The relative calm of August trading is likely to fully disappear in the coming days, as traders react to more nervous sentiment and the USD/ZAR could prove very choppy.

The USD/ZAR is trading near the 17.00000 level as of this writing, as bullish speculation gets plenty of consideration.

The USD/ZAR is trading within sight of the 17.00000 with active price action abundant.  On cue in the midst of the storm created by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday, the USD/ZAR currency pair went from a low of nearly 16.71000 to 16.90000 without much hesitation. Via early transactions this morning the USD/ZAR has continued to move incrementally higher and is touching key psychological ratios near 17.00000.

17.00000 Could prove to be Lynchpin for Dynamic Movement in USD/ZAR this week

It may seem quite simple to say the 17.00000 is important psychologically, but having broken this ratio higher already in July and only last week, the USD/ZAR may start to create a group of ‘backers’ who believe the forex pair should be above this level fundamentally for the time being . Global market conditions remain nervous and last week’s Jackson Hole central bankers’ conference has done little to soothe the minds of financial houses.

Technically the 17.00000 has been punctured enough in recent memory to have created a framework of belief this level can prove vulnerable again.  If the 17.00000 level is toppled and the 17.05000 mark begins to be flirted with it could set the stage for another round of dynamic speculative buying. Only one week ago the USD/ZAR touched the 17.13600 mark. And in July the USD/ZAR traded above 17.20000.

Traders need to be prepared for the Potential of a rather Turbulent Week in the USD/ZAR

• The relative calm of August trading is likely to fully disappear in the coming days, as traders react to more nervous sentiment and the USD/ZAR could prove very choppy.
• Global conditions in Forex remain intense as a strong USD causes problems with a handful of emerging market currencies; the USD/ZAR is reflecting this whirlwind of results as it tests highs.

Speculators should not be overly ambitious in the short term.  Quick hitting trades which look for realistic targets may prove to produce the best results in the near term. If sustained trading takes place above the 17.00000 level this will spark intrigue for the USD/ZAR and could allure more bullish sentiment.

However, the USD/ZAR will need to sustain value above the 17.14000 ratio in order to build a strong surge higher which then tests July’s highs. If the USD/ZAR were to stumble to the 16.93000 to 16.87000 ratios it may be tempting as a place to ignite buying positions based on the notion more upside price movement will occur.

USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 17.04900

Current Support: 16.93200

High Target: 17.15800

Low Target: 16.81000

Ready to trade our daily Forex analysis? We’ve made a list of the best Forex brokers worth trading with.

It’s probably only a matter of time before we see the market come back to shorting the Euro.

• The EUR/USD currency pair has rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to hang about the 50 Day EMA.
• More importantly, the 1.04 level above continues to be significant resistance, as it has a lot of “market memory” built into it.
• That is an area that previously had been significant support, and therefore I think it makes quite a bit of sense that we would see a reaction every time we get close to that level.

For what it is worth, you can see that we have stopped dead in our tracks at the same highs as we had during the previous session, so Thursday looks like there is still going to be a bit of confusion and perhaps fear out there, which makes quite a bit of sense considering that the Euro is getting a lot of noise coming out of the region when it comes to potential selling, especially as energy will be a problem for the EU this winter. In other words, we may see a major breakdown in economic growth. In fact, things are getting so bad in Germany that they are starting to slow down the amount of gas being used.

At this point, the European Union has a lot of issues, not the least of which would be a flagrant lack of leadership. The interest rates in the United States continue to be much higher than the European Union, and it’s also worth noting that the ECB has to buy almost all Italian debt, because things have gotten so bad in that market. In other words, there’s no real reason to think that the European Union is suddenly going to strengthen.

