Bitcoin is gently selling off on deteriorating risk sentiment.

Previous BTC/USD Signal

My previous signal on 8^th August was not triggered as there was no bullish price action when the support levels which I had identified were first reached that day.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $23,028 $22,713, or $21,449.
• Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $23,609 or $24,466.
• Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous analysis on 8^th August that the price of BTC/USD was continuing to rise gently and be held by a wide bullish price channel.

I thought that the support level I identified at $23,585 would likely be pivotal over the day.

These were good calls, as once the price broke below $23,585 it continued to fall by a considerable distance. Ten days later, the price is still trading within the same gently rising price channel but has sold off since reaching the big round number at $25k.

The selloff in Bitcoin is probably getting some tailwind from, the recovery by the US Dollar and the decline in risk sentiment following the release yesterday of FOMC meeting minutes.

The resistance level at $23,609 looks attractive for a short trade as its clearly become “stairstep” resistance so will probably be likely to hold if reached. I would want to see a rejection of the level from below and a clear bearish reversal before entering. I would be comfortable trading short today despite the rising price channel.

If the price reaches the support level at $22,713 that could be significant as it is close to the bottom of the price channel, so there is scope to hope for a medium to long-term bullish price movement beginning from a firm bullish bounce there.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart?symbol=COINBASE%3ABTCUSD

Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 1:30pm London time.

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The USD/ZAR is trading politely within a rather intriguing five day range and resistance up above could prove a useful strategy for wagers.

The USD/ZAR moved higher yesterday and has seen its value consolidate over the past handful of hours. As of this writing the USD/ZAR currency pair is near the 16.42000 ratio with the typical amount of give and take within its traded value. Intriguingly the USD/ZAR hit the 16.46350 ratio earlier this morning and this resistance level held and pushed the Forex pair a bit lower.  This mark was tested a bit yesterday, but before that the last time the value was hit was on the 10^th of August.

Technical Range of USD/ZAR could prove Enticing for Short Term Speculators

On the 10^th of August the USD/ZAR did manage to hit the 16.63000 mark before reversing lower. Later on the 10^th of August the USD/ZAR suddenly found itself trading near the 16.11000 mark, which it went on to test essentially on the 11^th and 12^th again. The climb higher yesterday was incremental, but the fact that a strong retest of the lows from last week has not happened is interesting.  Short term speculators may find technical charts attractive if they believe the USD/ZAR is traversing too high.

Quick Hitting Targeted Trading for those who use Risk Taking Tactics Astutely in the USD/ZAR

Resistance above near the 16.50000 region may prove to be an interesting target.  Depending on the trading strategy, this level could be used as a potential stop loss for those who think the USD/ZAR will start to trade lower. Or it could prove a rather distant take profit goal for those who believe the USD/ZAR is capable of trading higher, but will then run out of steam.

• Range trading should be expected in the near term. Resistance levels of 16.51000 to 16.60000 may prove to be worthwhile targets to be used for traders wanting to wager.
• If a new round of selling breaks out in the USD/ZAR it would not be a surprise to see the 16.37000 mark become vulnerable and a potential move lower to the 16.28000 ratio.

Short term traders may have a rather comfortable window to trade near term.  While economic data could certainly shake the global market with a lightning strike regarding news, it also may stay relatively quiet for the USD/ZAR this week. This trading range may be able to be taken advantage of by selling near perceived resistance, for quick hitting short term wagers which use take profit orders effectively.

USD/ZAR Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 16.44900

Current Support: 16.38600

High Target: 16.52100

Low Target: 16.27700

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The USD/ZAR is trading near short term lows as of this writing and speculators need to take a couple of important potential factors into consideration.

The USD/ZAR currency pair is trading near the 1.61100 mark as of this writing, which is near rather intriguing lows. Speculators need to be careful today, because it is a public holiday in South Africa and trading volumes may be lighter than normal. This morning’s early price action did see the USD/ZAR currency pair drop to a depth of nearly 16.57500, which tested support levels seen on Friday before a spike higher was accomplished.

Public Holiday and Perception of a Potentially Oversold USD/ZAR Could be Dangerous

The lack of extensive transactions coming from South Africa today leaves the USD/ZAR open to the possibility of sudden moves today. And when combined with the technical perception the USD/ZAR may have been oversold yesterday and has consolidated near Friday’s support levels is intriguing. However, traders should be careful today, because while the USD/ZAR has the potential of a consolidated Forex market, the currency pair is vulnerable to value gyrations in a lightly traded atmosphere which could be whipsaw like.

Support near the 16.60000 area could prove to be interesting if sustained

Traders should use entry price orders to make sure they are not filled at a surprising ratio which is completely unexpected today.  Speculators should also be aware that a jump from 16.60100 to 16.63000 in a moment’s notice today should be expected, meaning that stop losses and take profit orders should be working, but that fast results could occur and knock traders out of positions with a blink of the eye. However, importantly what traders should also note is that today’s price action may raise false trending flags due to low volume, also meaning tomorrow’s opening for the USD/ZAR could produce fireworks if a move is overdone today and financial houses ‘correct’ the trend.

