The outlook is still bullish.

Bullish View

• Buy the USD/INR and set a take-profit at 79.63.
• Add a stop-loss at 78.58.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Set the sell-stop at 78.74 and a take-profit at 78.0.
• Add a stop-loss at 79.50.

The USD/INR pulled back sharply on Thursday morning as the spectacular rally faded. The pair dropped to a low of 78.53, which was lower than this week’s high of 79.32. It is still remarkably higher than where it started the year at.

US Jobs Data Ahead

The Indian rupee has been in a strong sell-off against the US dollar as investors have embraced a more risk-off sentiment. They have favored moving to the relatively safer US dollar as risks of a recession rise amid the extremely hawkish Federal Reserve.

On Wednesday, minutes by the Federal Reserve showed that the bank was committed to continuing hiking interest rates in the coming months. Only one member of the committee – Esther George – opposed the giant 0.75% rate hike that happened in June.

The minutes also revealed that members were optimistic that they will implement another 0.75% or 0.50% rate hike in the coming meeting. All these actions, together with the performance of commodities, have increased the possibility of a recession. As a result, investors have moved to the safety of the US dollar.

The next key catalyst for the USD/INR price will be the upcoming US non-farm payroll (NFP) data that will come out on Friday. Analysts expect the data will show that the economy created more than 200k jobs in June while the unemployment rate remained at about 3.5%.

The pair will likely react mildly to estimates by ADP that will be published on Thursday. Historically, ADP numbers tend to have a significant divergence from the official ones. The US will also publish the latest export and trade numbers.

There is no scheduled economic data from India on Thursday and Friday and the next meeting by the RBI will be in August. Therefore, the USD/INR price will mostly be influenced by the US dollar.

USD/INR Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the USD/INR pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few months as the rupee crashes. The pair is trading at 79, which is slightly below this week’s high of 79.33. In most periods, financial assets tend to consolidate or have a pullback as they near a key resistance level.

The pair is still above the 50-period moving average while the MACD has moved made a bearish divergence pattern. Therefore, the outlook is still bullish, with the next key price target being the second resistance of the standard pivot point at 79.64.

A fall in value early this weekend to new long term depths did put AVAX/USD under 14.0000 briefly, a slight reversal higher has occurred but lows remain in sight.

As of this morning, AVAX/USD is trading near 15.6500, this after being able to reach a high of nearly 16.3400 late on Sunday. Avalanche has suffered a severe fall in value like its major counterparts, but its low water marks on Saturday which went below the 14.0000 still managed to float above prices seen in mid-August and late July of 2021. The broad cryptocurrency market remains extremely fragile, and technically while reversals higher have been achieved in the past half day, lows are clearly within sight and threatening.

AVAX/USD produces fast trading and price velocity has been dangerous the past few days. Speculators brave enough to participate in cryptocurrencies, should certainly use stop loss and take profit orders while engaging in trading. If current support levels of 15.2000 begin to see a flirtation and start to appear vulnerable, speculators may believe that further lows will rapidly be demonstrated. A fall below the 15.1000 mark could stir additional selling in AVAX/USD.

While broad market conditions remain extremely nervous and Avalanche is in sight of long term lows, technical traders may be intrigued that AVAX/USD still has lower depths to explore.  If the bearish trend stays intact and the slight bounce higher produced yesterday and early today fade, AVAX/USD could begin to test lower depths below the 15.0000 which may attract the attention of more bearish speculators.

Yes, AVAX/USD could certainly move higher and reversals upwards should always be expected, because no asset moves in one direction when trading. However, the long term downward trajectory within the cryptocurrency market and Avalanche are self-evident, and betting against this trend should be done only with extreme caution and great risk taking tactics. Being a contrarian under the current market conditions may prove to be extremely dangerous, thus maintaining a selling stance appears to be the logical choice for most traders.

If AVAX/USD does traverse slightly higher and challenges resistance near the 15.7000 to 15.8500 ratios, speculators may want to consider short positions.  If Avalanche cannot maintain a price above the 16.0000 juncture and continues to keep its lower depths within sight, traders may want to prepare for the potential of the lower trajectory to stay in effect. Selling AVAX/USD remains the seemingly worthwhile wager for speculators in the near term.

