seem too far away.

SOL/USD has the capability of trading fast and changes of value by one USD can develop fast.  Under the present market conditions speculators are urged to use entry price orders to pursue their wagers. While trading for the moment has the feel of a rather tranquil setting, this may prove to be rather temporary.

The recent climb of SOL/USD in the past few days may also lead to skeptics believing that Solana has produced a little too much optimism among buyers. If the level of 55.5500 begins to see a challenge below, traders who want to wager on selling positions may believe the 55.0000 price is a legitimate target. If this ratio falters and the price of SOL/USD begins to demonstrate velocity within a bearish trend, technical traders may believe the 51.6000 level is a support ratio which could be tested.

The fast trading conditions which overtook SOL/USD have become more tranquil for the moment.  However traders should not be lulled to sleep by the quiet atmosphere currently being seen. If the broad cryptocurrency market begins to produce nervous selling again, SOL/USD could certainly see lower prices challenged quickly. In the short term it appears SOL/USD may be traversing near resistance levels which could prove to be durable, and short sellers may want to wager on downside motion.

Solana Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 57.7800

Current Support: 55.1300

High Target: 60.3200

Low Target: 49.7400

The Euro has bounced ever so slightly during the trading session on Friday, limping into the weekend. At this point, the market looks as if it is ready to go much further, but we may get a short-term bounce in the meantime. This would make a certain amount of sense considering that we have just broken through massive support, and maybe getting a little bit oversold from the short-term perspective.

On the upside, the 1.05 level is where we had broken down from, so would make quite a bit of sense to revisit that area. Between there and the 1.06 level I would anticipate seeing a lot of noise and resistance, so I will be looking for an exhaustion candle in that region to start shorting again. After all, the US dollar continues to be like a wrecking ball against almost everything, as it is by far the strongest currency out there.

The European Central Bank has a lot of issues right now, not the least of which will be trying to protect an economy that is having issues with energy. That almost certainly means a slowdown, so at this point, I would be cautious about trying to play any bounce. On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, you have the Federal Reserve which is more than willing to get hawkish and tighten the screws on monetary policy. With that being said, this is a market that is on a one-way path to lower pricing.

You want to look for some type of value when buying a currency, and this is a perfect example of that. Simply jumping in and shorting this market right away is somewhat reckless, although it almost certainly is the right thing to do over the longer term. I will be looking for that bounced offer “cheap US dollars” that I can pick up value based upon.

Given enough time, I believe that this market could go to the parity level, although that is a major psychological area that will attract a ton of attention. This does not necessarily mean that it happens quickly, but unless the Federal Reserve changes its overall tune, not to mention the ECB, there is almost no reason to think that we will not make it sometime in the next several weeks, or perhaps couple of months.

ETH/USD has staged a reversal higher in early trading this morning, but this has not swept away nervous sentiment which technically still remains vivid.

As of this writing, ETH/USD is near the 3000.00 level, which is an important psychological mark for speculators of Ethereum.  The past few weeks of trading within ETH/USD have proven difficult for optimistic bullish speculators who believed Ethereum, along with its major counterparts, had dusted off its long term bearish trend and was ready to shine.

Yesterday’s trading in ETH/USD actually took the cryptocurrency to a depth of nearly 2800.00, which is a price that had not been seen since 18^th of March. This date in the middle of March however was a period in which ETH/USD had started to spark higher after hitting a low of nearly 2440.00 on the 12^th of March. The bullish rally which started in the middle of March began to reverse low in the first week of April.

Trading sentiment has become fragile in the broad cryptocurrency market and ETH/USD has certainly experienced some painful selloffs in recent days.  Speculators may be considering the notions of false rallies and false correlations as they try to gauge the near term and wagers. Yesterday’s fall to a one month low and sudden reversal higher may have ignited some buying, but the question is if it can endure and current resistance levels near the 3050.00 can actually be penetrated higher.

ETH/USD is within a very speculative trading range and rather intriguing correlations are beginning to take hold as to why Ethereum and the broad cryptocurrency market are struggling.  Technical traders may want to take a look at the NASDAQ 100 and compare it to the results of ETH/USD the past year; they look oddly similar in some respects. However, this doesn’t mean the results can be proven. Although, it does suggests ‘riskier’ assets are under pressure as some speculative investors search for more tranquil assets.

If ETH/USD can sustain a price above the 3000.00 level this may be a positive short term indicator, but if the cryptocurrency struggles and stays beneath this juncture it could mean more selling pressure will ensue. Nervous conditions continue to roil cryptocurrencies and ETH/USD has not escaped this cautious behavioral sentiment. Selling ETH/USD in the near term when it approaches technical resistance may prove to be a worthwhile short term wager.

Ethereum Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 3043.00

Current Support: 2962.00

High Target: 3116.00

Low Target: 2773.00