I think it is far too early to think that Bitcoin is going to turn around, and central banks around the world continue to tighten monetary policy.

The BTC/USD has bounced ever so slightly during the trading session on Monday to continue to test the $20,000 region. This is an area that obviously has a lot of psychology attached to it, but the reality is that the market will more likely than not continue to mess around in this area until we get some type of resolution.

If we break down below the last couple of days, then it’s possible that we could break down rather significantly. The market breaking down below that area opens to the possibility of a drop-down to the $15,000 level, and then eventually the $12,000 level. The $12,000 level is where the entire rally kicked off from, so would be a 100% retracement. You see that a lot in crypto it seems, so at this point, I still believe that is a very real threat, especially if risk appetite continues to be so poor.

At this point, we are testing the $20,000 level to see if it will hold as support. We have bounced all the way to roughly $24,000, before pulling back to this area. The 50-Day EMA sits below the $24,000 level and is dropping, so I think that will offer a little bit of dynamic resistance.

Monetary Policy Likely to Hinder Bitcoin

• I think it is far too early to think that Bitcoin is going to turn around, and central banks around the world continue to tighten monetary policy.
• It’s a bit ironic because I’m old enough to remember when Bitcoin was supposed to be completely independent of central banks, but that illusion has been shattered.
• If the US dollar strengthens and interest rates rise, that is horrible for Bitcoin.

In a word, Bitcoin is nothing special, it’s simply another commodity as far as traders are concerned. In fact, it has a very similar profile to other commodities, so you must trade it as such.

I think we do break down, especially as the US dollar has been like a wrecking ball. The US dollar is a little overextended so a little bit of a relief rally would not be completely out of the question. However, at the first signs of exhaustion, I suspect that I will be on my CFD platform looking to short this market. I would not get bullish until we broke over the $25,000 level at the very minimum.

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After attaining short term highs late last week, the USD/BRL has reversed lower and yesterday’s depths have it within sight of important support.

The USD/BRL closed near the 5.1037 level yesterday and a low of nearly 5.0700 was achieved. The depth of value tested yesterday touched values last seen on the 12^th and 15^th of August. Intriguingly after testing the lower marks in the second week of August, the USD/BRL currency pair then began to climb higher reaching a short term result of nearly 5.2190 on the 19^th.

The moves of the USD/BRL have mirrored the results of many major currency pairs, but traders should remember that transactional volumes remains choppy at times and volatile spikes can develop which seem to follow no correlation to global Forex momentarily. The opening for the USD/BRL today as always should be monitored, because current values are within sight of rather important technical support, which if tested could prove to be a dynamic lynchpin and cause price action turbulence.

Support near the 5.1000 USD/BRL should be monitored for Implications

If the 5.1000 support level is penetrated lower and the price is sustained beneath, this could cause speculators to believe the USD/BRL has the capability to test values seen the 10^th of August through the 16^th.  However, while trading near lows of around 5.0340 to 5.0950 the USD/BRL also saw strong moves higher which tested the fortitude of speculators. Risk management remains essential while wagering on the USD/BRL because tranquil days can turn into sudden storms.

• The price range of 5.0975 to 5.1140 should be watched as the USD/BRL opens because the pair often produces gaps which can prove troubling for speculators without risk tactics in place.
• Short term traders should be ready for choppy conditions as the USD/BRL tests lows and global Forex conditions remain within a nervous behavioral sentiment cloud.

Reversals are certain to occur in the USD/BRL as the Trading Range is Tested Short Term

Traders may be tempted to look for upside in the USD/BRL if the 5.0950 to 5.1025 support levels hold for short term wagers looking for quick hitting results.  Traders of the USD/BRL in the near time should be ready for a test of the current range and not be overly ambitious, meaning they should be willing to cash out winning trades if they develop and then wait for other technical ratios to develop.

The USD/BRL will certainly react to policy speeches which come from the Jackson Hole meetings over the next few days in Wyoming. Strong hawkish Federal Reserve policy will likely serve as counterweight for the USD/BRL as it tests support levels. If U.S central bank policy speeches in the next few days suggest more interest rate hikes beyond what is expected in September, the USD/BRL could find reason to be bought again and produce a test of resistance levels.

