Looking at this chart, and looking at the history of Jerome Powell, I can almost guarantee that he will probably make things worse, not better. 

• The gold spot market rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, to reach above the $1760 level. The market is likely to continue seeing a lot of noise.
• Gold markets are waiting to see what happens on Friday morning, as Jerome Powell has a speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
• Traders are trying to figure out whether the Federal Reserve is going to reiterate its hawkish attitude, or if it is going to have to pivot. After all, there is somewhat mixed economic news out there, but at the end of the day, inflation is still a big deal.

The 50-Day EMA sits above and is offering a significant amount of resistance, so I think a lot of traders will be paying attention to that technical indicator. Above there, we have the $1800 level, which is where we had pulled back from previously, with the 200-Day EMA sitting above there. All of that could cause a significant amount of resistance, so do not be surprised at all to see a huge fight if we try to rally.

Traders Waiting for Jerome Powell’s Speech

Underneath, the $1720 level has offered short-term support, and I think a lot of people will be looking at that number with great interest. If we were to break it down below it, it’s possible that we could go down to the $1680 level. Anything below there opens a significant amount of potential selling pressure, and it’s possible that we could drop all the way down to the $1500 level. It’s going to be difficult to trade this market in the short term, because you are going to have to pay close attention to the bond markets and interest rates, or perhaps more specifically put, pay attention to how traders interpret whatever it is Jerome Powell says.

Looking at this chart, and looking at the history of Jerome Powell, I can almost guarantee that he will probably make things worse, not better. Clarity is not exactly his forte, so I anticipate that we have sloppy trading ahead of us. However, I do think that the support area underneath should be rather significant, so it’s going to take a lot to send the market through that floor. Another real possibility is that we are simply going to grind in this overall consolidating pattern.

Ready to trade our Gold price forecast? We’ve made a list of the best Gold brokers worth trading with.

The market will continue to be very noisy, and I still do not trust it enough to start buying it.

Avalanche rallied a bit during the day on Thursday, as we are above the $17 level again. Getting 7% sounds impressive, but at the end of the day, Avalanche has absolutely cratered, living up to its name over the last year or so. The market will continue to be very noisy, and I still do not trust this market enough to start buying it.

The 50 Day EMA is sitting at the $30 level and dropping, so therefore I think that is an indicator that you need to pay close attention to. This is an area that will be important, assuming that we can even get there. After all, Avalanche would have to almost double to threaten that area. Avalanche continues to look very weak, and it’s likely that we will continue to see downward pressure. Quite frankly, I do not think that we have seen the last of the selling, and you need to keep an eye on the bigger and more important crypto markets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, because as long as they struggle, smaller ones like Avalanche will most certainly do the same.

Now that we are entering into “crypto winter”, we need to start asking questions about ecosystems and whether or not they are going to exist in a few years. This is much like 1999 when a lot of technology stocks disappeared because they had not produced any type of profits. There was a point where people would buy anything with a “.com” attached to the name, and that is essentially what crypto has just seen. Because of this, people will in the future start to ask questions about whether or not the project is viable, or perhaps more importantly: whether developers are finding any real use for an ecosystem.

Unfortunately for crypto, there has been no real widescale adoption of it, although there may be in the future. That being said, it’s very likely that we will continue to see some of the weaker markets get flushed, perhaps even this one. The reality is that Avalanche is yet another market that may find itself disappearing, or perhaps thriving down the road. We need to see some “killer app” on the Avalanche platform for it to be viable. Otherwise, it’s a “cell on the rallies” type of situation.

Ultimately, the question now is whether or not we can go lower and break below the 3800 level?

The S&P 500 has initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Thursday but get back gain as we are starting to focus on the CPI numbers coming out on Friday. Ultimately, the CPI numbers will give us an idea as to what the Federal Reserve is about to do, and of course, tightening monetary policy is like kryptonite for Wall Street. After all, the last 13 or 14 years have all run on liquidity and nothing else.

We have pulled back from a major area of confluence, as the 50 Day EMA sits there, and it was the same area where we had seen previous support. This is now resistance, based upon “market memory.” Ultimately, this is a market that has been in a downtrend and I just do not see that changing anytime soon. Ultimately, this is a market that probably goes looking towards the bottom again, but we will have to wait and see whether or not we have enough momentum to actually break through. All things being equal, this is a market that has nothing positive about it, so therefore I think it’s only a matter of time before we see sellers push even harder.