Part of the bounce that we have seen in this pair has been due to the fact that the interest rates in America have slowed down a bit. Ultimately, the market is looking more at the possibility of inflation slowing down a bit in the United States, and therefore the idea is that the Federal Reserve will not have to be as tight as it had been. This is complete nonsense because inflation is still running at 8.5% year-over-year, and therefore it’s probably only a matter of time before we see the market come back to shorting the Euro. Even if we break above the 1.04 level, we still have a significant amount of resistance of the 1.06 level as well.

Ready to trade our daily Forex analysis? We’ve made a list of the best brokers to trade Forex worth using.

It would not take much to spook the market again and send risk assets such as Ethereum tumbling.

• Ethereum rallied again Monday as traders continue to bet on the upgrade coming down the road as a positive sign.
• It’s worth noting that we are in the beginning area of a major resistance barrier that starts at the $1800 level and extends all the way to the $2000 level.
• It should be noted that Ethereum is outperforming most other markets right now, including Bitcoin.

Market Anticipates Successful Merge

Whether or not “The merge” comes through without a hitch is a completely different question, but as things stand right now, it looks like the market is willing to believe that. Whether or not Ethereum is the future is a completely different question as well, but from a technical analysis standpoint, it certainly looks as if market participants are at least trying to make that argument.

Breaking above the $2000 level brings into focus the 200 Day EMA, which is at roughly $2250 and diving lower. I think that will be difficult to get through, and it’s more likely than not that we will eventually get some type of pullback that we can focus on. Currently, it looks like we are in more of a grinding phase than anything else. Remember that there are a lot of concerns out there when it comes to risk appetite, and the CPI numbers coming out of the United States much cooler than anticipated gives a little bit of credence to riskier assets such as crypto going higher.

That being said, we are still in a very tenuous situation with inflation running over three times with the Federal Reserve likes. In other words, it would not take much to spook the market again and send risk assets such as Ethereum tumbling. I’m not necessarily calling for some type of meltdown, just that we still have a lot of downside risks.

On a breakdown, I would anticipate that the 50-day EMA, currently near the $1350 region and curling higher, could offer a little bit of dynamic support. It’s also very possible that we could see the $1500 level offer a bit of support as well. Pay attention to Bitcoin, because if it starts selling off drastically, that will have a bit of a “knock-on effect” over here as well. Granted, Ethereum seems to be leading the way but over the longer-term Bitcoin is still the king.

The Gold market has to decide what it wants to do over the longer term, and Friday might be the day that we figure it out.

• Gold markets have rallied rather significantly during the day, as we have gone back and forth during the trading session before shooting straight up in the air.
• That the market is likely to continue being driven by the bond markets, and whatever is happening with the yield in the United States.
• As yields fall, it makes gold much more attractive.

As we have rallied rather significantly from that point, the market is likely to continue to see the $1800 level as important, as it is not only a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it is also an area that has seen quite a bit of action in the past. The 50 Day EMA is in this area as well, so that makes quite a bit of sense that we would see a little bit of dynamic resistance here as well. Ultimately, this is a market that I think given enough time will have to decide what it wants to do over the longer term, and Friday might be the day that we figure it out.

While it is more likely than not that we will see a volatile session, the real question is going to be whether or not the Federal Reserve will have to remain extraordinarily tight with their monetary policy, and if we get a very strong jobs number, it’s possible that we could see the interest rates rise again in the United States, as it will almost certainly mean that the Federal Reserve will have to step on the gas when it comes to tightening. On the other hand, if we were to see a less strong job number, then the idea might be that the economy is slowing down and the Federal Reserve will have to abandon plans to tighten as quickly as they say they will.

It really doesn’t matter because the market will do whatever it wants to do. Looking at this general vicinity, I think it’s likely that we continue to see a lot of noise in the $1800 level, and therefore it will come down to where we close on Friday at the end of the day. This not only tells you what the reaction would be to the announcement but whether or not people are comfortable holding gold through the weekend.

Ready to trade today’s Gold forecast? Here are the best Gold brokers to choose from.