Brazilian Real Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance:  5.1149

Current Support:  5.0929

High Target: 5.1726

Low Target:  5.0445

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The USD/BRL fell to fresh lows on Monday and then demonstrated rather consolidated price action as important support levels came into sight.

When the USD/BRL opens today it could potentially be hit with a sudden burst of activity and traders need to be cautious early in the day. Yesterday’s results saw the USD/BRL currency pair close near the 5.1250 mark and this outcome kept price action within sight of important support levels not sincerely seen since the middle of June.

While the results from Monday are intriguing, today’s outcome could produce equally fascinating speculative opportunities for USD/BRL traders. The USD/BRL has produced a solid amount of bearish price action since the first week of August. A high of nearly 5.3160 was seen on the 3^rd of August. Traders should note that reversals upward have occurred too, this has not been a one way direction.

On the 21^st of July the USD/BRL was trading near the 5.3100 ratio. The bearish price action in the Forex pair has been clear since then, but again pursuit of selling positions has not be a clear path to victory for traders, risk management has been essential to produce solid trading results. Yesterday’s trading which saw the USD/BRL trade lower than its outcome demonstrated on Friday, which saw volatile conditions via a sudden burst higher to nearly 5.2800 and then a strong drop to nearly 5.1500 is noteworthy.

Current Support Ratios Need to be Monitored Closely as Values from June are Tested

The U.S will release key inflation data today and if the Consumer Price Index numbers are stronger than expected this could spur on short term buying of the USD/BRL. Today’s outcome from the U.S CPI numbers will produce sudden fireworks across Forex and the USD/BRL is certain to be effected by the results as financial houses react to the news.

• Support near the 5.1025 level could prove important; if this number proves vulnerable the USD/BRL could see more selling and the 5.0800 ratio become a target.
• If U.S CPI numbers are stronger than expected, the USD/BRL could produce a burst higher and resistance near the 5.1600 to 5.1800 levels should be watched diligently.

Cautious USD/BRL Trading Techniques could be Worthwhile before U.S data is released

The USD/BRL is trading near crucial support levels, but the publication of the U.S economic data will certainly create fast conditions for the USD/BRL based on the outcome.  The USD/BRL has certainly enjoyed a rather solid bearish cycle since the 21^st of July, and today’s inflation data from the U.S may be a key for the currency pair over the near term.

If data meets expectations the USD/BRL may maintain its bearish mode and see support below tested. Traders need to be careful today and cautious traders may want to see the outcome of the U.S inflation data and let the USD/BRL calm down before attempting to pursue positions.

Brazilian Real Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance:  5.1520

Current Support:  5.1049

High Target: 5.2030

Low Target:  5.07800

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A lot of this is going to come down to the Federal Reserve as well, as we are watching inflation very closely.

• The BTC/USD currency pair rallied a bit Monday as we continue to see quite a bit of buying pressure.
• Ultimately, this is a market that has to pay close attention to risk appetite globally, especially as Bitcoin is so volatile.
• If risk appetite starts to fall off, Bitcoin could get slammed.
• BlackRock has recently got involved in Bitcoin via Coinbase, and it plans on offering Bitcoin to 200 institutional clients.

Technical Analysis

If we do break above the $25,000 level, it’s likely that the bitcoin market could go to the $28,000 level. The $28,000 level is the beginning of rather significant resistance that extends all the way to the $32,000 level. The $32,000 level being broken to the upside could send this market much higher, thereby kicking off a bullish run. I don’t think that’s going to be the case anytime soon, but it’s something to keep in the back of your mind. If we were to break out above there, then we go much higher.