On the other hand, if we were to turn around a break above the 50 Day EMA, then we will challenge the 4200 level. Above the 4200 level then opens up the possibility of challenging the 4300 level. That’s an area that has been massive resistance previously, and now the 200 Day EMA sits right there as well. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will be looking for signs of exhaustion to jump all over. Because of this, I am more than willing to fade any short-term rally at this point, especially if the CPI numbers come out hotter than anticipated.

If the CPI never misses horribly to the downside, that might be enough to get a bit of a relief rally going, but I just don’t see that being the case, and even if it does, I think it only offers us shorting opportunities at higher levels. Quite frankly, that would be my favorite trade setup, but I just don’t see it happening. Ultimately, the question now is whether or not we can go lower and break below the 3800 level?

It is probably only a matter of time before we see sellers coming back into the market to take advantage of “cheap US dollars.”

The Euro recovered quite nicely during the Thursday session, to break to the resistance barrier yet again. At this point, the market is killing time between now and the jobs number, when we will get the next major catalyst. Whether or not we can continue to go higher is a completely different question, and there is a lot of resistance above that I think could cause some major problems. With this being the case, I think it is probably only a matter of time before the market sells off, but I am cognizant of the fact that if we break above the 1.09 level, we will have cleared several major hurdles.

On the downside, the 1.06 level is a potential target, followed by the 1.04 level, where we had bounced from previously. This is a very noisy chart, but then again, most charts are noisy at the moment as we try to figure out what to do next. I think at this point we are looking at a scenario where traders are going to have to decide where they are going longer-term. Recently, we’ve heard some jawboning out of the ECB that perhaps they may try to tighten monetary policy, but at the end of the day it will be somewhat meaningless in comparison to what the Federal Reserve might be able to do.

Once the jobs numbers out of the way on Friday, we should have quite a bit more clarity in the way that the market may view the US dollar, and therefore we will be able to trade this market with a bit more clarity. There’s not much that makes me want to buy the Euro, and I do recognize that it’s been very noisy. This has been a nice bounce, but when you look at the history of the currency pair, it is nothing out of the ordinary. While we happen falling right along, the Euro has bounced quite a bit over multiple recoveries. I think it is probably only a matter of time before we see sellers coming back into the market to take advantage of “cheap US dollars.” That being said, pay close attention to how the market closes on Friday, because it could give you a bit of a heads up as to where the US dollar may go over the next couple of weeks.

Any opportunity to short this market on exhaustion will be taken.

The German index has gone back and forth during the bulk of the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of questions asked about the global economy. The futures markets dip down to the 13,500 level where you would anticipate a little bit of psychological support and then bounced back to finish the day somewhat unchanged. This does suggest that perhaps we are going to get a little bit of a rally, but that rally is not something I am necessarily looking to buy into.

The €13,750 level above is a bit of a barrier, just as it had previously been supported. The 50 Day EMA is above there and hanging right around the €14,173 level. It is drifting lower, and it has been dynamic resistance more than once. Because of this, I think that the first signs of exhaustion will more likely than not get sold into.

Keep in mind that there is a lot of concern about the global markets and global economies around the world so it is difficult to imagine a scenario where you want to jump in and start buying an index. That being said, we may get a little bit of a rally heading into the weekend for a simple short covering. It is not until we break above the 50 Day EMA and even the €14,500 level that I would be a buyer. After that, then the €15,000 level would be the next target. It is not until we break above there that I would be comfortable going long because I think there are far too many potential problems out there to derail any type of “risk-on rally” that we would see in any of the indices, let alone the DAX.

Keep in mind that the European Union has been showing less than attractive economic figures, and of course, as the world runs towards the US dollar for safety, it does make sense that we continue to see a lot of fear when it comes to the markets. Interest rates in Germany reflect serious concern about the overall outlook for the German economy, as well as the rest of the European Union. The DAX is full of major exporters, and therefore the destruction that we see globally is going to be felt in this market. Any opportunity to short this market on exhaustion will be taken.

Expect a lot of volatility, but there is really no way to buy this market anytime soon.

Monero has broken down rather significantly during the trading session on Thursday to reach all the way down to the $120 level. We have bounced from there, but quite frankly this is a market that has been negative for a reason, as Monero is pretty far out on the spectrum. Furthermore, as crypto is being shunned across the board, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where Monero suddenly is the Savior.

