I believe that the market will continue to respect the 200 Day EMA, currently sitting at the 4200 level and going sideways. 

• The S&P 500 has done very little during the training session on Monday after initially gapping lower.
• The fact that we have bounced is a bit surprising, but it’s also indicative of just how many traders out there don’t believe the Federal Reserve.
• The market seems to be respecting the 4000 level in the E-mini contract right now, and the fact that we sold off so viciously on Friday seems to be something that people are willing to look past, at least in the short term.

Massive selloffs like we had on Friday very rarely happen in a vacuum, so I think it is more likely than not that any rally that we see gets sold into. I believe that the market will continue to respect the 200 Day EMA, currently sitting at the 4200 level and going sideways. That also happens to be at the top of the candlestick from the Friday session, so it all ties in together quite nicely. A short-term rally opens the possibility of shorting at a better price, but I also need to see signs of exhaustion to get short again. After all, I don’t want to sell the market just for the sake of selling it.

Monetary Tightening Likely to Put Pressure on Markets

The alternate scenario would be that we break down below the lows of the candlestick on Monday, which should open and move down to the 3900 level. The 3900 level being broken to the downside opens the possibility of a move down to the 3700 level, which is roughly where we bottomed it previously. Furthermore, you need to be cautious about the fact that even though Wall Street is willing to ignore the Federal Reserve, quantitative tightening has just started, and there are a lot of signs of stress in other markets. Of note would be the credit markets, which are starting to show signs of an issue.

It’s not until we break above the 200 Day EMA that I look at this as a market that’s willing to take on the 4300 level again. If we were to break above there then you can make an argument for a bit of an inverted head and shoulders, which would obviously be a very bullish sign. I’m not holding my breath for that, just am keeping that in the back of my mind.

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 The chance of the lira rising against the dollar is still weak as the pair is moving in a generally upward direction. 

Today’s recommendation on the USD/TRY

• Risk 0.50%.
• None of yesterday’s buy or sell deals were activated

The best selling entry points

• Entering a sell deal with a pending order from the 18.33 levels
• Place the stop loss point and close the lowest support levels 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit with the price moving by 50 points.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best buy entry points

• Entering a buy deal with a pending order from the 17.98 levels
• The best points for placing a stop loss close at 17.74 levels.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit with the price moving by 50 points.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

Analysis of the Turkish Lira

The price of the Turkish lira stabilized against the US dollar during early trading this morning, as the lira continues to trade within a narrow trading range amidst interventions by the Turkish Central Bank to control its price.

This is clearly seen during last weekend’s trading, where the lira was barely affected by the rise of the dollar against most of the major and emerging currencies, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s statements about sticking to the policy of monetary tightening until reaching the FED’s inflation target.

On the other hand, the Turkish Central Bank has stuck to a stimulus policy after lowering the interest rate by 100 basis points during the current month. In the meantime, reports revealed a government crackdown on independent institutions that aim to track the real inflation rate in the country, which reflects the decline in transparency in government economic data, as many analysts believe that it is unreal figures and manipulated. It is mentioned that the inflation rate in the country is at its highest level in 25 years.

On the technical level, the USD/TRY settled at its highest levels during 2022, after the pair broke through the 18.10 levels, where the pair traded at the top of the narrow trading range, which is illustrated by the chart. The pair is also trading above the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages respectively on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating a long-term upward trend. The pair also traded above the support levels which are concentrated at the levels of 18.08 and 17.98 respectively. While the pair is trading below the resistance levels at 18.20 and 18.33, which are above the pair’s levels recorded at the end of last year respectively.

 The chance of the lira rising against the dollar is still weak as the pair is moving in a generally upward direction. Since every decline for the pair represents a good opportunity to buy please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.

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Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

None of yesterday’s buy or sell transactions were activated

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from levels of 17.85
• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.54.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

The price of the Turkish lira stabilized against the US dollar during the early trading today, Tuesday, as the Turkish lira completed its trading in the narrow range in which it has been trading since the beginning of this month, near its lowest levels during 2022. The lira is not expected to witness any improvement, especially in light of unstable global economic conditions. As the US jobs data contributed to raising expectations of monetary tightening in the United States, which means the strength of the dollar, while on the other hand, the Treasury and the Central Bank of Turkey are trying to take advantage of all available solutions to maintain the stability of the lira, which suffers from a monetary policy A stimulus that the Turkish Central Bank maintains in light of inflation figures that the country has not witnessed for a quarter of a century.

Technical Analysis

On the technical front, the US dollar pair settled against the Turkish lira near its highest levels this year. As the pair’s movement continued in a narrow trading range with the same trading picture that the USD/TRY currency pair has been following since the beginning of this month, as shown through the graph.. The pair is trading above the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. On the upside in the long term. At the same time, the pair is trading the highest levels of support, which are concentrated at 17.90 and 17.85 levels, respectively. While the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 18.00 and 18.07, respectively. We expect to re-record new highs, especially with every dip in the pair, which represents a buying opportunity. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

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In the short term, expect a lot of choppy behavior in more of a sideways type of market.

