• The BTC/USD continues to go back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to hang around the $21,500 level.
• The market is likely to continue to see a bit of hesitation, and ironically enough, I think that cryptocurrency is waiting to see what central banks are going to do.

This is the exact opposite of what crypto is supposed to be doing because when everybody gets excited about Bitcoin, it was supposed to be a way to break away from central banks. However, the institutions have entered the marketplace, and therefore it does make quite a bit of sense that we will continue to see Bitcoin behave more like a traditional asset. Bitcoin is pretty far out on the wrist spectrum, so we need to see risk appetite rally in order to make a bigger move.

Market Likely to See Resistance

Looking at the start, I think it is worth noting that the 50 Day EMA is just above and dropping. In other words, the market is likely to see resistance above anyway. Furthermore, the $24,000 level is going to continue to be important, right along with the $25,000 level. If we can break above all of that, then we will test the next consolidation area that starts at the $28,000 level. If we can break above the 200-Day EMA, it is likely that we could continue to go much higher in a longer-term “buy-and-hold” type of situation.

The $20,000 level underneath being broken to the downside would open up the possibility of further selling, perhaps opening up a move down to the $12,000 level. The $12,000 level is where we started this bullish run to begin with, so I do think that there will be a lot of interest in buying Bitcoin in that region if we were to get down there. I would certainly be willing to jump in and start buying and building up a bigger position in that general vicinity. That being said, we are waiting to see what Jerome Powell says during the Jackson Hole symposium to give us a bit of a “heads up” as to what the Federal Reserve is going to do going forward. Quite frankly, Bitcoin needs to see monetary policy loosen up a bit to really get going to the upside.

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The USD/JPY has reversed from highs achieved a couple of days ago, but remains stubbornly perched within the loftier part of its long term range.

The USD/JPY is trading near the 1.36700 vicinity as of this writing.  On the 23^rd of August the USD/JPY currency pair managed to attain a high of nearly 1.37700 and this wasn’t a momentary spike. From the 19^th until yesterday the USD/JPY has managed to consistently trade above the 1.37000 level with rapid fire price action. In early trading this morning the USD/JPY has moved slightly lower, but this bearish trend may prove short lived.

The USD/JPY Continues to Demonstrate a Bullish Price Range

The USD/JPY will remain speculative and traders need to be careful.  Experienced traders however already know that. The trick to the puzzle is understanding the USD/JPY has been consistently testing its upper range and strong reversals lower have not proven durable as of yet.

Fundamental economic data and actions via central banks like the BoJ and Fed continue to prove rather unimpressive. Growth challenges, inflation and interest rate policies remain hot topics of debate with no clear answers to resolve matters.

The 1.37000 looms over the USD/JPY with a very evident psychological threshold. The ability to break below this juncture this morning is noteworthy, but from a risk reward perspective via trading does downside ability look more attractive than potential upside movement in the near term? A retest of the 1.37000 level in the short term might prove to be a significant buying signal for quick hitting momentum trades with realistic targets.

Some Traders Believe the USD/JPY is overbought, is this Viewpoint Wrong?

Conservative speculators should be cautious considering the amount of nervous sentiment in the USD/JPY and the amount of data and news events which will unfold the next two days. However traders who are seeking wagering opportunities may view the coming storm as a chance to dive in and test their perspectives.

If current support levels near the 1.36600 to 1.36550 ratios hold water, this may prove to be place to ignite buying positions which seek higher ground.  Trading conditions will prove to be fast the remainder of the week and risk management is essential. The incremental climb upwards in the USD/JPY may not be finished yet.

USD/JPY Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 136.850

Current Support: 136.490

High Target: 137.510

Low Target: 136.080

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I think we have to be cautious about trying to get long, but I think short-term selling opportunities will continue to present themselves in the meantime. 

• The EUR/USD currency pair continues to trade in a tight range, as Friday saw more selling pressure.
• This was mainly in reaction to the jobs number in the United States coming out better than anticipated.
• The reaction was negative for the Euro as traders began to bet that the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten.
• This obviously is good for the US dollar, as the market will have to pay close attention to the interest rates and whether or not they continue to go higher.

Anticipating a Range Breakout

The 1.01 level underneath has offered quite a bit of support, while the 1.03 level above has offered resistance. I think that continues to be the situation here, as the market will continue to be very choppy. That being said, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see this market have to break out. If we were to break out of this range, that could give us a bit of a “heads up” as to where we’re going next. Breaking down below the bottom of this range opens up the possibility of a move down to the parity level, which has seen a lot of noise previously.

On the other hand, if we were to see the market break above the 1.03 level, then it’s possible that we could go to the 1.04 level, possibly even the 1.05 level. At this point, the market is likely to see a lot of selling pressure, but we need to have some type of catalyst to make the Euro suddenly spike. It seems very unlikely it’s going to happen anytime soon, so I think you should continue to see selling on short-term rallies, and at the first signs of exhaustion.

Sooner or later, we will have some type of bigger move, but right now it does not look like the pair is ready to do so. Regardless, we have been in a downtrend for quite some time so there’s no need to think that we are suddenly going to change. With this, I think we have to be cautious about trying to get long, but I think short-term selling opportunities will continue to present themselves in the meantime. Anything below the parity level on a daily close would be rather drastic for the Euro, sending the market much lower.

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Perhaps the gold market is trying to figure out and price in a stronger greenback.

Gold markets initially tried to rally on Thursday but gave up gains to show signs of hesitation. Ultimately, this is a market that I think has to make a bigger decision, with the $1800 level underneath offering a massive support level. It’s worth noting that the $1800 level has been the scene of a “double bottom,” and therefore we need to see what happens in the general vicinity because if it was to be broken down below, that could be a very negative turn of events.

In fact, if we do drift lower and break down below the $1800 level, then it’s likely that the market could go to the $1750 level, maybe even the $1700 level. That obviously would probably coincide with a strengthening US dollar, and of course interest rates rising again. That being said, we have to pay close attention to whether or not that correlation still exists, because it does fluctuate quite drastically.

The 200 Day EMA is sitting just above the $1850 level, and just below the 50 Day EMA. Both of the moving averages are relatively flat, so I think this is a market that is going to stay range-bound for a while. The top of the range is at the $1880 level, and therefore I think if we were to break above that level, then obviously would be very bullish for gold, opening up the possibility of a move to the $1920 level, and then eventually the $2000 level. That being said, it is going to take quite a bit of momentum to make that happen, so I think at this point we are simply looking at a market that is going back and forth and trying to figure out where we are going to go for the bigger move. I think that will probably be the main theme in the meantime, but it is worth noting that the most recent high was lower than the ones before it.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that we are going to break down, but it does suggest that there is quite a bit of negativity lurking in the shadows. If the US dollar continues to strengthen the way it has, it will obviously be negative for the gold market as well. Perhaps the gold market is trying to figure out and price in a stronger greenback.