Ultimately, I need to see some type of momentum or supportive candle that I can jump on to take advantage of the overall momentum. 

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially rallied on Tuesday but gave back gains at the 50-day EMA again. This indicator continues to be important, and the fact that we could not break back above it could be a little bit of a “heads-up” as to the short-term directionality of the market. There is still plenty of support underneath, and perhaps the market feels the need to test it, as we have seen so much hesitation to go higher.

At this point, it could be a situation where traders are simply worried about demand going forward, as growth is all but written off in the short term. After all, if economies are not growing, they are not looking likely to demand the line of crude oil. That being said, it’s only a matter of time before demand comes back into the picture, especially due to the fact that the overall production fell off rather hard during the pandemic. Furthermore, we have to pay close attention to the GDP numbers overall, due to the fact that the demand will be reflected in the chart as well.

Looking at the start, you can see that the overall attitude of the market has been bullish for some time, despite the fact that we had pulled back a bit. The uptrend line underneath will continue to be important, especially with the $104 level looking so important previously. Ultimately, I think that the market breaking down below the uptrend line could open up significant downward pressure, perhaps opening up the possibility of the market moving to the $100 level. And he moved below the $100 level could open up a massive pullback and fall in this market, but at this point, I think we have plenty of support underneath that we can take a look at. On the upside, if we were to break above the $112 level, then it’s possible that we could go looking to reach the $116 level, perhaps even the $124 level after that. Ultimately, I need to see some type of momentum or supportive candle that I can jump on to take advantage of the overall momentum. Until something changes fundamentally, I would anticipate that oil still has a bit of a bid underneath it.

The Australian dollar feel a bit on Tuesday as Americans came back from the Memorial Day holiday. That being said, it looks as if the 50-day EMA is exerting a certain amount of influence as well, due to the fact that the market had bounced from just below it. The 0.72 level continues to be in focus, and it is somewhat encouraging that the market recovered during the day. The question is whether or not we can break above them with any type of force?

If we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Tuesday, that would turn it into a “handyman” candlestick, which is a very bearish formation. In that scenario, it’s very likely that we would see follow-through with the Aussie targeting the 0.71 level, and then perhaps the 0.70 level after that. The 0.70 level has been historically important, but it’s also worth noting that we have sliced through it recently. In other words, it’s just the target at this point.

We are still very much in a downtrend, and at this point most of the US dollar selling is probably people speculating that Jerome Powell is going to be browbeaten into loosening monetary policy by Joe Biden. Quite frankly, Joe Biden is probably going to tell him to become even more aggressive with his tightening, because inflation heading into a midterm election is a recipe for disaster for the Democrats. Although the Federal Reserve is supposed to be apolitical, reality has taught us much differently.

If we can break above the 0.72 level, then it’s possible that the rally “has legs.” At that point, I would anticipate that the market could aim for the 200-day EMA, which is near the 0.7266 level. A break above that would confirm an uptrend, at least from a technical standpoint, and certain algorithms would probably jump into the fray, and push the Aussie toward the 0.75 level, an area that has been important previously. At this juncture though, I am very hesitant to short the US dollar, although it’s been a very nice pullback that so many traders would have looked for. Volatility continues to pick up and make trading very difficult. I just don’t see that changing anytime soon.

This is a market that is sitting in an area that should launch the market in one direction or the other.

ZCash bounced ever so slightly on Friday as we are hanging around the 200-day EMA. At this point, the market looks as if it is attracting a lot of attention, and the 200-day EMA is quite often used as a trend indicator.

ZCash will follow the rest of the crypto markets, but right now it seems as if we are trying to figure out where to go for a bigger move. ZCash is most certainly out there on the risk spectrum, so you need to keep an eye on where risk appetite is in general. The more likely people are to take a risk, the more likely they are to put money into ZCash. The market is not only sitting above the 200-day EMA, but it is also sitting just below the 50-day EMA. That is an area that typically causes a bit of a squeeze, so I do anticipate that it is only a matter of time before we see inertia pick back up.

Looking at this chart, if we were to break down below the $145 level, we may have a little bit of acceleration to the downside afterward. At this point, the market would possibly even go looking to the $120 level, possibly even the $100 level. Keep in mind that ZCash needs a little bit of help from the rest of the crypto markets in order to rally, specifically the bigger coins such as Ethereum and Bitcoin. If they start to rise, then you have the ability for ZCash and other smaller markets like it to show signs of life. Right now, we do not necessarily have that external pressure.