• Ethereum markets rallied ever so slightly during the day, gaining 2%.
• The market has recently seen a lot of choppy noise in this area, and I think that will probably continue to be the case as we are trying to break out, but do not have a catalyst at this point.
• The $1800 level above is significant resistance that extends to the $2000 level, so breaking through all that is the goal by the bullish traders out there, but I don’t necessarily think that they have the momentum, at least not at the moment.

It’s All About Risk Appetite

Pay attention to risk appetite overall, because obviously crypto is pretty far out on that spectrum. As long as risk appetite is strong, that does help crypto, and then by extension Ethereum. Ethereum is also going through a Renaissance in the sense that the upgrade is coming. This is part of what has been driving Ethereum higher, but now we have to ask serious questions, not the least of which would be whether or not it actually happens on time.

A pullback at this time would make a certain amount of sense, with the 50-day EMA underneath offering support, just above the $1200 level. That would be an ideal area for support to come back in and lift the market, assuming that the buyers are willing to make it stand. That being said, if the market were to break down below the $1200 level, then it’s likely that will we go back down to the $900 level. Anything below there could open up the floodgates the much lower pricing. I don’t necessarily think that will happen either, at least not in the short term.

Pay attention to the central bank situation, because if the Federal Reserve continues to flex its muscles and tighten monetary policy, that does tend to work against risk assets like Ethereum. Granted, Ethereum is in its own world at the moment due to “The Merge”, but that doesn’t mean that it cannot start selling off with everything else. If we were to break above the $2000 level, it would almost certainly kick off the next major bull run, but I don’t think that happens without some type of outside catalyst. In the short term, expect a lot of choppy behavior in more of a sideways type of market.

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Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

Yesterday’s buy trade was activated, and half of the contracts were closed with the price rising towards the target and providing a stop loss point.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from levels of 17.85
• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.54.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

Turkish Lira Economic Outlook

The lira did not benefit from the dollar’s weakness after the Federal Reserve’s decision yesterday to raise interest rates by 75 points as expected, which the markets have already priced in. Jerome Powell’s comments also increased pressure on the dollar’s price, which fell against most of the major currencies since yesterday. The Federal Reserve Chairman said that the bank will slow down the pace of raising the interest rate in the United States, which benefited all financial assets such as stock markets, gold and cryptocurrencies as well as currencies that jumped against the US dollar. However, the economic conditions experienced by the economy in Turkey, especially the high inflation, which exceeded its highest levels in about 25 years. This was especially with the rise in the bill for energy imports and the depletion of the cash reserves with the Turkish Central Bank and the adoption of a special stimulus policy with the fixing of the interest rate about 10 months ago. This may make the Turkish lira price improvement unattainable.

Technical Outlook USD/TRY

The Turkish lira fell against the US dollar, as the pair returned to its attempt to reach the top recorded during the current year, after a temporary decline during yesterday’s trading. The pair failed to break the ascending trend line on the four-hour time frame shown on the chart, at the same time the pair is trading the highest support levels that are concentrated at 17.80 and 17.70 levels, respectively. Meanwhile, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 18.00 and 18.32, respectively. The pair is also trading above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200 on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the bullish trend on the medium term. We expect to re-record new highs, especially with every dip in the pair, which represents a buying opportunity. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

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We are oversold at this point, so I think the reality is that the market is one that you have to look at as an opportunity to short every time we get a bit of a rally.

The S&P 500 went back and forth on Friday as we continue to see a lot of volatility in this market. It’s worth noting that it was the largest options expiration in history, so it’s quite impressive that we have seen very little in the way of gain. Because of this, it’s likely that we will see this market try to balance, but there’s so much selling pressure above that I just don’t see how it has traction.

If we were to break down below the 3600 level, that would open up fresh selling, perhaps a move down to the 3500 level. Ultimately, that is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people could pay close attention to, and it could cause a little bit of a bounce. However, the market will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, and I think you need to be very cautious with the position size more than anything else. Yes, we are a little overextended at this point, but I think it’s likely to continue the overall downtrend as there’s no reason to think that the Federal Reserve is going to change its tune. It is going to raise interest rates by 50-basis points over the next two meetings and has already promised to do so.

The S&P 500 has to deal with earnings being written back down, as the overall attitude of the market remains dour and is still expecting earnings to be far too strong. That being said, it’s going to pay close attention to the Federal Reserve, because as soon as they show signs of cracks in the ice when it comes to raising rates, that could be the bottom. Until then, it’s likely to see a lot of noisy behavior but not necessarily anything other than a little bit of a short-term bounce or drop. We are oversold at this point, so I think the reality is that the market is one that you have to look at as an opportunity to short every time we get a bit of a rally. The US dollar continues to be the only asset anybody truly wants to hold, and as long as that’s going to be the case it will work again stocks in general.

