Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

Yesterday’s sell trade was activated, and the exit was made after making a profit with closing half of the contracts and moving the stop-loss point as the price progressed towards the target.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from levels of 17.85
• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.54.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

Analysis of the Turkish lira

The price of the Turkish lira stabilized against the US dollar during the early trading of today, Wednesday. The interventions of the Turkish Central Bank clearly appear in the price movements of the lira strongly against the dollar during a specific time within today’s trading before the pair returns to the normal course of trading. The Turkish Central Bank pumped dollars in liquidity into the markets to preserve the value of the lira, especially after the increase in the volume of foreign reserves in the country thanks to Russian transfers that took place in order to start implementing a nuclear plant in Turkey. The lira, which has halved against the dollar over 12 months, is suffering. This was reflected in inflation in the country, which recorded its highest level in 24 years at 79.6 percent during the month of July. The price of the lira is not expected to improve in light of the continuation of the current monetary policy without changes.

On the technical front, the USD/TRY currency pair settled near its highest levels this year. With the exception of a strong movement that appeared quickly during yesterday’s trading, the lira strongly pushed against the dollar before the pair returned to where the narrow trading range is, with the same trading image that the pair has been following since the beginning of this month, which is shown in the chart. The pair is trading above the 50 and 100 moving averages and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the bullish trend over the long term. At the same time, the pair is trading the highest levels of support, which are concentrated at 17.90 and 17.85 levels, respectively. While the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 18.00 and 18.07, respectively. We expect to re-record new highs, especially with every dip in the pair, which represents a buying opportunity. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

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We expect the lira’s decline to continue.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

None of the buying or selling transactions of yesterday were activated.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a sell position with a pending order from 17.41 levels
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels 17.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.40.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from 17.00 levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.88.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 17.40

The lira continued to stabilize against the dollar, as weak and mixed movements showed the central Turkish control over the lira’s movements through direct or indirect interventions. The lira stabilized throughout last week’s trading, despite the US interest rate hike, which raised the price of the US dollar against the major currencies and the currencies of emerging economies. This comes at a time when Turkey is experiencing its worst economic crisis in twenty years. The inflation rate continues to rise strongly, reaching 73.5%. The Central Bank also maintained the stability of raising interest rates, despite raising interest rates around the world. The lira lost about 20% of its value after losing 40% over the past year. Meanwhile, the Turkish Finance Minister said that Turkey will give up 241 billion lira in tax revenues in an attempt to control inflation.

On the technical front, the Turkish currency has traded unchanged, to continue the divergence since last week. The pair traded within a narrow range, which is shown on the chart. The pair maintained its trading in a general bullish trend above the level of 17 pounds, with the pair trading the highest levels of support, which are concentrated at levels of 17.00 and 16.80, respectively. The pair also continued trading above the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame, while the price traded between the same averages on the 60-minute time frame. At the same time, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 17.40 and 17.80, respectively. The level of 17.41 represents a strong resistance level. We expect the lira’s decline to continue, as every decline on the pair represents an opportunity to repurchase, especially if it crosses the mentioned resistance levels. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

Ultimately, any bounce at this time is an invitation to take advantage of a collapsing market.

The NASDAQ 100 went back and forth on Tuesday as we are trying to stabilize. That being said, the market has fallen quite significantly, so that might be a good time for a little bit of a relief rally. That being said, a relief rally is going to get sold into unless the Federal Reserve suddenly changes its attitude. I would not hold my breath for that, as there are far too many reasons to think that we will continue to see destruction.

Looking at this chart, I believe that if we do rally, the 12,000 level will be difficult to overcome, especially if the Federal Reserve looks as hawkish as it has in the past. Granted, there will be people on Wall Street trying to pump the narrative that perhaps we have an opportunity to see the Federal Reserve slowing down. That seems to be a pipe dream, but you must keep in mind that the majority of traders on Wall Street have never had to deal with an inflationary environment. Most of them have no idea what to do and assume the Federal Reserve will come to save them. The Federal Reserve has a much bigger problem, and that’s inflation. Inflation in the United States is essentially out of control at this point.

Looking at this chart, it’s very likely based on the long-term charts of the NASDAQ 100 that it could go down to the 11,000 level, perhaps even the 10,000 level. Ultimately, I think that’s where we will go, and I think there are a lot of people looking to get involved in that area. Regardless, risk appetite is something that I would not be involved in right now, as we have seen not only in stock markets, but crypto markets, currency markets, and just about anything else. Ultimately, any bounce at this time is an invitation to take advantage of a collapsing market. If we can somehow break above the 50-day EMA, then it might be possible that we could go higher, but I don’t think that the momentum is there, and unless something changes from a longer-term fundamental standpoint, I just don’t know how this gets better. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the market is one you can jump into and start shorting at any moment, so make sure you pick your spots.

I do think that Cardano may have a future, but a lot of other smaller coins don’t.

