A little bit more of an upward influence probably still remains, but it is nothing to get overly excited about.

Ethereum went back and forth on Wednesday as we continue to hang around the $2800 level. At this point, it looks as if we are going to try to make a move back to the $3000 level, where we will then face a significant amount of “market memory” due to the fact that it has been both support and resistance multiple times in the past.

Just above the $3000 level is the fact that we have the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA hanging about and going sideways. This suggests that the market is trying to go flat, and we may be trying to set up to form some type of longer-term consolidation. That would make a certain amount of sense because there is not a lot of interest in the crypto markets at the moment.

If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Wednesday, then Ethereum more likely than not will end up reaching the $2500 level underneath. We had recently formed a bit of a double bottom in that area, so it does make sense that it would continue to see a certain amount of support attached to it. Keep in mind that Ethereum is also struggling due to the fact that a lot of the improvements have struggled to be implemented, and as long as the market has to wait for the new and improved Ethereum, a lot of the narrative crumbles.

This does it necessarily mean that the market is going to fall apart, just that there is no real catalyst to get it moving to the upside. The other side of the currency pair is the USD, so you do need to understand that the US dollar has been like a wrecking ball against almost everything. If the US dollar continues to strengthen, then it makes sense that Ethereum could struggle a bit, due to the fact that you are comparing Ethereum to that very same US dollar.

All of this being said, it is probably worth noting that each low gets a little bit higher, but it has been more of a grind than anything else. A little bit more of an upward influence probably still remains, but it is nothing to get overly excited about.

It is not until we break above the 1.12 level that I would consider buying this market.

The Euro initially rallied during the trading session on Wednesday, but then pulled back a bit from the highs. We had a Federal Reserve meeting and announcement during the day, so it is not a huge surprise to see that things were a bit volatile. Ultimately, this is a market that still sees a lot of resistance above, so I think is probably only a matter of time before we start selling again.

The 1.11 level above is the beginning of significant resistance to the 1.12 level, and then of course we have the 50 Day EMA drifting down below it. Because of this, I think it is only a matter of time before we see the sellers come back into the picture. Any signs of exhaustion will more than likely be jumped upon, and I do believe we have further to go to the downside. After all, the German ZEW shows just how dire the attitude is in the European Union, as it came out at -39 instead of the expected +5. Business confidence falling like that is not a good sign.

There are concerns about inflation and of course the war in Ukraine, so it will continue to be a bit of a drag on the Euro in general. The market falling from here could open up the possibility of a move down to the 1.09 level, and then the 1.08 level. If we break down below the 1.08 level, the market could then go looking towards the 1.05 level. Regardless, we are most certainly in a downtrend and there is no reason to try to fight it.

I believe that simply being patient enough to find “cheap dollars” will be the way going forward, as there are a lot of concerns when it comes to the EU, and of course, there is a lot of space between the interest rates of the two currencies. The interest rate differential has a lot to do with how currency pairs move, and that of course is going to continue to be one of the biggest influences in this pair. Furthermore, we have a situation where the overall momentum of the market continues to see downward pressure anyway. In fact, it is not until we break above the 1.12 level that I would consider buying this market.