The market continues to be an oversold condition, but the longer we go sideways, the more viable another breakdown is.

The S&P 500 has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday to show signs of hesitation, and therefore it’s likely that the 3800 level is going to continue to offer short-term assistance. Quite frankly, the market looks as if it is trying to consolidate in this area, and therefore we may not get the massive relief rally that was possible. After all, we don’t necessarily need to balance, sometimes you can go sideways in order to work off excess fraud.

If that’s going to be the case, if the market were to break down below the 3650 level, then it’s likely that the market is much lower. In that scenario, the S&P 500 is more likely than not is going to go down to the 3500 level, as a futures market certainly looks very negative. However, it’s also just as possible that we turn around and show signs of life, and if we can break above the 3850 level, then the futures market may climb to the 4000 level.

The 4000 level is an area that not only is a large, round, psychologically significant figure but is also where the 50 Day EMA is racing toward right now. That would be a nice little rally and could get sellers coming back into the market. It’s difficult to see this as a market that should be rallying anytime soon because quite frankly the fundamentals are still very weak, and it’s likely that the monetary policy coming out of the Federal Reserve is going to continue to be tight as well. As long as monetary policy continues to be very tight, the idea is that we will see stock suffer as a result.

If the market were to break down below the 3600 level, I think that will bring in fresh selling, and therefore kick off more of a bearish move. On the other hand, it would be easier to short on signs of exhaustion after a rally, because it gives you more “runway” to work with. The market is not bullish until we break above the 4200 level, on the daily chart at the very least. If that were to happen, then obviously the momentum in the market would be to the upside. The market continues to be an oversold condition, but the longer we go sideways, the more viable another breakdown is.

This is yet another time that crypto has gotten hammered as we try to figure out exactly what function it will serve.

The Bitcoin market did almost nothing on Tuesday as we continue to look at the $30,000 level as difficult to overcome with any type of confidence. Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market continue to struggle at the hands of risk appetite. You could also make a bit of an argument that we are forming a descending triangle, which is also a very bearish sign.

It’s worth noting that the hammer from last week suggests that there is a certain amount of support underneath, and a lot of interest will be had near the $25,000 level. That being said, the $25,000 level will more than likely get broken through, due to the fact that it was a minor area of interest in the past. Breaking through there allows Bitcoin to go looking toward the $20,000 level underneath, which had previously been both support and resistance. The $20,000 level could be an area where you would see value hunters coming back, but at this point anything is possible.

When you look at the chart, rallies could happen, but there are plenty of areas above that could cause problems. The 50-day EMA sits near the $35,000 level, and I believe that it is only a matter of time before sellers will jump in. In fact, the market will more likely than not continue to see resistance above there all the way to the $40,000 level. Either way, I have no interest in buying Bitcoin anytime soon, because the risk appetite simply does not allow it.

The downward trajectory has been brutal, but at this point, I think it is only a matter of time before it continues. The action over the last couple of weeks has simply been the market trying to work off some of the fraud from the downward momentum, but as the US dollar continues to strengthen and central banks around the world continue to look at tightening monetary policy, it is obvious that Bitcoin is not an inflationary hedge. In fact, it seems to be very highly correlated with the NASDAQ. In other words, it needs more of a “risk-on environment” to pick up a bit of a bid. This is yet another time that crypto has gotten hammered as we try to figure out exactly what function it will serve.

The price of gold extended its longest stretch of its weekly losses this year as investors look to higher Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar ahead of a flurry of inflation numbers expected from major economies in the coming days. At the beginning of this week’s trading, the price of gold fell to the level of 1852 dollars an ounce, losing about 30 dollars from the price of an ounce. It settled around this level at the beginning of trading today, Tuesday, waiting for factors to rebound higher or continue to correct towards the psychological support of 1800 dollars an ounce.

The price of the yellow metal is retreating from a weekly gain of 0.3%, bringing its year-to-date gains to around 2%. As for the price of silver, the sister commodity to gold, it trimmed some of its losses. Silver futures for June fell to $22.12 an ounce. The price of the white metal fell by 2.47% last week, which increased its decline since the beginning of the year 2022 to date by more than 5%.

Bullion prices have fallen since mid-April as the US Federal Reserve and other global central banks tighten policy to fight rising consumer prices. Monetary pressure has pushed yields on US government bonds above 3% and fueled the dollar for five weeks of gains, making gold less attractive.

There could be more volatility in the bond market as a slew of inflation data feeds the discussion about price pressures and monetary policy. US consumer prices will be released on Wednesday, with China, India, Mexico, and Brazil all reporting during the same week.