Avalanche Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 16.09000000

Current Support: 15.18000000

High Target: 17.12000000

Low Target: 13.98000000

Bearish View

• Sell EUR/USD and set a take-profit at 1.0353.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.04600.
• Timeline: 1 day.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.0446 and a take-profit at 1.0500.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0380.

The EUR/USD price is hovering near its lowest level since May 16th as investors focused on the upcoming Fed decision and the hawkish ECB. It is trading at 1.0423, which is slightly above this month’s low of 1.040.

FOMC Decision Ahead

The EUR/USD pair maintained its bearish momentum as the US bond sell-off continued. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 3.45% while the 2-year rose to 3.41%. This is a sign that investors are now pricing in a more aggressive Federal Reserve.

The bond sell-off coincided with another decline in American equities. The Dow Jones erased another 150 points on Tuesday, a day after it dropped by over 800 points. The S&P 500 index remains in a deep bear territory, meaning that it has fallen by 20% from its YTD high.

Based on the Fed’s estimates, most analysts now believe that the bank will hike rates by 0.50% and commit to its quantitative tightening policy. But economists at companies like Barclays and Goldman Sachs now believe that a 0.75% hike is possible.

Before the FOMC, the EUR/USD will react mildly to the upcoming US retail sales data. Analysts believe that sales remained under pressure as inflation remained at elevated levels. This is an important figure since consumer spending is the biggest part of the American economy.

The EUR/USD is also under pressure after the relatively strong European inflation data. On Tuesday, data from Sweden and Germany showed that inflation remained at elevated levels in May. Later today, France is also expected to publish high inflation data.

These numbers reinforce the case that the ECB will also start hiking rates in its July meeting. Some analysts even expect it to move before the official meeting.

EUR/USD Forecast

The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few weeks. The sell-off continued even after the hawkish interest rate decision by the ECB. It also accelerated after the pair dropped below the important support at 1.0630, which was the lowest level since June 1.

The pair has also dropped below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the RSI has continued falling. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as bears target the key support at 1.0353, which is the lower side of the inverted cup and handle pattern.

BNB/USD stumbled to long term lows a handful of hours ago as the broad cryptocurrency markets remain in a downward spin.

BNB/USD briefly touched the 203.0000 price level a handful of hours ago. The lower mark this morning penetrated last month’s low seen on the 12^th of May when BNB/USD momentarily hit the 205.0000 mark before reversing higher. However this morning’s lowest depth did not produce the same violent reversal higher as it did on the 12^th of May and this could prove significant.

The move higher produced in the second week of May when long term lows were seen, saw a rise in price to nearly 280.0000 within the same day. A reproduction of that upwards reversal today likely has little faith to build on. Meaning speculators remain extremely wary and are likely braced for more negative price movement, after yesterday’s crash within the broad cryptocurrency marketplace.

As of this writing BNB/USD is traversing near the 228.0000 level and the recent lowest depths of Binance Coin are still within sight.  Intriguingly while many of the major cryptocurrencies are now testing values not seen since 2020, BNB/USD still has not fallen below values seen in early March of 2021. Optimists may stand up and cheer and claim this means a reversal higher can be produced near term. However, skeptics of which there are likely many may look at technical charts, and believe if the 200.0000 level is broken lower in BNB/USD another steep fall may occur in Binance Coin value.

Binance Coin is used to facilitate trading on the Binance exchange and is speculated on too by traders. It should be noted the Binance exchange had to stop transacting trades in Bitcoin yesterday momentarily when transaction levels became extreme. While this may not have a direct correlation on the price of BNB/USD, the fact that Binance had to halt trading should serve as a cautionary reminder regarding the volatility which clearly exists currently.

If the broad digital asset market remains nervous, and it likely will, BNB/USD may continue to see tests of recent lows again.  The near term promises to be volatile and traders who are contemplating selling positions cannot be blamed. Risk management needs to be practiced by all traders under the present trading conditions.

If BNB/USD fails to produce a significant rise above the 240.0000 level in the short term, this may be a sign that another move lower could be demonstrated sooner rather than later.  If support near the 212.0000 level starts to be flirted with this would be a negative sign. Speculators need to be ready for price velocity. If the 200.0000 mark level fails to hold back selling positions today, BNB/USD could see a test of February 2021 prices around the 185.0000 juncture.