• Quick range trading may be seen today in the USD/ZAR with light volume; traders should monitor the 16.60000 to 16.64000 ratios.
• If the price range of short term technical support and resistance are broken today, traders need to be prepared for volatility tomorrow when full market action returns to the USD/ZAR.

Ambitious speculators who believe the USD/ZAR has been oversold the past day and that support levels will produce upwards mobility cannot be blamed.  However, because of today’s light trading volume a test of the ‘known’ range may be demonstrated. If a trader wants to buy the USD/ZAR and anticipate a potentially bigger move, they may have to practice patience or be willing to carry a position overnight.

USD/ZAR Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 16.64250

Current Support: 16.59200

High Target: 16.67800

Low Target: 16.55700

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The USD/BRL will begin trading today near mid-term highs and speculators may feel enticed to wager on direction, but they should be careful.

When the USD/BRL begins to trade today it may experience a spike which is often the case with the currency pair.  Upon the return of U.S financial institutions today from their long holiday weekend, fuller trading volumes will certainly be experienced, and this could alter the behavioral sentiment which has been seen in the USD/BRL the last two trading days momentarily.  

The USD/BRL has been consistently moving higher since late May. The heights reached by the USD/BRL the past two days of trading are testing values not seen since early February of this year. It should be noted on the 4^th of February the USD/BRL tested the 5.35000 juncture briefly.

The USD/BRL provides speculators with rather consistent trends, but they often prove to be volatile particularly when the Forex market is opening for trading. Spikes up and down are commonplace, and traders who are brave enough to hold positions of the USD/BRL overnight must be prepared for rather swift moves during the early hours of trading days.

Today’s conditions are likely going to prove rather volatile as increased transactions are delivered into the USD/BRL. The past two days of trading have seen new highs and the question is if there will be a slight selling correction this morning, or if the incremental steps higher will continue to flourish.

If the USD/BRL breaks above the 5.33000 level with relative ease this morning and sustains prices above in the ensuing hours it could point to additional higher values to come.  Traders who can use take profit ratios near resistance levels they perceive as durable may want to cash out of winning positions if they materialize.

The potential for a slight countermove lower early this morning, or later during the day when the USD/BRL is experiencing full volume should be anticipated. Traders who want to look for lower moves from the current heights of the USD/BRL should keep their targets realistic and not become overly ambitious. Support levels near the 5.31750 mark should be watched, choppy conditions were seen yesterday and a low of about 5.28690 was seen briefly.

Traders need to be prepared for rather fast trading in the early hours of the USD/BRL today. However, after the dusts settles and volatility eases, speculators may believe that wagers on incremental upside potential based on the mid-term bullish trend with quick hitting take profit orders may be worthwhile.

Brazilian Real Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance:  5.3311

Current Support:  5.3147

High Target: 5.3399

Low Target:  5.2955

The record bullish breakouts of the USD/JPY currency pair do not stop, and reached the resistance level of 136.72, the highest for the currency pair in 24 years. The Japanese officials’ failure to intervene despite the recent and continuing collapse of the Japanese yen price gives the currency pair the impetus for more upward movement. The price of the dollar / yen is stable at the level of 135.20 at the time of writing the analysis. Yesterday, US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell said in the text of his semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. The central bank will continue to raise US interest rates to tame inflation after its highest rise in nearly three decades, although policymakers must be “agile” as various shocks hit the world’s largest economy.

“We expect continued increases in interest rates to be appropriate,” he added. “It is clear that inflation has surprised the upward trend over the past year, and there could be more surprises in store. So we will need to be smart in responding to incoming data and evolving forecasts.”

Powell’s largely prepared remarks echoed comments at a news conference last week after he and his FOMC colleagues raised the benchmark lending rate by 75 basis points – the largest increase since 1994 – to the 1.5% to 1.75% range. While Powell told reporters last week that another 75 basis point increase, or a 50 basis point move, was on the table for the next meeting in late July, yesterday’s text did not indicate the size of a future rate hike. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Saturday that he would support a 75 basis point interest rate increase in July if economic data came out as expected.

“We understand the difficulties that high inflation creates,” Powell added in his testimony. And “we are deeply committed to bringing inflation back down, and we are moving quickly to do so.”

Economically: The US Consumer Price Index rose 8.6% last month compared to a year earlier, the highest level in four decades. Recently, the rising cost of living angered Americans and hurt the standing of US President Joe Biden Democrats with voters ahead of the mid-term congressional elections in November. Fed officials have admitted that they have been too slow to tighten and are now trying to increase the front-loading rate on the most aggressive policy axes in decades. While a recession is not in the Fed’s forecast, economists are increasingly raising the bar for an economic downturn sometime in the next two years.

In this regard, former New York Fed President Bill Dudley said in a Bloomberg opinion column on Wednesday that a recession is “inevitable” within the next 12 to 18 months. The risk of a significant increase in the unemployment rate exceeds 50% over the next four quarters, Fed economist Michael Kelly said in a paper on Tuesday, based on simulations that include inflation, unemployment data and corporate and Treasury yields.