Cardano rallied a bit on Monday, stabilizing right around the $0.50 level. That being said, crypto itself is in a lot of trouble and Cardano is not going to avoid that. We are in a strong downtrend and is difficult to imagine a scenario where things change rapidly. We are in fact in “crypto winter” when it comes to these altcoins. As long as that’s the case, unless something changes in the Cardano ecosystem that makes it head and shoulders above the rest, you can probably count on lower pricing.

Keep in mind that the rest of the crypto market pays close attention to Bitcoin and Ethereum. If both of those are struggling, these coins will not do very well unless it’s a specific case basis. At this point, it looks like both of those markets are trying to build a bit of a base, but the last time they attempted this, they shed 25% on the breakdown. If that happens, there’s absolutely no way that Cardano or other small markets are going to do well.

The $0.60 level above looks to be resistance, and it is probably worth noting that the 50-day EMA is racing toward that area as well. If you look at the action for the last couple of months, Cardano has paid close attention to the 50-day EMA, so I would venture to say there will probably be sellers in that general vicinity as well. Cardano seems to be finding a bit of support underneath at the $0.40 level, but there’s nothing particularly special about the $0.40 level that leads me to believe it will be better than any other level.

As far as buying is concerned, if you are a longer-term believer in the Cardano ecosystem, you should have plenty of opportunities to buy at lower prices. Perhaps “scaling in” might be the best strategy in that scenario, but you also have to be aware of the fact it could be a couple of years before crypto takes off again. You would need to see Bitcoin start to rally on a sustainable trajectory before others like Cardano follow along. Remember that this is a highly speculative investment, but it does have a lot of promise as far as its use-case scenario. Because of this, I do think that Cardano may have a future, but a lot of other smaller coins don’t.

The Canadian dollar is softening against a lot of currencies, so this is a huge surprise.

The US dollar initially pulled back a bit on Friday but then turned around to show signs of life again near the 1.28 level. This is an area that has been supported multiple times, and it is likely that we will continue to see buyers trying to take advantage of “cheap dollars.” Keep in mind that the US dollar continues to see a lot of inflows, and I think we will continue to see that being the case. After all, interest rates in America continue to climb and the Canadian economy is starting to suffer.

The oil market has been rather strong, but quite frankly the US dollar and crude oil can rise at the same time. After all, the US dollar has a lot of pressure on it due to the demand for yield, but at the same time there is a lot of inflationary pressure out there, thereby driving crude oil higher. Furthermore, I think it is only a matter of time before we start to price in even further supply disruption because even though demand might be dropping a bit, the reality is that we are at historic lows for supply in certain grades.

The 50-day EMA is currently at the 1.2754 level, as it is starting to rally and offering a certain amount of dynamic support. Ultimately, I think that every time we pull back we will find buyers, and it looks like we are going to make another attempt at the 1.30 handle. The Canadian dollar is softening against a lot of currencies, so this is a huge surprise. Money continues to flow into the United States, and I think that will be the theme for the next several weeks at the very least.

As the Federal Reserve continues to tighten and sound hawkish, a lot of money is going to be running to the safety of US bonds. Canadian bonds are not necessarily Third World, but they do not hold the same type of “same as cash” appeal that US Treasuries do. If we can break above the 1.29 handle, then it is likely that we will go looking to the 1.30 level. If we break above the 1.30 handle, then it is likely that we will go much higher, perhaps breaking to a fresh, new high.

The markets will not change their attitude until the central banks step in and try to save everyone.

The FTSE 100 was all over the place Tuesday as we have broken below the 200-day EMA and the previous 24 hours. At this point, the market is trying to determine whether or not the 7200 level will offer enough support going forward, or if we are going to continue to drop from here.

Looking around the world, it is likely that we will have more selling than buying. This is not to say that we cannot have some type of relief rally, but this type of brutality typically has further to go as the market dropped 300 points a couple of days prior. If we do break above the highs for the session on Tuesday, then you can make an argument for an attempt to reach the 7380 level, which is the top of the gap in the futures market. After that, you then have the 7400 level, followed very quickly by the 50-day EMA which is roughly 30 points above there.

On the downside, if we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Tuesday, it is likely that we will threaten the 7100 level, perhaps even the 7000 level given enough time. This is a market that is going to continue to be negative overall, especially as we are expecting the United Kingdom to go into recession given enough time. That is probably the same for most economies around the world, and we are starting to see the stock markets reflect that. Because of this, it is more likely than not going to be a “sell on the rallies” type of situation, which is going to be the case not only for the FTSE 100, but everything else. Furthermore, the 200-day EMA is going to be a bit of a barrier in and of itself.

As far as buying is concerned, I do not have any real interest in doing that, as I think the overall bearishness will continue, as the dearth of the world’s problems is going nowhere. The markets will not change their attitude until the central banks step in and try to save everyone. We are not anywhere near seeing that quite yet and at this point supply chain disruptions are just too much for equity traders to look past.