If the market suddenly takes off to the upside, it is likely that we would see a bigger continuation move, and I do think that things are lining up for that.

Gold markets have fallen initially during the trading session on Thursday but turned around to show signs of life again. By doing so, the market looks as if it is trying to overcome the 200 Day EMA, but it’s obvious that there is a lot of noise in this general vicinity. With that in mind, I think we will continue to see a lot of choppy behavior, and as we have had very little clarity, I would anticipate that we will continue to focus more on short-term charts than anything else.

Keep in mind that gold is highly sensitive to interest rates, so you need to pay attention to what’s going on in the bond market. As of late, interest rates have started to calm down a bit, and that helps gold become a bit more attractive. If interest rates truly start to sell off, then it’s likely that gold will be a rather major beneficiary. It is worth noting that the markets had been sold off quite viciously, so even though we have had a nice bounce, we probably have some work to do in order to change the overall trend. After all, the market does tend to be very choppy under the best of circumstances, and therefore I think you will continue to see a lot of short-term back-and-forth trading more than anything else.

If we were to break above the highest of the week, then I think it’s likely that we would go much higher. At that point, we would threaten the 50 Day EMA, and then eventually the $1900 level. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the lows of the last couple of days, we may pull back toward the $1825 level. Although a bearish move, it could be a simple continuation of base building in the market as there had been so much support right around the $1800 level.

The one thing that you can probably count on over the next several days is that things will be rather noisy, so you need to be very cautious with your position size. If the market suddenly takes off to the upside, I think it is likely that we would see a bigger continuation move, and I do think that things are lining up for that. However, it won’t necessarily be easy.

This is a market that I think will run out of momentum to the upside rather soon.

The Euro has rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday to reach the 50 Day EMA again. Initially, it looks like we would continue selling off, but we have turned around to show signs of strength later in the day. The market continues to pay close attention to interest rates in America, which are starting to drop a bid. That being said, we still have a long way to go before we change the overall trend.

The 50 Day EMA is an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to, and it has acted as significant resistance previously. If the market were to break above here, then it needs to deal with resistance almost right away at the 1.08 level. The 1.08 level is an area that previously had been supportive, and it now should be resistant. “Market memory” will be a major factor in this area, so I will be paying close attention to this region if we show signs of exhaustion. At that point, I am more than willing to short this market because there are far too many reasons to think that we could continue to see US dollar strength.

When you look at the chart, you can see just how bearish we have been, and therefore one would assume that it is only a matter of time before the sellers return. If we were to break down below the candlestick from Wednesday, that opens up a move down to the 1.06 level, an area that previously had been resistive. That being said, if we do pull back, I would not be surprised at all to see this market go reaching the bottom again. After all, trends happen for a reason, and therefore one would assume that it is only a matter of time before it resumes.

Pay close attention to the interest rates in America, because if they start to rise again, that more likely than not will send this pair lower. The ECB has recently suggested a 25 basis point hike is coming, but that pales in comparison to the 200 basis points of hikes expected out of the Federal Reserve. At this point, it’s been a nice rally but it’s no change in trend, at least not yet. That being said, this is a market that I think will run out of momentum to the upside rather soon.

What I believe a trader needs more than anything else is patience right now.

The euro rallied a bit on Tuesday to reach the 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is an area where a certain amount of technical interest will be paid, but at this point, I think the 1.08 level above is where the sellers will more likely than not reemerge. When you look at this chart, it’s easy to see that the 1.08 level was important more than once, so it does make sense that a certain amount of “market memory” comes into the picture. The 1.08 level was massive support more than once, and the scene of a big breakdown.

Underneath, the 1.04 level was where we had bounced from previously, so one would think that it will be a target given enough time. That being said, it’s obviously an area that people will pay close attention to, so if we were to break it down below there, it’s likely that the euro would go much lower. The rally has been a bit overdone, so it will be looking to fade the euro given enough time.

