Trend – xMetaMarkets.com / Online Innovative Trading Facility Wed, 24 Aug 2022 17:51:55 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.1 /wp-content/uploads/2022/07/cropped-Logo-menu-32x32.png Trend – xMetaMarkets.com / 32 32 Bearish Trend Line and Strong Resistan /2022/08/24/bearish-trend-line-and-strong-resistan/ /2022/08/24/bearish-trend-line-and-strong-resistan/#respond Wed, 24 Aug 2022 17:51:55 +0000 /2022/08/24/bearish-trend-line-and-strong-resistan/ [ad_1]

Price likely to remain bearish below $1.1868.

My previous GBP/USD signal on 16th August could have produced a slightly profitable short trade from the bearish rejection of the resistance level which I had identified at $1.2100 if the trade had been closed out at the end of the day’s London session.

Today’s GBP/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades must be taken before 5pm London time Thursday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1791 or $1.1695.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1791, $1.1864, or $1.1878.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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GBP/USD Analysis

I wrote in my last forecast on 16th August that the downwards price movement looked most likely to continue, as we saw a bearish technical situation with the price selling off within descending bearish wedge chart patterns. I thought that a bearish reversal from $1.2100 could be a good short trade opportunity.

This was partially correct – although the level at $1.2100 initially held it was broken later, but the price fell early the next day and is now trading considerably lower.

We saw the GBP/USD currency pair reach its lowest price since the coronavirus panic of March 2020 yesterday, not far above $1.1700, before the price rebounded strongly during the New York session later. However, the key resistance levels at $1.1864 and $1.1878 held, and the price was pushed back down. We also have a medium-term bearish trend line, which is shown within the price chart below, which is helping to suppress the price.

There is a long-term bearish trend, with good fundamental reasons for the strength of the US Dollar (a Fed that is talking about getting tighter with its monetary policy) and the weakness of the British Pound (inflation above 10% and the Bank of England forecasting a five-quarter recession).

I look to trade this pair short, and I see the area from $1.1878 down to the bearish trend line as a good zone in which to enter a short trade after a bearish reversal in price action. In fact, the price can now be contained within a bearish price channel which I have completed in the chart with the lower descending trend line.

If the price does not retrace to that zone but just falls, scalpers might try to be brave and capture a few long pips from a bullish bounce at $1.1791 or $1.1750 below that. The latter is not a key support level, but it does look like the price is taking note of it and reacting when it gets there.

GBP/USD

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either the GBP or the USD.

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Incremental Climb via Bullish Trend Remains Steady /2022/08/24/incremental-climb-via-bullish-trend-remains-steady/ /2022/08/24/incremental-climb-via-bullish-trend-remains-steady/#respond Wed, 24 Aug 2022 02:01:20 +0000 /2022/08/24/incremental-climb-via-bullish-trend-remains-steady/ [ad_1]

The USD/INR has been able to sustain the higher values it established in the middle of last week and speculators will continue to be tested.

The Indian Rupee continues to lose ground to the USD in Forex and as of this morning a value of 79.8700 is being demonstrated.  Speculative conditions are ripe within the USD/INR currency pair as higher price action is likely causing technical traders to wonder if the 80.0000 mark is going to be challenged again. In the middle of July the USD/INR was able to trade above the 80.0000 reaching an apex of nearly 80.2200 temporarily on the 14th of the month.

Even if the USD/INR is overbought it could go higher via Speculative Conditions

The middle of last week shook the USD/INR from a seemingly polite trading range, in which reversals lower were starting to signal evidence that the long term bullish streak from the forex pair might be slowing.  The short term trend however was proven wrong and nervous sentiment emerged again within financial institutions as whispers about more hawkish U.S Federal Reserve policy was discussed.

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The publication of the Fed’s Meeting Minutes report last week indicated there is a disagreement within the U.S central bank regarding future steps to combat inflation. Troubling for traders is the fact the USD/INR is now within sight of all-time highs again, and that more fundamental news sparks will fly later this week.

Jackson Hole Talks and Preliminary GDP from U.S will affect the USD/INR this Week

The major central banks of the world this week will be getting together in Jackson Hole, Wyoming which is a symposium for financial heavyweights to discuss monetary policy. On Friday Fed Chairman Powell will speak. And before this, Thursday, the U.S will publish Preliminary GDP data. In other words traders of the USD/INR need to expect more volatility.

  • If the 17.9000 mark is toppled and higher value is sustained the USD/INR could again challenge the 18.0000 in the near term.
  • Behavioral sentiment is likely to remain nervous because of volatility which is certain to be caused because of policy speeches and economic data from the U.S later this week.