When you look at the trading over the last couple of sessions, the most important candlestick would be the massive selloff that got the market down to the 200-day EMA. If we were to turn around and take that out to the upside, it is likely that the market would go looking toward the $200 level, perhaps even the $220 level. Breaking above that level would then open up the possibility of a move to the $300 level longer-term. That would be in a situation where crypto continues to take off in general. Ultimately, this is a market that is sitting in an area that should launch the market in one direction or the other.

I think you have plenty of time to build a position in Ethereum, and you will probably get an opportunity to buy it at lower levels.

Ethereum markets were very quiet on Friday, which is not a huge surprise considering that it was a holiday. With good Friday coming and going, a lot of traders would not have been that interested. The $3000 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that would attract a lot of attention, not to mention the fact that we have the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA just above.

If we were to break down below the $2900 level, then it is possible that we could break down rather significantly. After that, we could go looking towards the $2750 level, maybe even the $2500 level. The $2500 level is an area that has seen plenty of support previously, so I think it will be a place where we have a lot of buyers in that general vicinity. If we were to break down below the $2500 level, then it is possible that we could go to the $2000 level given enough time.

If for some reason we were to break down below the $2000 level, it would open up the possibility of a “crypto winter”, as it would be a major breach of support. Furthermore, you should keep in mind that it was just announced that the June merge seems to be pushed back indefinitely, as Ethereum continues to drag its feet moving forward. This is not a good look, and one has to wonder how long it will be before people start to lose faith? I do not necessarily think that will end up being the longer-term trajectory of Ethereum, because I do think that the Ethereum project is going to fail, just that it is taking longer than anticipated. I still have a lot of faith in Ethereum longer term, but right now it still looks as if the project is going to stall a bit, and that is certainly not a good look considering that Bitcoin is struggling to rally as well. With this, I think you have plenty of time to build a position in Ethereum, and you will probably get an opportunity to buy it at lower levels. Ultimately, if we were to turn around and break above the highs of the candlestick earlier this week, then we could open up a move to the $3500 level, possibly even the $4000 given enough time.

The reaction over the last couple of days has really put a dark cloud over this market, so we will have to wait and see how this plays out.

The Bitcoin market did very little on Tuesday after selling off quite drastically on Monday. By sitting still, we are trying to figure out whether or not the $40,000 level will be an area of importance going forward, perhaps extending all the way down to the $38,000 level. If we were to somehow break through all of that, it would be a very negative turn of events, and the fact that we have seen this market be so noisy means that it could very well happen.

Looking at the size of this candlestick is interesting to see that we have stopped dead in our tracks, so if we were to turn around and break above the top of the candlestick, the theory is that there would be buyers coming back into the market. However, the overall risk appetite out there is a bit dicey, to say the least, and that does no favors for Bitcoin. If we were to break down below the $35,000 level, I believe that the Bitcoin market will fall apart, and we could see a massive move much lower.

Alternately, if we can take out the 200-day EMA above, which would be near the $44,386 level, then the market is likely to go higher. At that point, we will probably threaten the $48,000 level, followed by the $50,000 level. That being said, this market looks like it is going to consolidate at best, so I think you have plenty of time to get involved with Bitcoin, because crypto in general looks soft, to say the least.

Ultimately, if you are a short-term trader, you may use the $40,000 level as an entry point or support point. At this juncture, I think the market is probably one you need to trade from a short-term standpoint, so I would be very cautious about trying to hang on to the move unless you are comfortable holding through “crypto winter”, which is a very real possibility at this point. The reaction over the last couple of days has really put a dark cloud over this market, so we will have to wait and see how this plays out but I do not necessarily see this chart as being as enthusiastic as it had been previously.

If your short-term range-bound trader, this could be a good market for you.

The British pound has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to test the support level underneath, in the form of the 1.30 handle. The market continues to be very noisy, but at this point, the question is whether or not we are trying to form some type of “double bottom”, or if we are ready to break down below the 1.30 handle.

On the downside, if we were to break down below the 1.30 handle, then we may grind towards the 1.28 level underneath there. There is a lot of noise in that 200 PIP range, so therefore it is likely to see a lot of downward pressure. Ultimately, this is a market that will have to make serious decisions rather soon, and as the Federal Reserve is very hawkish, that has been a bit of an anchor around the neck of the British pound itself. This is not necessarily an indictment on the pound, but more or less a sign of just how strong the US dollar is.