If we were to break down below the $120 level, then the market could collapse at that point, perhaps opening up a move down to the $100 level. The ferocity of the selloff does suggest that perhaps we are going to see a bit of a bounce, but I do not think it will last for any significant amount of time. In fact, I will be looking for some type of exhaustion after a bounce to get short again. The $150 level is perfect area to see this happen, so we will have to wait and see whether or not it actually gives us an exhaustion candle that we can take advantage of.

Even if we were to break above the $150 level, it is possible that we could go as high as the $175 level, which is the top of the Wednesday candlestick. The $180 level after that could offer significant resistance as well. It is not until we break above that level that I would be convinced that Monero is going to be going anywhere. Keep in mind that the US dollar is what the coin is quoted in, and the US dollar is like a wrecking ball at the moment. It is nowhere near rolling over, so therefore it is difficult to imagine most things being able to fight against the strength of the greenback, but there may be a little bit of profit-taking from short-sellers in markets like this.

Expect a lot of volatility, but there is really no way to buy this market anytime soon. I would be patient, and perhaps even wait until we get through the weekend to start shorting but it would take something miraculous to make this market something that I will be willing to buy. I know that some traders try to get cute with short-term charts and play the potential bounce. That is a recipe for disaster in a market like this.

On the upside, the target at this point would be to revisit the $200 level.

ZCash has fallen initially during the trading session on Thursday to reach the $159.50 level before turning around and forming a bit of a hammer. The hammer is preceded by a neutral candlestick, which was preceded by a pullback. At this point, the market looks as if it is trying to recover after a short-term pullback, which is especially interesting as we had broken higher for a couple of months. This pullback has been healthy, and it looks as if ZCash is ready to turn things around.

The 50 Day EMA and the 200 Day EMA both sit below and offer a certain amount of support. We had recently formed the so-called “golden cross”, which of course is something that longer-term traders will pay attention to for bullish pressure. This market looks as if it is trying to recover right along with the rest of crypto, as it has followed Bitcoin. Bitcoin leads the rest of them, and as Bitcoin is recovering, we have seen several altcoins follow right along, including this one.

If the risk appetite in markets continues to increase, it can help the idea of these smaller crypto markets rally. That being said, if we do get some type of major “risk-off” type of situation, then it is possible that the ZCash market will fall right along with the rest of them. If we break down below the moving averages below, then it would be a very negative turn of events and could open up the possibility of ZCash dropping to the $120 level.

On the upside, the target at this point would be to revisit the $200 level, an area that has a lot of psychological importance, and an area that has pushed ZCash back down from there, suggesting that perhaps the market will try to break through that resistance barrier. There is a shooting star that formed right at that level about two weeks ago, and if we can break above the top of that level, it is likely that the ZCash market will go looking to reach the $250 level. All things being equal, the only thing that will matter is that there is a lot of volatility, so you need to be very cautious about your position size, and then you need to pay attention to the overall attitude of crypto and the US dollar.

We may have a short-term blast higher just waiting to happen.

Ethereum has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Thursday but has found buyers by the end of the day to turn things around and form a bit of a hammer. By forming a hammer, this suggests that Ethereum is going to rally from here, perhaps trying to recapture the uptrend. Furthermore, the 50 Day EMA is reaching above the 200 Day EMA, forming a “golden cross.”

Looking at this chart, if we can break above the top of the hammer, one would anticipate that a move to the $3500 level would be possible. The $3500 level has been a significant resistance barrier recently, and it is of course a large, round, psychologically significant figure that will attract quite a bit of headline noise, and perhaps even institutional money. Breaking above that level then opens up the possibility of a move to the $4000 level, which has even more resistance built into it as that is where we had fallen from previously.

On the downside, if we were to break through the moving averages, that could have this market looking to take out the $3000 level underneath, which has been important multiple times. Giving that up would then open up a move down to the $2500 level which had been so significant in its support, as we had formed the “double bottom” at that level.

Keep in mind that Ethereum is also going through the process of validating the next move in blockchain technology, and as the merge continues, it is very bullish for Ethereum. As it works from proof of work to proof of stake, that will also add more users to the network, thereby driving up the value of a coin. More developers were jumping on to the Ethereum network these days, and that has been a bullish driver as well. As long as there is risk appetite out there, and an overall bullish sentiment when it comes to crypto, is very likely that Ethereum will do fairly well over the long term. This is not to say that there will be the occasional vicious pullback, but that is the nature of crypto in general.

In the short term, it looks like the buyers are trying to make a stand, so I am more bullish than bearish, and recognize that we may have a short-term blast higher just waiting to happen.