We expect the lira’s decline to continue.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

None of the buying or selling transactions of yesterday were activated.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a sell position with a pending order from 17.41 levels
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels 17.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.40.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from 17.00 levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.88.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 17.40

The Turkish lira stabilized without changes against the dollar during today’s trading. The lira did not retreat after the US Federal Reserve’s decision yesterday, which raised the lending rate by 75 basis points, amid expectations of a similar hike during next month’s meeting. The declines of most currencies against the US dollar, especially the currencies of emerging economies. This suggests an indirect intervention by the Turkish Central Bank, which succeeded in fixing the lira’s loss. Turkey is facing a crisis in the size of strong inflation, which reached its highest level in 24 years, led by jumps in the prices of energy imports, in light of the state’s adherence to not raising the interest rate to keep pace with the movements of the US Federal Reserve. In the meantime, investors are awaiting decisions from the Treasury Department regarding bonds aimed at pushing the lira to consolidate against the dollar.

On the technical level, the Turkish currency was stable for the fourth consecutive day. The pair maintained its trading in a general bullish trend above the level of 17 pounds, with the pair trading the highest levels of support, which are concentrated at levels of 17.00 and 16.80, respectively. The pair also continued trading above the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame, while the price traded between the same averages on the 60-minute time frame. At the same time, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 17.40 and 17.80, respectively. The level of 17.41 represents a strong resistance level. We expect the lira’s decline to continue, as every decline on the pair represents an opportunity to repurchase, especially if it crosses the mentioned resistance levels. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

The only thing you can do with crypto right now is short the market, because it’s going nowhere anytime soon.

Ethereum went back and forth on Tuesday as we are trying to catch a breath after a major selloff. Crypto continues to plunge, but this candlestick does suggest we could get a short-term bounce. The short-term bounce could be an opportunity for people who are trapped at the moment to get out of the market. I would not be a buyer of this bounce, because crypto has much further to go to the downside.

If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then we just simply fall through the $1000 level. I do think that Ethereum will break down below there and go looking to an even lower level. At this point, I would not be surprised at all to see Ethereum drop to the $400 level again. The Ethereum market is especially vulnerable to all of the fraud that’s been going on because a lot of it is built on top of the Ethereum market. It’s not necessarily the fault of Ethereum, but it is most certainly the problem of Ethereum.

Monetary tightening continues to be a major issue, and central banks around the world doing that will continue to put a lot of pressure on crypto in general. Ethereum will probably do better than many other coins, but it still plays second fiddle to Bitcoin, which happens to look very negative as well. At this point, any rally will probably run into a lot of resistance near the $1750 level, which extends to the $2000 level, as well as the 50-day EMA. There’s nothing on this chart that suggests that you should be a buyer anytime soon, and crypto is about to enter a period of long-term malaise, so if you are a longer-term believer in crypto, you will get an opportunity to build up huge positions here relatively soon, but there’s no need to be in a rush.

As for trading crypto, the only thing you can do with crypto right now is short the market, because it’s going nowhere anytime soon. It will take the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world to change in their monetary policy before crypto even stands a chance. Beyond that, people will have to forget about the losses and the fraud that have all occurred recently.

I would not get too excited about any rally at this point though, because the trend is most decidedly against crypto in general.

The Bitcoin market fell significantly on Tuesday but found enough psychological and structural support near the $30,000 level to bounce a bit. The resulting candlestick was somewhat neutral, and I would also point out that the volume was rather strong. This could be a short-term bottom, but at this point, it is premature to think that the trend is suddenly going to change.

Looking at this chart, if we were to break down below the $30,000 level, I think at that point you would start to have serious thoughts about a “crypto winter”, as it would more than likely have people running away from the entire crypto space in general. You would see smaller coins get eviscerated, while Bitcoin would probably do almost nothing at lower levels.

While I do not necessarily think that Bitcoin is going to zero, we are certainly pressing the issue at this point and one would have to think that it may not take too much to get Bitcoin to break down. The CPI numbers coming out of America during the trading session on Wednesday could be the next catalyst because it could drive the US dollar much higher, which would work against Bitcoin in general. On the other hand, if there is less likelihood of an aggressive Federal Reserve after the CPI figure, a falling US dollar might allow Bitcoin to rally a bit.

I would not get too excited about any rally at this point though, because the trend is most decidedly against crypto in general. Furthermore, the US dollar will continue to be bullish from a longer-term standpoint, mainly because there is a lot of risk aversion out there. In other words, I think any rally at this point will more than likely be an opportunity to start shorting again. As far as buying is concerned, I do not have any interest in doing so, and as things stand right now we would have to wipe out the candlestick from the Monday session at the very least. As things stand, crypto does not look very healthy, and at this point, I would be very cautious about buying any. I know that a lot of people jumped in with Michael Saylor during the trading session as this is roughly near his cost basis, but that has nothing to do with anything that can make your money.