On the upside, the 1.32 handle is an area where we have seen a certain amount of resistance, and now that the 50 Day EMA is racing towards that level, it should offer a bit of a short-term ceiling.

All things being equal, we could just go sideways and try to carve out a 200 PIP trading range, and as we head into the weekend it is a bit difficult to think that somebody is going to jump out there and go “all in” for one currency or the other. The market is very noisy, but this is a major inflection point and therefore we need to see some type of impulsive candlestick in one direction or another to define a trend. The market has formed a couple of neutral candlesticks in a row, so that tells you just how confused we are, but it is also interesting to see the volatility has completely fallen off of a cliff. Now that is simply a matter of waiting to see when we get an explosive candlestick to follow. Between now and then, if your short-term range-bound trader, this could be a good market for you, but right now I am on the sidelines and waiting for clarity.

We still expect the index to rise again during its upcoming trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined during its recent trading at the intraday levels, recording losses for the second day in a row, by -0.42%. It lost by 144.67 points, to settle at the end of trading at the level of 34,496.52, after declining in Tuesday’s trading by -0.80%.

Half of the index’s 30 components fell, with 15 stocks ending trading in the red, led by Salesforce Inc. by -4.44% and Microsoft Corp. By -3.66%, while on the other hand, UnitedHealth Group Inc. was the top gainer in percentage terms by 2.70% and Johnson & Johnson shares by 2.60%.

The stock market fell even though it regained some early losses on Wednesday, after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed that a half-point rate increase is possible with a good chance of it reducing its balance sheet soon.

The March minutes showed that Fed members see a 0.5 percentage point short-term rate increase as a strong possibility soon. The central bank had reported the possibility a few weeks ago, and markets had been expecting the Fed to raise its benchmark lending rate to nearly 3% over the next two years.

The Fed also indicated that it is likely to reduce the size of its balance sheet by reducing its holdings of bonds in the near future. The bank said it could reduce its bond holdings by about $95 billion a month. Lower demand for bonds means lower bond prices and higher yields.

Technically, the index is trying to gain positive momentum that might help it recover and rise again, amid the influx of negative signals on the relative strength indicators, even if we notice that they reach very oversold areas, and exaggeratedly compared to the movement of the index.

The index reached its last decline to rely on the important support level 34,352.96, and this coincided with its support as well as its simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

In light of the dominance of the main bullish trend over the medium term, with it being affected by leaving the range of a bearish corrective price channel that was limiting its previous trading in the short term, as shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily).

That is why we still expect the index to rise again during its upcoming trading, especially in the event that support remains stable at 34,352.96, to target the first resistance levels of 35,631.

You cannot have Monero going higher for any sustained amount of time without the big coins doing the same thing.

Monero has rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday as we are dancing around the $190 level. The 50 Day EMA sits underneath and is offering a bit of dynamic support, but at the same time, we have the 200 Day EMA above at the $210 level offering resistance. In other words, we are currently being squeezed between these two major indicators.

If we do break down below the $170 level, then it is very likely that Monero goes looking towards the $150 level. That is an area that I believe has quite a bit of noise attached to it and support due to the fact that we had bounced from there a couple of times. The market breaking down below there could open up the “trapdoor” to much lower pricing. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, but I believe you need to pay close attention to Bitcoin as it leads the way for all other coins.

The market breaking above the 200 Day EMA opens up the possibility of the market going to the $250 level. That is an area where we have seen resistance previously, so it does make a nice target. That being said, it does not look like we are ready to do that, so it will be interesting to see whether or not that move could actually happen. Monero is struggling from a lack of use at this point because crypto seems as if it is going to continue to struggle overall due to tightening monetary policy and this of course puts a lot of stress on the smaller markets. You cannot have Monero going higher for any sustained amount of time without the big coins doing the same thing.

If we were to break down below the $150 support region, then I think you could be looking at a move all the way back down to the $125 level, followed by the $100 level. While this market does look like it is trying to form some type of basing pattern, if we are in fact getting ready to go into a “crypto winter”, as some people are suggesting, Monero is going to be a place that people start dumping and therefore you will see prices dropping quite drastically.