The European Central Bank is supposed to be on the path to raising interest rates by 25 basis points, but that is hardly comparable to what’s going on with the Federal Reserve. Because of this, it’s only a matter of time before we see that the interest rate differential will continue to bring downward pressure. Signs of exhaustion will be jumped upon from what I can see, and it’s not until we break above the 1.09 level that I would consider all of that being chewed through. Because of this, I think it’s only a matter of time, maybe in the next day or two, before we get a nice opportunity to shorten from a bigger move. That being said, if we were to break out of the upside, the euro has a long way to go before it changes the overall attitude of the market, so at this point, I think we need to see opportunities play out so that we can follow the longer-term trend. Signs of exhaustion continue to be what I wait for. I have not had one, so what I believe a trader needs more than anything else is patience right now. I plan on starting out slow, and then adding as a breakdown works out for me.

Expect noise, nothing more, nothing less.

Bitcoin has fallen a bit during the trading session on Monday to break below the $39,000 level initially. However, we did bounce ever so slightly at the end of the day. If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the Monday session, that is likely we go looking to reach the $37,500 handle. That is an area that has offered support multiple times, so it of course is important to pay close attention to.

If we were to break down below that level, then I think it is possible that we could go down to the $35,000 level, which breaking below there then opens up significant selling pressure and perhaps even the possibility of kicking off “crypto winter.” The market has been very noisy for quite some time, and therefore it is likely that we will continue to see a lot of choppy behavior.

Turning around opens up the possibility of an attempt on the 50 Day EMA, which is sitting at the $42,500 level. The market then has to deal with the $44,200 level, where the 200 Day EMA sits. Breaking through all of that could open up the possibility of a move higher, perhaps even trying to get back to the $50,000 level. The $50,000 level of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and I think would offer a bit of a “ceiling in the market.”

The only thing I think you can count on in the Bitcoin market is a lot of choppy volatility. After all, the market has been noisy for quite some time, and therefore I think we will continue to see more or less a sideways market, which shows a lot of indecision. The question now is whether or not the consolidation leads to continuation, or if it is a turnaround to show signs of strength.

Keep in mind that the Bitcoin market is highly sensitive to risk appetite due to the fact that Bitcoin is such a volatile asset. Until we get stability in some of the more traditional markets, it is difficult to imagine that the Bitcoin market will be able to find stability as well. The candlestick does suggest that we could go lower, but I also recognize that there is a lot of support just below that will come into the picture. Expect noise, nothing more, nothing less.

Will we reach the recent highs? I suspect it is very possible, but it may take some while to get there.

The gold markets rallied a bit on Tuesday as we gapped higher and then went to raise above the candlestick from the previous session. The Monday session had a massive shooting star, so that does suggest that there is a certain amount of resistance in the area that we reached midday. The fact that we pulled back from that area is not a huge surprise, so if we were to pull back from here, I think it is very likely that you should have plenty of buyers underneath to get involved and look for value.

I believe that the gold market is going to go higher over the longer term, and if we can get above the $1980 level, the next target will be the $2000 level after that. That is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will pay close attention to, and it would probably offer a bit of a value play every time we dip. Gold looks very healthy in the last couple of days seems to have suggested that we are trying to do everything we can to break out.

When you look at the chart, you can see that the 50-day EMA sits at the $1960 level, which is basically where the support is in the consolidation area we have been in. Going forward, I think that is going to act as a bit of a “floor” for the market. I see a lot of support that extends down to the $1900 level, possibly even out the $1880 level. The market breaking through all of that would of course be very negative, but I do not think it is going to happen very easily.

The market certainly looks as if it is going to continue to get very bullish, especially if we continue to worry about inflation and the overall economic slowdown. If that is going to continue to be a couple of things that people are concerned about, is very likely the gold will be important, and we need to look for value going forward and take advantage of it as it occurs. Will we reach the recent highs? I suspect it is very possible, but it may take some while to get there.