I do not have any interest in trying to get too cute with this market though, so I am more than willing to wait for the bigger markets to push things higher.

ZCash had a very quiet session on Tuesday, but that might be exactly what was needed as we had formed a hammer on Monday, and now it looks like we are hanging about the $122 level. This is obviously a market that will continue to be very noisy, right along with the rest of the crypto world. The markets have been beaten up rather hard, and ZCash would not be any different.

Keep in mind that risk appetite is a major driver of where crypto goes, and right now there is a severe lack of risk appetite. I believe at this point we will more likely than not continue to see risk appetite assets such as crypto suffering, and even if we do get a rally, it will probably be short-lived at best. The 200-day EMA above $144 will more than likely be a massive ceiling in this market. In other words, that is probably about as high as I think the market will go in the short term.

On the other hand, if we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then we could see ZCash drop down to the $100 level, maybe even down to the $85 level after that. The $85 level has been a huge support level multiple times, and we had even formed a bit of a double bottom at that area previously that ended up sending this market much higher. If we were to break down below the $85 level, it would almost certainly send this market much lower.

As far as buying for a longer-term move is concerned, I would need to see larger coins such as Bitcoin and Ethereum take off to the upside first, and then follow with some of the smaller markets. Because of this, you are probably more or less in a bit of a “wait-and-see” type of situation, but if you are a short-term trader, you may be able to play a potential pop higher. I do not have any interest in trying to get too cute with this market though, so I am more than willing to wait for the bigger markets to push things higher. If we do somehow manage to break above the $160 level, then we will challenge the $180 level. After that, the $200 level then gets targeted.

Demand is going to be a big deal, as we are starting to slow down globally, meaning that we might have a lot of demand destruction.

The US dollar went back and forth against the Brazilian real during the Wednesday session. By doing so, it looks like we are going to continue trying to stabilize the overall market. After all, we had formed a hammer during the Tuesday session as well, so this is the beginning of that attempt. The market had been falling for quite some time, so it certainly makes a significant amount of sense that we would see a lot of noise in this area.

If we do continue to fall, the 4.58 level has been significant support previously, so I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before we see that area offer enough interest for buyers to get involved. If we break it down below there, then we will almost certainly see this market dump rather quickly to the 4.50 level. That has a lot of psychology attached to it, so people will be paying close attention to it, and I think it would be difficult to break through. Having said that, we are clearly in a downtrend, so it does make sense that we could reach there.

As you can see on the chart, I have a box at the 4.80 level, and I think that is a significant amount of resistance, and a break above there would be a very good sign. At that point, I think we would challenge the 50-day EMA, and perhaps even try to bounce to the 5.00 level. It would obviously be a “risk-off” type of move, or perhaps everybody is running to the US dollar. Having said that, the US dollar has been strengthening for quite some time, even as it has been falling against the real. This is because Brazil has been benefiting from the commodities boom, as it is a major exporter of a lot of soft commodities. If the commodity markets start to unravel, that could put pressure on the Brazilian real, turning this market around.

Demand is going to be a big deal, as we are starting to slow down globally, meaning that we might have a lot of demand destruction. If that is the case, we may be getting close to the end of the Brazilian real rally.

If we can recapture the recent swing high, we will more than likely go to the all-time highs.

The S&P 500 has fallen a bit during the trading session on Friday to test the 4500 level in the futures market. We have bounced from there, so that of course is a good sign in a market that has been sold off over the last couple of days.

At this point, we need to figure out whether or not we are going to hang on to this area and bounce or are we going to break down below there to reach the 50 Day EMA. The 50 Day EMA is currently at the 4448 level and rising. The 50 Day EMA is an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to, so it will be worth paying attention to in that general vicinity. The 200 Day EMA sits at the 4400 level and is rising as well. The 4400 level is a massive “floor of the market”, so if we were to break down below there it would be a very negative turn of events.

Keep in mind that the S&P 500 has nothing to do with economics, so I would not worry too much about economic numbers. It is going to be about what the Federal Reserve does as far as tightening is concerned. That is the only thing Wall Street cares about at the end of the day because most big firms borrow money from the Fed to gamble in the markets. Pay attention to the Fed futures market, because it will give you an idea as to whether or not this market is going to become bullish or bearish.

If we do break down below the 4500 level, then I might be a buyer of puts options, but I would not be short this market. Remember, it is not designed to fall. It is designed to go higher based upon a handful of stocks, as it is a market cap weighted index. In other words, it is not a true measure of the underlying 500 stocks, rather it is just a handful of stocks.

If we can recapture the recent swing high, we will more than likely go to the all-time highs. Given enough time, that might be what happens, especially if the Federal Reserve blanks and suggests that it cannot hike interest rates as many times as people thought.