If we turn around and break down below the 50-day EMA, then it could open up quite a bit of selling pressure, opening up the possibility of reaching the $20,000 level. The $20,000 level obviously has a significant amount of psychology attached to it, so you should pay close attention if we do break down below it. If we do, that could open up quite a bit of selling pressure, causing a lot of noise. In that scenario, Bitcoin could see the bottom fall out of it. I don’t necessarily think that’s going to be the case, at least not in the short term. However, if we do get that breakdown, it might lead to a nice drop down to the $12,000 level. The $12,000 level is an area that a lot of people have an interest in, so I think that might be the beginning of the building of a major accumulation phase. At that point, we would probably see a lot of sideways action before ultimately turning things around and kicking off a new bullish trend. If we don’t, that would be an extraordinarily negative turn of events for Bitcoin. A lot of this is going to come down to the Federal Reserve as well, as we are watching inflation very closely.

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BNB/USD has been able to reverse from this weekend’s darkest depths, and this short term test of highs will certainly challenge the opinions of speculators.

BNB/USD is trading near 222.0000 as of this writing. This short term high is testing ratios seen on the 17^th of June when Binance Coin came within sight of the 220.0000 level also. However this past Saturday as most speculators know, BNB/USD moved towards a low on nearly 182.5000, as the broad cryptocurrency market experienced a wicked selloff of mammoth proportions. The ability of BNB/USD to climb higher is noteworthy, but the reversal likely doesn’t mean the long term bearish trend is dead.

BNB/USD has been able to produce a solid move higher in the past two days. But skeptical traders who believe more downside momentum is going to be generated may actually look at the recent results and consider selling positions around the current price levels. If BNB/USD is able to trade above the 222.0000 and sustain this price action it would be a positive sign, but Binance Coin likely needs to pass the 225.0000 juncture and show it can sustain this value to encourage additional technical buying speculators.

While the current move upwards may be encouraging to some traders, speculators who have pursued the long term bearish trend in the broad cryptocurrency markets remain strong as a group.  The downward trajectory of BNB/USD mirrors the overall price action of its major counterparts and the recent move higher may be looked upon as a ‘suckers rally’.

If BNB/USD were to build momentum from its current price this could certainly be enticing for short term moves targeting the 223.0000 to 225.0000 ratios. However, this move upwards could also trigger selling positions, which believe lower moves will be ignited based on the assumption bearish momentum will show its strength again.

Short term traders should be ready for choppy conditions over the next couple of days.  Reversals higher have certainly taken place and some traders may want to grasp for quick hitting buying positions which target nearby resistance as take profits goals. However, until a considerable amount of resistance levels are toppled, sellers may continue to dominate price action as they seek the return of strong declines in the broad cryptocurrency market including BNB/USD.

If BNB/USD is not able to maintain the 2220.0000 level and slips below the 220.0000 mark, sellers may begin to feel that shorting Binance Coin is worthwhile.  If BNB/USD begins to show signs of weakness and suddenly cannot maintain its lower support ratios of 220.0000 to 218.0000, further erosion could quickly develop.

Binance Coin Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 225.5300

Current Support: 218.1900

High Target: 237.5000

Low Target: 189.1600

SHIB/USD bounced to short-term highs on Sunday and early this morning, but its move higher has shown signs of a lower trajectory in the past couple of hours.

SHIB/USD fell to new lows on Saturday. as the onslaught in the broad cryptocurrency market produced widespread panic. As bad as things got early this weekend, SHIB/USD has not fallen through its lower values of late September 2021. While optimists may try to point to this feat of not falling to long term lows like its major counterparts as an accomplishment, Shiba Inu has still sustained substantial losses. The low of nearly 0.00000710 this weekend shows the bearish trend is still forcefully causing problems.

In later trading last night SHIB/USD did climb to a ratio of nearly 0.00000823. However this move upwards has seemingly hit gravity and SHIB/USD has moved lower, and is now hovering below the fractional level of 0.00000800. Speculators of Shiba Inu must understand that SHIB/USD is purely a wager on behavioral sentiment within the broad cryptocurrency market. Clearly after this weekend’s fall to new lows for the likes of Bitcoin and Ethereum, fragile conditions persist.