Investors also digested trade data from China on Monday that showed the damage from the Covid-19 shutdown in the world’s second-largest economy. The country’s exports and imports struggled in April as a worsening virus outbreak slashed demand, undermined production, and disrupted logistics. Commenting on this, Ravindra Rao, Head of Commodity Research at Kotak Securities Ltd. The downside is limited by rising concerns regarding China, inflationary concerns, and tensions over Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Has inflation peaked? Goldman Sachs believes, as chief economist Jan Hatzius has written, that multiple signs point to a deceleration in key inflation measures. “For the first time since price hikes began in early 2021, we revised our baseline forecast for the end of 2022 to reduce personal consumption expenditures,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote to clients. We are now more confident that both core and core inflation have peaked on an annual basis.”

This can create an intriguing atmosphere for gold. On the other hand, slowing inflation will not look attractive to safe haven assets like gold. Slowing inflation may force the Fed to be less aggressive, allowing the central bank to remain accommodative compared to other periods historically.

In other metals markets, copper futures fell to $4.172 a pound. Platinum futures fell to $933.80 an ounce. Futures contracts for palladium fell to 2021.50 dollars an ounce.

According to the technical analysis of gold: On the daily chart below, it seems clear that the price of gold is moving freely within a bearish channel. Breaking the support of $1835 an ounce is important for a stronger control of the bears, because with it the opportunity to move will increase to break the psychological support of $1800 an ounce. Despite that, I still prefer buying gold from every descending level. Global geopolitical tensions, the impact of a new outbreak of the epidemic, and the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war are factors that support the gold market, which is facing a wave of interest rate hikes by global central banks led by the United States.

On the upside, the resistance levels are 1878 and 1900 dollars for the return of the bulls’ stronger control over the gold market.

Gold futures are struggling to stay in positive territory despite a stronger US dollar and higher Treasury yields. Despite swinging back and forth, gold prices are still on track to post tepid weekly gains. With the possibility of US inflation rising to 8% this next week, and the continuing war in Ukraine, the price of gold tested the level of $ 1950 an ounce today, and last week gold prices recorded a weekly gain of 0.4%, in addition to its 2022 annual gain to date, which is close to 6%.

As for the price of silver, the sister commodity of gold, it is trying to stay above $24.50. Overall, the price of the white metal fell about 0.7% last week, but it is still up more than 5% so far this year. In the end, gold has been trading relatively neutrally lately, despite the huge volatility across the global financial markets.

Commenting on the performance of the gold market, Craig Erlam, chief market analyst at Oanda, said in a research note, “Gold is trading around the same level it was yesterday, the day before that, the day before that, and so on, despite a sharp rise in volatility in places around the world. This is another result of the Fed’s hawkish shift, as gold was not affected. “We continue to see a consolidation in the price of the yellow metal, with the daily ranges tightening rather than widening as I expected,” the analyst added. “There are multiple forces at play here, but traders seem to be sticking with the traditional safe-haven inflation hedge.”

Last week, the minutes of last month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting revealed that the Federal Reserve is preparing to be more aggressive in tightening monetary policy. The central bank plans to raise US interest rates beyond 25 basis points and shrink the balance sheet by $95 billion per month. Concerns are also rising about the strength of the economy. With the Federal Reserve poised to aggressively raise interest rates, the fear is that it will hit the brakes too hard or too quickly and push the US economy into recession. While that’s not the consensus on Wall Street, Deutsche Bank economists earlier said they expect a recession in the US by late next year.

The war in Ukraine has made matters even more uncertain by threatening to exacerbate inflation and damage the global economy. Oil, gas, and food prices have been particularly volatile since Russia invaded the country.

The price of gold is usually sensitive in a price environment because it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-return bullion.

The US dollar has seen a great performance over the past few days. The US dollar index (DXY), a measure of the performance of the US dollar against a basket of other major currencies, rose to 100.05, and accordingly the US dollar recorded a weekly rise of about 1.4%, which raises its rise since the start of the year 2022 to date to more than 4%. In general, a stronger profit is bad for dollar-denominated commodities because it makes them more expensive to buy for foreign investors.

Relative to the prices of other metals, copper futures rose to $4.73 a pound. Palladium futures rose to $2,410.50 an ounce. Platinum futures rose to $968.10 an ounce.

According to the technical analysis of gold: Every time that the price of gold tries to rise strongly, taking advantage of the continuation of global geopolitical tensions, it collides with the strength of the US dollar. This time the price of gold rose to the level of 1950 dollars an ounce, and we recommended last week to sell gold from that top with a target of support 1900 dollars for an ounce. It seems, according to the performance on the daily chart, that the price of gold may experience a price explosion in one of the two directions due to moving in narrow ranges for a long time recently.

According to the performance on the daily chart, the $1880 support will remain an important psychological point for a stronger and continuous control of the bears on the trend. At the same time, I still prefer buying gold from every descending level. On the other hand, bulls’ attempt to break the resistance of 1975 dollars over the same time period will support expectations of the near test of the historical psychological peak of 2000 dollars an ounce.