This is a market that I think continues to show negativity, so I like the idea of shorting signs of exhaustion if we get those.

• The AUD/USD currency pair fell significantly Friday as interest rates in America started to spike again.
• The jobs number came out much hotter than anticipated, so people are starting to assume that the Federal Reserve will have to continue to be very tight.
• After all, the Federal Reserve has been trying to tell everybody over the past week that they are nowhere near pivoting, and the US dollar shrinking was a bit of a stretch.

Technical Analysis

At this point, the market is threatening to 0.69 level, which is an area that I think a lot of people pay close attention to. We did pierce that level at one point, but then turned around to rally and break above it. This does not suggest to me that the market is ready to turn around for a bigger move, just that we are struggling a bit at this point. If we can break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then I think that it’s likely that the Aussie will go looking to the 0.68 level. After that, we could open up a move down to the 0.67 level. If we were to break down below the 0.67 level, then that would be a major turnaround in the market, and perhaps open up a rush of selling.

On the other hand, if we were to rally at this point, the 50-day EMA just above is going to cause a little bit of technical resistance, and then possibly the 0.70 level. The 0.70 level is a major area of noise all the way to the 0.7050 level. If we were to break above the 0.7050 level, then it’s possible that we could go much higher. If we break above there, then we would be looking at a potential move to the 200-day EMA.

This is a market that I think continues to show negativity, so I like the idea of shorting signs of exhaustion if we get those. At this point in time, it’s likely that we will see the US dollar strengthen given enough time. However, I think it continues to be very noisy to say the least, so it’s likely that we will have plenty of short-term selling opportunities in what is going to be a longer-term move.

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I believe Solana is about to show its hand, and it is our job to follow whatever it tells us to do next.

Solana has shown itself to be attracted to the $80 level underneath, an area that should be supported based on historical action. This being said, it is an important day in the crypto markets, because the Federal Reserve has a very vital FOMC statement, and perhaps more importantly, a press conference afterward to give markets an idea of what they are going next. Quite frankly, a lot of the economic numbers have deteriorated rapidly, so it will be interesting to see how much wiggle room the Federal Reserve decides to give the markets.

While Solana is not the first thing you think of when it comes to the Federal Reserve, the fact is that you are measuring it against the US dollar. Extrapolating this out even further, you are measuring risk appetite, and crypto, in general, is pretty far out on that spectrum. As long as that is the case, Solana is going to struggle without some type of animal spirit entering the marketplace. Remember, Bitcoin is the first place people put money when it comes to the crypto markets, followed by Ethereum. It is only after that the people start to think about places like Solana.

The $80 level underneath has been significant support multiple times, so we are certainly in an area where you would expect some type of bounce. Whether we get that bounce will remain to be seen, but if we get a daily close below the $70 level, I suspect that Solana is in major trouble. At that point, I would become aggressively short not only Solana but probably multiple smaller coins as well. On the other hand, if we can turn around and wipe out the negative candlestick from the Monday session, that might be enough to have money flowing back into this market. Longer-term prospects for Solana look rather interesting, so if you are an investor, you may look at a plunge as an opportunity to pick up more, but if you are a trader this is a very dangerous day, to say the least. Ultimately, we have some decisions to make we will likely make them rather soon. I believe Solana is about to show its hand, and it is our job to follow whatever it tells us to do next. We should have clarity in the next few days.

The US dollar strengthening has been a bit of a wrecking ball against most commodities, and we are starting to feel that in crude oil as well.

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market broke down on Monday as we continue to see a lot of concerns when it comes to global growth. After all, if global growth continues to falter, that will more than likely drive down demand for crude oil. After all, the market continues to hang at this uptrend line, and as long as we can stay above it, there is still hope for the oil market to go higher.

That being said, you should pay close attention to the OVX, because it has shown that there has been a lot of volatility in the oil market as of late. As long as we continue to see elevated volatility in this market, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where we see crude oil has an easy route higher. This is not to say it cannot rally, just that it is going to be very difficult. At this point, I would need to see a break above the highs of the trading candlestick for Monday, as it could open up the possibility of a move to the $104 level. After that, then we have a downtrend line that a lot of people will pay close attention to.

If the market were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Monday, then it is very likely that we will make a serious attempt to break down. Breaking down below the uptrend line opens up a move to the $95 level, and then possibly even down to the $90 level. The $90 level is an area where you would see a lot of noise, and interest due to the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we have seen action in the past. After that, then we would have the 200ay-d EMA possibly coming into the picture, which is sitting right at the $85 level.

Keep in mind that we will continue to be very noisy, and a lot of this is going to come down to whether or not we have risk appetite in the overall markets. The US dollar strengthening has been a bit of a wrecking ball against most commodities, and we are starting to feel that in crude oil as well.

The market is more likely than not going to have to make a bigger decision sooner or later, but until then, you simply wait for the market tell you which way it is going to go.