“The US economy is very strong and well-positioned to deal with a tighter monetary policy,” Powell added.

USD/JPY analysis:

There is no change in my technical view of the price performance of the USD/JPY currency pair. The general trend is still bullish, bearing in mind that the recent gains are sufficient to push the technical indicators towards overbought levels. However, the currency pair’s gains factors continue and warn of a strong bullish move in the coming days. It is headed to move towards the standard psychological resistance level of 140.00, which is the level that officials in Japan have indicated that they may move to intervene if the currency pair reaches it. On the downside and according to the performance on the daily chart, there will be no actual reversal of the trend without breaking the 130.00 support level, otherwise the bulls will continue to dominate.

DOGE/USD remains within the lower elements of its long-term trading range, and its slight fluctuations in value can produce big betting results for gamblers.

DOGE/USD has no utilitarian necessity in the cryptocurrency world, except it acts as an excellent way to gauge sentiment among speculators and as a betting device.  Trading volumes have dropped substantially in Dogecoin, and this is an important signal that a large amount of bettors who have been drawn to DOGE/USD in the past may not have the extra cash needed anymore to wager on its results.

DOGE/USD has been trading under the 10 cents mark since the 11^th of May, and there are few signals which suggest Dogecoin is suddenly going to burst higher and climb above this mark in the short term.  As of this writing DOGE/USD is trading slightly below the 8 and a half cent mark.  Dogecoin is traversing prices that it has not sincerely traded since the first week of April in 2021.

If Dogecoin were to sink lower and move to the remarkable price of six cents it would then be trading values seen in March of 2021. Intriguingly, DOGE/USD has not hit values which were demonstrated before its exuberant rampage higher started in December of 2020 and January 2021, this when DOGE/USD was trading for essentially less than a cent.

On the 26^th of May, DOGE/USD did hit the 7 and half cent mark before exhibiting a reversal higher which than managed to very briefly hit the 9 cents level on the 27^th.  Technically interesting is that during the flourish higher a few days ago, DOGE/USD witnessed a sincere amount of trading near the 8 and half cents mark which has become resistance.  

Speculators who believe upside momentum can be attained should keep their goals realistic and perhaps not aim for massive moves higher. The use of take profit orders to cash out sudden winnings if they emerge is highly recommended. Fractional moves in DOGE/USD can produce massive results depending on the amount of leverage used, these results can be costly too if the market goes against the speculator’s chosen direction. Looking for values above 9 cents for the moment may be unrealistic.

The broad cryptocurrency market remains in a bearish long term trend, and betting against this downward momentum can prove dangerous. Speculators looking for headwinds to continue and who wager on further declines cannot be blamed. If the 8 and half cents mark for DOGE/USD cannot be toppled and sustained, there is reason to suspect the 8 cents level could become a target and possibly vulnerable near term.

Dogecoin Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.08690000

Current Support: 0.08270000

High Target: 0.08880000

Low Target: 0.07860000

SOL/USD has produced choppy trading the past couple of days, and since the 2^nd of April has produced a bearish trend.

After hitting a high of nearly 143.4000 on the 2^nd of April, which tested highs not seen since the 20^th of January, SOL/USD has taken on a rather stark bearish trend. Technical traders will certainly have their perceptions tested in the short term with Solana. The ability to hit important resistance levels in early April, and then be pushed backwards with a rather stark amount of violence likely has had an effect on speculative bulls.

As of this writing, SOL/USD is near the 106.6000 mark in fast conditions. A low of nearly 98.2000 was produced on the 11^th of April and some reversals higher have been witnessed. Incrementally SOL/USD has also seen short term support levels rise. The question is if the current three day move higher can be sustained, or if it will prove to be a ‘dead cat’ bounce. The long term bearish trend of SOL/USD seemed likely to be proclaimed over in early April, but the resurgence of downward motion cannot be discounted and nervous fears may be building again.

Lows seen only a few days ago tested important support levels which did seem to hold via pricing comparisons of late March.  The current value range of SOL/USD will need to prove strong in order to attract additional buying waves, beyond the scope of mere day traders looking to capture quick hitting moves higher. The broad cryptocurrency market appears to be awash in nervous sentiment and if current support levels among Solana counterparts start to look vulnerable, this could be a poor signal for SOL/USD too.

Buying of SOL/USD certainly moved in step with the broad cryptocurrency market during its positive run from the middle of March until early April. However, the price action downward in SOL/USD has actually been more violent compared to the likes of Ethereum and Bitcoin when percentage changes to value are gauged. SOL/USD lost more than 40% of its value from early April until lows were hit on the 11^th.

If current support levels prove durable and values near the 107.0000 to 106.0000 ratios can hold back the negative tide recently displayed, this may allow speculators to believe upside potential lurks.  However before conservative traders step into SOL/USD with buying wagers, they may want to see some consolidation over the next day or so. Looking for upside when support is approached may prove to be worthwhile, but for the moment traders may want to keep their price ambitions when looking for upside action rather tame and their stop loss orders working.

Solana Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 107.8700

Current Support: 105.2200

High Target: 110.3500

Low Target: 96.1000