The pair will likely keep falling after it moved below the triangle pattern.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 1.3040 and set a take-profit at 1.2970.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.3120.
• Timeline: 1 day.

Bullish View

• Set a take-profit at 1.3120 and a take-profit at 1.3200.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.3050.

The overall strength of the US dollar pushed the GBP/USD price below a key support level. The pair dropped to a low of 1.3042, which was the lowest level since March 16th. It has fallen by 1.72% below the highest point in March.

Strong US Dollar

The GBP/USD pair declined because of the strength of the US dollar. The dollar index crossed the important resistance level of 100 on Wednesday as the American yield curve continued inverting.

The difference between the 10-year and 2-year bond yields declined to the lowest level in years. As a result, analysts expect that there will be a recession in the next few months as the Fed embraces a more hawkish tone.

Minutes published by the Fed showed that most members of the FOMC believe that it is necessary to accelerate the pace of rate hikes. As a result, they expect that the bank will hike in the remaining six meetings of this year. Some of those hikes are expected to be 0.50%. This explains why government bond yields have risen to the highest level in over three years.

The GBP/USD has declined because analysts expect that the Bank of England (BOE) will lag the Fed in rate hikes. While the bank has already implemented three rate hikes, Andrew Bailey has warned that a pause is necessary as the bank reflects on the past hikes. He also expects that the economy will suffer because of the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The economic calendar will not have any major events from the UK and US today. Therefore, investors will continue to reflect on the Fed minutes. In the UK, Halifax will publish the latest house price index (HPI), which is expected to show that prices held steady in March. The US will also publish the latest initial jobless claims data.

GBP/USD Forecast

The GBP/USD pair moved below the important support level at 1.3110 as the US dollar strength prevailed. This was an important price since it was at the tip of the symmetrical triangle pattern. It has moved below the 25-day moving average. It also tested the crucial support level at 1.3047, which was the lowest point on March 29th.

Therefore, the pair will likely keep falling after it moved below the triangle pattern. If this happens, the next key support level to watch will be at 1.3000.

Since the triangle pattern is nearing its confluence zone, there is a likelihood that it will have a breakout soon.

Bullish View

• Buy the BTC/USD pair and a take-profit at 48,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 43,000.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 44,000 and a take-profit at 42,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 46,000.

The BTC/USD pair remained in a tight range in the past few days as the recent rally took a breather. The pair is trading at 45,920, which is about 4.8% below the highest point last week. It is substantially higher than its lowest point this year.

Bitcoin Activity Rising

The Bitcoin price has been in a narrow range even as supply concerns remain. Data compiled by Glassnode shows that the number of Bitcoins that have been mined have passed the 19 million mark. This means that only about 2 million coins are yet to be mined, meaning that the difficulty of mining will keep rising in the coming years.

At the same time, many large investors are buying Bitcoin as a form of financial collateral. The most recent big buyer was the Luna Foundation Guard, which announced that it would acquire Bitcoin worth $10 billion. The goal of its purchase is to use the coins as the backstop for the UST algorithmic stablecoin.

In the same period, MicroStrategy announced that it was spending over $200 million to increase its Bitcoin holdings. At the current price, the value of all Bitcoins it owns is higher than the total market cap of the firm. Most importantly, the total market cap of wrapped Bitcoin has been rising in the past few months.

Still, in aggregate, most exchanges are seeing net outflows, with Bitcoin balances in most exchanges falling to multi-year lows. But, according to Glassnode, many whales have continued to accumulate the coin.

The BTC/USD pair has also wavered as investors react to the ongoing risks of high-interest rates and quantitative tightening. In a statement on Tuesday, Lael Brainard became the first official to warn that the bank will start quantitative tightening soon.

BTC/USD Forecast

The 4H chart reveals that the pair has been in consolidation mode recently. It is trading at 45,920, where it has been in the past few days. The pair has also formed a symmetrical triangle pattern that is shown in green. The Average True Range (ATR) has dropped, signaling that volatility has faded.

Therefore, since the triangle pattern is nearing its confluence zone, there is a likelihood that it will have a breakout soon. While the direction of this breakout is unknown, there is a possibility that it will be in the upper side.