Neo has gone back and forth during the trading session on Monday as the $20 level continues to be important. The $20 level will continue to be a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will be paying attention to, and also it is worth noting that there is a lot of support just below there as well. As you can see from the previous action, there has been a lot of buying pressure underneath the $20 level that has kept this market somewhat afloat. The market will continue to pay close attention to that range, and if we break down below the $17.50 level, then it is possible that Neo goes looking to reach the $15 level.

The 50 Day EMA currently sits at the $23.25 level and is drifting lower. The 50 Day EMA is an indicator that a lot of people will pay close attention to, and if we were to break above there it is likely that Neo would recover just a bit further. After that, the market then goes looking to reach the $25 level, perhaps even the $29 level after that.

Keep in mind that Neo needs a little bit of help from the major coins in order to have people look for reasons to get involved here. Neo is essentially far out on the risk spectrum of a market that is pretty far out on the risk spectrum. If Bitcoin were to suddenly rise, then it is very likely that Neo could get a little bit of a boost. The market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior in this general vicinity, so I think the next impulsive candlestick will be crucial.

The other part of the equation of course is a US dollar, and if it starts to strengthen quite drastically, it could have a negative effect on the Neo market. Overall, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, and therefore you have to keep that in mind. I would not go “all in” right away, but you could start to build a small position if you get a little bit of clarity in this market. The market is more likely than not going to have to make a bigger decision sooner or later, but until then, you simply wait for the market tell you which way it is going to go.

XRP/USD has endured lower price action and after slipping again this weekend is testing support levels which are creating speculative opportunities.

XRP/USD is within the lower part of its one month price range.  Having attained a high above 91 cents on the 28^th of March, Ripple now is below 74 cents in rather quick trading. Nervous conditions are driving the broad cryptocurrency market again and XRP/USD is feeling the heat. The current price of Ripple is touching a price it last experienced on the 15^th, this morning’s price action has not calmed XRP/USD, instead it looks like more fuel has been thrown into the trading sphere.

Traders are advised to compare the prices quoted in this report to the actual market. In the past hour XRP/USD and other major cryptos have seen their support levels become fragile. Important values in the lower depths of mid-term price ranges are being tested. If XRP/USD continues to falter and breaks below current depths, it may cause speculators to believe the entire bullish parade upwards which started in the first week of March may be about to end for Ripple.

Ripple is affected by rumblings via its U.S court case which is still being fought with government regulators periodically. XRP/USD is also affected by mechanisms within its banking business which serves as a way to transfer money internationally.  

However, XRP/USD remains a volatile cryptocurrency like all others. Having touched a low of nearly 62 cents on the 24^th of February, the climb created by Ripple which touched late March highs above 91 cent created a significant percentage gain. The problem for traders who remain bullish is that support levels are once again acting like magnets. Hopes that the long term bearish trend within the broad cryptocurrency market may have evaporated is beginning to look like wishful thinking, as trading has remained negative for nearly three full weeks.

Sellers of XRP/USD may be making the logical decision in the near term. Cautious leverage amounts and stop loss ratios should be considered carefully. If XRP/USD is able to break through the 73 cents support level and see its price sustained below this juncture, this would be a negative signal. Even if XRP/USD remains below the 74 cents mark, this could add to nervous sentiment and cause speculators to remain unoptimistic as this week of trading begins. The 72 to 71 cents ratios may prove to capable targets lower sooner rather than later.

Ripple Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.76160

Current Support: 0.73250

High Target: 0.77630

Low Target: 0.71690

Right now I think the only thing we can count on is that things are going to be very noisy over the next several weeks.

The S&P 500 fell a bit on Wednesday to test the bottom of the bullish flag that we have been trying to form. The 50-day EMA is where the market stopped and finally turned back around. By doing so, the market looks very likely to continue seeing buyers, and a bounce from this point could send the market back to the top of the flag pattern.

If we can break above the downtrend line that makes up the top of the flag, then we could go much higher. That being said, there are a lot of concerns out there that continue to plague the markets, and it is likely that we will see a lot of volatility because of it. Ultimately, this is a market that given enough time will have to make a bigger decision, but right now it appears that we are at a bit of a loss as to what we want to do.

The Federal Reserve has released the FOMC Meeting Minutes during the day on Wednesday, showing signs of hawkishness that people were not aware of. If that is going to continue to be the case, it could cause even more volatility in the stock index. It should be noted that the S&P 500 almost solely moves on the idea of liquidity and has nothing to do with economic reality. The S&P 500 pulling back to the 50-day EMA in the futures market and bouncing is a good sign, but right now I think the only thing we can count on is that things are going to be very noisy over the next several weeks.

If we were to break down below the candlestick for the trading session on Wednesday, it could open up a move to the 200-day EMA, which is right at the 4400 level. Breaking down below that level then opens up the possibility of an even bigger drop, perhaps opening up the S&P 500 futures to go down to the 4200 level. At this point, this is a market that continues to see that area as an area where there have been a lot of buying pressure in the past.