Binance Coin Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 250.4000

Current Support: 212.0000

High Target: 279.9000

Low Target: 185.5000

ADA/USD has seen its value nosedive like other major cryptocurrencies in the past handful of days, and speculators who are wagering should remain cautious.

ADA/USD is trading slightly above 41 cents as of this writing.  The widespread carnage in the cryptocurrency markets has created a lack of confidence that is testing the willpower of almost all participants in the digital asset world. The price of Cardano was above 76 cents on the 8^th of May.

As ADA/USD moves lower and strong buyers remain in hiding, technical traders need to look at long term charts to consider potential problems (opportunities for those who want to remain thinking optimistically). One year charts will not do the trick for speculators at this point; five year charts should be gathered and considered.  ADA/USD is now challenging prices seen in early February of 2021, if Cardano’s price stumbles slightly more it will be within January 2021 value levels with the blink of an eye.

As a point of reference to illustrate the speed ADA/USD is moving (downward), I have had to revise the price Cardano is trading in the opening paragraph two times already. If a trader chooses to wager within the cryptocurrency market today they should use entry price orders to make sure their fills meet expectations. Without the use of entry orders a trader may find that they are correct about direction, but the price is far below the expected fill due to the speed of price velocity which exists in the current conditions, which may create the need for other value targets.

Fast conditions are not about to go away.  Yes, potentially there will be reversals upward in the broad cryptocurrency market which can be taken advantage of, but speculators betting on upside action should really consider that this may be described as spitting in the wind. The trend for the time being is not only bearish, but can be described as an avalanche. If ADA/USD breaks below the 40 cents level in the short term, values could potentially fall into the mid 30’s.

Risk taking tactics such as stop loss and take profits should certainly be used by speculators.  The use of leverage should be carefully considered in a conservative way because the price action in ADA/USD, like the broad cryptocurrency market remains dynamic and dangerous. Selling into this storm may be tempting and proven correct, but it will take courage and quick reactions. Good luck.

Cardano Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.43250000

Current Support: 0.40210000

High Target: 0.45850000

Low Target: 0.34960000

AVAX/USD has moved slightly higher in the last day of trading, but Avalanche remains near dangerous lows in a market that shows growing nervousness.

AVAX/USD is near the 60.25000000 ratio as of this writing having moved slightly higher in recent trading. However, the slight move upwards does not mask the slide downwards that AVAX/USD has produced the past month and its inability to establish a solid reversal higher. The lack of capability to sustain a move upwards mirrors the results from the broad cryptocurrency market and AVAX/USD is near important psychological support levels.

On the 2^nd of April AVAX/USD was trading slightly below the 103.00000000 mark, the loss of value the past month has been dramatic for Avalanche. The bearish trend has proven strong and traders who have been tempted to look for long lasting moves higher to develop have likely experienced rather costly results within their trading accounts. As Avalanche trades within the 60 to 61 USD price realms, traders need to consider long term technical charts to grasp the dangerous price vicinity AVAX/USD looms.

If the 60.00000000 mark is shown to be vulnerable, traders cannot be blamed for believing lows seen only a few days ago will be displayed again.  On the 30^th of April and 2^nd of May the 56 USD ratio was tested by AVAX/USD. The last time these current price realms of AVAX/USD were traded was in the last week of January.  This value vicinity was also seen in October of 2021.

Traders who believe AVAX/USD may move lower cannot be faulted. Certainly the price of Avalanche may feel as if it has been oversold. But lower depths have been seen before, and if current support levels fail to hold it is not outside the realm of possibility that the 55 to 54 USD mark for Avalanche could be experienced again. The broad cryptocurrency market is exhibiting widespread nervousness and many of the major digital assets are testing important lows.

The bearish trend in AVAX/USD has failed to produce a significant reversal higher which could change the sentiment of most day traders. While looking for upside may be a wager some speculators want to make, these bets may prove to be best served by quick hitting trades that use take profit orders to cash out lightning quick results, otherwise they could prove to be expensive losing bets.

Traders on the other hand who remain skeptical of a sudden turnaround in AVAX/USD developing near term, may want to continue pursuing downside momentum which has been rather strong. Selling AVAX/USD and looking for support levels to be tested and used as take profit junctures may be worthwhile wagers short term.

Avalanche Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 61.10000000

Current Support: 59.42000000

High Target: 63.46000000

Low Target: 54.24000000