• The BTC/USD continues to go back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to hang around the $21,500 level.
• The market is likely to continue to see a bit of hesitation, and ironically enough, I think that cryptocurrency is waiting to see what central banks are going to do.

This is the exact opposite of what crypto is supposed to be doing because when everybody gets excited about Bitcoin, it was supposed to be a way to break away from central banks. However, the institutions have entered the marketplace, and therefore it does make quite a bit of sense that we will continue to see Bitcoin behave more like a traditional asset. Bitcoin is pretty far out on the wrist spectrum, so we need to see risk appetite rally in order to make a bigger move.

Market Likely to See Resistance

Looking at the start, I think it is worth noting that the 50 Day EMA is just above and dropping. In other words, the market is likely to see resistance above anyway. Furthermore, the $24,000 level is going to continue to be important, right along with the $25,000 level. If we can break above all of that, then we will test the next consolidation area that starts at the $28,000 level. If we can break above the 200-Day EMA, it is likely that we could continue to go much higher in a longer-term “buy-and-hold” type of situation.

The $20,000 level underneath being broken to the downside would open up the possibility of further selling, perhaps opening up a move down to the $12,000 level. The $12,000 level is where we started this bullish run to begin with, so I do think that there will be a lot of interest in buying Bitcoin in that region if we were to get down there. I would certainly be willing to jump in and start buying and building up a bigger position in that general vicinity. That being said, we are waiting to see what Jerome Powell says during the Jackson Hole symposium to give us a bit of a “heads up” as to what the Federal Reserve is going to do going forward. Quite frankly, Bitcoin needs to see monetary policy loosen up a bit to really get going to the upside.

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I think we have to be cautious about trying to get long, but I think short-term selling opportunities will continue to present themselves in the meantime. 

• The EUR/USD currency pair continues to trade in a tight range, as Friday saw more selling pressure.
• This was mainly in reaction to the jobs number in the United States coming out better than anticipated.
• The reaction was negative for the Euro as traders began to bet that the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten.
• This obviously is good for the US dollar, as the market will have to pay close attention to the interest rates and whether or not they continue to go higher.

Anticipating a Range Breakout

The 1.01 level underneath has offered quite a bit of support, while the 1.03 level above has offered resistance. I think that continues to be the situation here, as the market will continue to be very choppy. That being said, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see this market have to break out. If we were to break out of this range, that could give us a bit of a “heads up” as to where we’re going next. Breaking down below the bottom of this range opens up the possibility of a move down to the parity level, which has seen a lot of noise previously.

On the other hand, if we were to see the market break above the 1.03 level, then it’s possible that we could go to the 1.04 level, possibly even the 1.05 level. At this point, the market is likely to see a lot of selling pressure, but we need to have some type of catalyst to make the Euro suddenly spike. It seems very unlikely it’s going to happen anytime soon, so I think you should continue to see selling on short-term rallies, and at the first signs of exhaustion.

Sooner or later, we will have some type of bigger move, but right now it does not look like the pair is ready to do so. Regardless, we have been in a downtrend for quite some time so there’s no need to think that we are suddenly going to change. With this, I think we have to be cautious about trying to get long, but I think short-term selling opportunities will continue to present themselves in the meantime. Anything below the parity level on a daily close would be rather drastic for the Euro, sending the market much lower.

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The GBP/USD pair will likely remain in this range on Tuesday.

Bullish View

• Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2667.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2467.
• Timeline: 1 day.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 1.2490 and a take-profit at 1.2400.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2550.

The GBP/USD pair moved sideways as political temperatures rose. The pair is trading at 1.2540, which is slightly below last week’s high of 1.2660. The price is about 3% above its lowest level in May this year.

Boris Johnson Survives Impeachment

The GBP/USD pair had a mild reaction to the latest political crisis in the UK. On Monday, Boris Johnson survived his first impeachment process as anger of 2020s Downing Street parties continued.

The impeachment process moved into high gear after the proponents gained the 54 letters that were needed. However, they faced an uphill battle where they needed 180 votes for the impeachment to go on.

Now, with the impeachment process failed, it means that another vote will not happen for 12 months, which could give Johnson more clarity on how he runs the government. However, it also means that there will be more division among the ruling party members.

The GBP/USD pair will react mildly to the latest composite and services PMI numbers from the UK. these numbers are expected to show that output of the services sector was relatively strong last month as demand rose.

However, the main concern among most service providers like hotels and restaurants is that the cost of doing business has continued rising.

These numbers will come out a week ahead of the upcoming interest rate decision by the Bank of England (BOE). With inflation at elevated levels, there is a likelihood that the bank will hike rates for the fifth straight meeting.

The other important data to watch this week will be the upcoming US consumer inflation data. Analysts polled by Reuters expect that inflation in the US moderated slightly even as it remained close to its highest level in over 40 years.

GBP/USD Forecast

The GBP/USD pair rose to the key resistance level at 1.2667 last week. This was its highest level since April 26th. It also moved to the 25-period and 50-period moving averages while the MACD is slightly below the neutral point.

The pair is also along the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, the GBP/USD pair will likely remain in this range on Tuesday. The key support and resistance levels to watch will be at 1.2667 and 1.2450.

DOGE/USD has surged higher in early trading this morning, but before speculators look for huge percentage changes, they should note the consolidated range.

DOGE/USD has moved within sight of 14 and half cents in early trading this morning. Two days ago DOGE/USD was trading near a low of 13 and one/third cents. The move higher has been strong and fast, but it must be noted that the pace upwards took place in a rather consolidated framework. DOGE/USD for all of its ‘implied’ volatility has actually been rather tranquil when compared to its results of the past.

DOGE/USD does not seem to be the leader of the pack anymore regarding speculative interest from cryptocurrency traders. Once the darling of traders, Dogecoin can be argued to have been a leading barometer of sentiment within the digital asset world, but its status as the most appealing speculative cryptocurrency seems to have been replaced by the likes of Shiba Inu. Perhaps too, cryptocurrency has become more ‘mature’ and traders are leaning more towards digital assets with stated utilitarian reasons for existing.

However, whether or not DOGE/USD is now a proactive cryptocurrency which serves as a barometer of things to come in the broad cryptocurrency market, or if it is only a reactive cryptocurrency, Dogecoin remains a worthwhile speculative property. If DOGE/USD is merely reacting to the sentiment in the broad cryptocurrency market, its trading does represent what has been seen in the bigger trading sphere. Choppy conditions have been demonstrated in DOGE/USD and it reacted to lows on the 18th of April with a sudden burst upwards, mirroring many of the other major cryptocurrencies.

If DOGE/USD can muster enough support and hover near the 14 and half cents ratio, this may be taken as a positive sign by optimistic bulls. The consolidated range of DOGE/USD which has been seen quite a bit since the last week in March may prevail, but there is some evidence to suggest DOGE/USD could move higher and test resistance if the broad cryptocurrency remains stable and buying continues to be displayed without violent selloffs.

Caution as always with DOGE/USD should be practiced. While consolidated prices have been seen, there is always a chance a sudden spark could produce rapid changes in value in Dogecoin. Speculators who are willing to wager on upside momentum should pay attention to current support levels near 14 and a quarter cents, if this mark proves durable, buying DOGE/USD may make sense in the near term while looking for realistic targets slightly below 15 cents perhaps.

Dogecoin Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 0.14690000

Current Support: 0.14090000

High Target: 0.15400000

Low Target: 0.13320000