Yes, a move higher was attained in the past day, but most traders likely remain skeptics and concerned regarding what is going to happen near term. While SHIB/USD certainly reversed off of Saturday’s lows, it did start to test marks seen in late September of 2021 when it was hitting bottom during this weekend’s early selling mayhem. If current support levels continue to prove vulnerable it is completely realistic to imagine SHIB/USD could fall below the 0.00000700 juncture. Timing the market remains an extremely difficult task.

Because of the fractional and fast paced trading within SHIB/USD bettors are urged to use entry price targets to ignite trades. The broad market conditions may prove to be very choppy at best in the coming days. The move higher in the past day can be viewed as a potential ‘dead cat bounce’, meaning that the market has reversed higher and may attract speculators on the buy side only to watch SHIB/USD and other cryptocurrencies to fall in value once again.

Traders who have survived this past weekend’s carnage and can still speculate may want to try and sell SHIB/USD on moves higher. This tactic means that traders should wait for technical resistance levels to prove durable and launch their selling positions from the higher levels. If SHIB/USD struggles to surpass the 0.00000800 juncture in the short term, it could be a sign that another stronger downturn will ensue.

Shiba Inu Coin Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.00000823

Current Support: 0.00000753

High Target: 0.00000857

Low Target: 0.00000710

BNB/USD is traversing near important short-term support, and the potential combination of troubling behavioral sentiment may spark volatile conditions near term.

BNB/USD is trading above 294.0000 as of this writing and it is within sight of important short-term support levels. While Binance Coin has certainly risen off of lows seen this time last week, when BNB/USD briefly spiked to lows beneath the 224.0000 ratio, nervous trading conditions remain abundant and speculators should brace for the potential of additional volatile days ahead.

BNB/USD is near crucial lows and if the 290.0000 mark becomes vulnerable in the short term another dose of strong selling could erupt.  Speculators with their eyes on upside price action based on the notion the cryptocurrency market remains oversold, may want to keep their ambitions in check and use fast hitting take profit orders when higher moves have attained perceived technical resistance to cash in their profits. From a behavioral sentiment viewpoint the broad cryptocurrency market appears to be fragile.

The risk reward scenarios for technical traders based on the strong bearish trend which have been loud and clear in the marketplace short and long term, underscores the potential for further moves downward. The ability of BNB/USD to climb off of last week’s low water marks was impressive, but Binance Coin has shown limited ability to climb above and sustain prices over the 300.0000 realm in the short term and continues to look rather weak.

Speculators who believe BNB/USD will explore lower depths may want to remain conservative, and launch their selling positions after a brief run higher towards anticipated resistance levels. Because of the widespread nervous conditions which have been demonstrated in cryptocurrencies the past week, traders need to remain cautious regarding the use of leverage and entry price orders are definitely urged. Selling BNB/USD and looking for support levels near the 293.0000 to 291.0000 ratios could prove to be a solid worthwhile wager short term.

If broad market nervousness spills over into BNB/USD again and support near the 290.3500 level begins to falter this could set off alarm bells among speculators. A move below the 289.0000 mark could spur greater price velocity in the near term. If selling pressure mounts a retest of the 278.0000 price junctures would not be a surprise. Yesterday’s trading, and the previous two days have produced incrementally lower resistance levels which is a potential negative price signal for Binance Coin.

Binance Coin Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 301.4500

Current Support: 290.3500

High Target: 311.1500

Low Target: 271.0000

I think we are going to continue to struggle with volatility.

The gold markets fell on Monday to reach the 200-day EMA yet again. The 200-day EMA is an indicator that has offered dynamic support for the last several days in a row, and attracts a lot of attention from longer-term traders. The gold markets have been falling for a while but have tested the indicator multiple times.

So far, the 200-day EMA has been held, and it does suggest that there is a certain amount of interest in this area. Furthermore, it is at an area that had been resistant previously, and the form of $1850. As long as we can stay above the $1850 level, then it is likely that there is at least an opportunity to consolidate, maybe even recover if we get lucky. However, we are essentially bouncing around between the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicators, which typically means we are about to build up a lot of inertia, and then kick off a bigger move in one direction or the other.

Gold has been struggling due to a strengthening US dollar, something that had been one of the mainstays of the Monday session. We saw the greenback strengthen quite drastically, and this had a negative influence on the gold market. That being said, if the market was to break down below the $1850 level, then it is likely that the market would go looking to reach the $1800 level. The $1800 level is an area where we had launched previously, so it would make sense that buyers would show up to try to defend the market at that point. “Market memory” would dictate that we should see action in that area.

When you look at this chart, you can see clearly that we have been selling off quite significantly over the last several weeks, and I think we are going to continue to struggle with volatility. Pay close attention to the interest rates coming out of the United States, because if the yield on the 10-year note continues to skyrocket, that will work. After all, bonds are starting to offer a bit of a “real yield” at the moment. It is not until we break above the 50-day EMA that I would be a buyer of gold, something that does not look likely in the short term.

I think we are looking at a situation where you cannot buy Neo until we break above the 50-day EMA on a daily close.

Neo fell ever so slightly on Friday in relatively quiet trading. Looking at the chart, the $16 level continues to be supported, and the action on Friday will have only reiterated that. The market continues to see this area as important, so you have to pay close attention to it. The market bouncing from here does make quite a bit of sense, but I do not necessarily think that it is going to change anything.

When you look at this chart, the $16 level being broken below could open up the possibility for a move down to the $15 level. The $15 level offers a bit of psychological support as well, so if we were to break down below that level, Neo will almost certainly break apart. The market will be highly influenced by the larger coins in the crypto markets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum as per usual, so you will have to pay attention to those markets as well.

In fact, you could say that Neo looks a lot like Bitcoin at the moment, as we have seen Bitcoin turn around to show signs of support. The $19.50 level above is significant resistance, right along with the 50-day EMA in the Neo market, so I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before we see sellers jumping into the market. I would be more than willing to short the first signs of exhaustion on a daily candlestick, but until then I think it is simply going to be a very noisy market. Nonetheless, I think it is only a matter of time before Neo falls, as it seems to be out of favor. It is probably worth noting that the market has tested this area multiple times, so I think we will see a little bit of a breakdown. It is also worth noting that we have been in a downtrend for some time, so I think we are looking at a situation where you cannot buy Neo until we break above the 50-day EMA on a daily close. If that were to happen, then it is likely that we go looking toward the $25 level, perhaps even the 200-day EMA after that.

I have no interest in buying Ethereum in the short term, but longer term it may end up being a nice investing opportunity.

Ethereum fell significantly on Friday to show further weakness. At this point, the market is likely to continue to see downward pressure, as the $2750 level will be supported. If we break down below there, then the market is likely to continue going much lower, perhaps reaching the $2500 level.

Just above, the $3000 level is further backed up by the 50-day EMA, and the 200-day EMA. Because of this, it will be interesting to see how this plays out due to the fact that the crypto markets in general have struggled, and the US dollar has been very strong. The Ethereum markets are pretty far out on the risk spectrum, so institutional money will be running away from it. As long as there are major concerns around the world, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where the crypto markets take off to the upside, and I do think that there is further pain ahead. Short-term rallies will more than likely offer selling opportunities, as we continue to see a real lack of interest.

Further causing problems is the fact that Ethereum continues to struggle moving forward. The Ethereum improvements seem to never be coming, and if that is going to be the case it is likely that we will continue to be a bit hesitant to get involved. The $2500 level underneath has been significant support previously, so I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before buyers would come back into the picture. That being said, I think that a lot of traders are looking at this through the prism of weakness, so I think it is only a matter of time before we get short again. The markets will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior but given enough time I think we have got a situation where rallies continue to offer opportunities to the short side. If we break down below the $2500 level, the market then goes looking to the $2000 level. Ultimately, I have no interest in buying Ethereum in the short term, but longer term it may end up being a nice investing opportunity. I do not see it happening anytime soon though, so keep in mind that we will continue to be noisy and you need to be cautious about your position size.