Traders of the USD/INR may be tempted to believe the forex pair has climbed too high and may attempt to sell. However, reversals lower in the short term will likely remain limited. Quick hitting trades are advised which are not overly ambitious today and tomorrow.

A vast sea of volatility will be demonstrated in the USD/INR later this week and risk management will be essential. The trend higher in the USD/INR may be hard to wager on for contrarians, but if support levels are tested in the short term looking for small moves upwards could prove worthwhile.

USD/INR Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 79.9050

Current Support: 79.8300

High Target: 80.0300

Low Target: 79.7100

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Trend is Still Bullish /2022/08/23/usd-jpy-technical-analysis-trend-is-still-bullish/ /2022/08/23/usd-jpy-technical-analysis-trend-is-still-bullish/#respond Tue, 23 Aug 2022 15:05:38 +0000 /2022/08/23/usd-jpy-technical-analysis-trend-is-still-bullish/ [ad_1]

A surging US dollar threatens to end the nascent rally in the yen, just as speculators have abandoned betting on the Japanese currency. The USD/JPY currency pair started this week’s trading with the same performance as last week by moving upwards, and its gains reached the 137.65 support level, before settling around the 137.50 level in the beginning of Tuesday’s trading. The US dollar jumped nearly 3% against the Japanese yen last week, buoyed by higher Treasury yields as traders braced for the Federal Reserve’s hawkish commentary at the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium. The strength was broad as the greenback rose against all of its G10 peers, but it put the dollar-yen back on track to rush towards the closely watched record 140.

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The renewed strength of the US dollar comes at a time when currency traders were inclined to the opinion that the worst losses of the year for the yen were behind it. The currency was hit hard by a widening interest rate gap between the US and Japan, higher oil prices and a weakening of its safe haven status, but it has rebounded since mid-July as hedge funds covered short positions.

Leveraged investors cut their net bearish bets to the lowest level since March 2021, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. While further strength in the US dollar could reignite one of the hottest macro trades of the year, yen watchers now see any pullback as temporary. But paying over $140 per dollar would renew pressure on the Bank of Japan over its super easy monetary policy and on the government to step in.

Commenting on the performance of the currency market. “USD/JPY may approach a year high at 139.39 as the market price in Powell’s hawkish speech,” Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo, wrote in a note on Monday. “But given that the dollar appears to be rising faster in light of US yields, the pair may also be vulnerable to a fall after his speech as markets take into account the tightening.”

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to reiterate the US central bank’s intention to continue raising interest rates to contain inflation in his speech on Friday, eliminating speculation of a rate cut next year. In this regard, said Shinsuke Kajita, chief analyst at Resona Holdings in Tokyo: “The dollar may be supported before the emergence of Jackson Hole on the back of the Fed’s hawkish expectations with a dollar-yen range between 134 and 139 levels.” “But the pair could get heavy as the dollar’s ​​rally also has an element of risk aversion which could be reflected in the strength of the Japanese yen.”

USDJPY Technical Analysis:

  • There is no change in my technical view of the USD/JPY currency pair, as the trend is still bullish.  
  • Breaking the resistance 138.30 will strengthen expectations for a more important upward move, which is the historical psychological resistance 140.00.
  • Many forex traders may be interested in this for short positions in anticipation of profit-taking operations.

On the other hand, on the daily chart, the move towards the support levels 135.40 and 133.00 will be important to change the current bullish trend. The currency pair will be affected today by the risk appetite of investors and the reaction from the announcement of the PMI readings for the manufacturing and services sectors and the US home sales.

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USD/TRY Forex Signal: Heading to Bullish Trend /2022/08/19/usd-try-forex-signal-heading-to-bullish-trend/ /2022/08/19/usd-try-forex-signal-heading-to-bullish-trend/#respond Fri, 19 Aug 2022 01:18:35 +0000 /2022/08/19/usd-try-forex-signal-heading-to-bullish-trend/ [ad_1]

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

  • Risk 0.50%.
  • None of the buy or sell transactions of yesterday were activated

Best selling entry points

Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33

  • Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best entry points buy

Entering a buy position with a pending order from levels of 17.85

  • The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.54.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.

Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

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Analysis of the Turkish lira

The price of the USD/TRY only moved slightly during today’s early trading, the dollar had risen near levels of 18 lira yesterday, before the pair returned to stability below this level. The dollar rose against the major currencies during yesterday’s trading after the announcement of the FOMC meeting minutes, which showed the possibility that the Fed will start moving interest rates at a slower pace depending on the circumstances and economic data. Some Fed members also saw the possibility of keeping the interest rate at elevated levels for a period of time even as inflation began to be brought under control.

Despite the dollar’s gains against most major currencies and emerging market currencies, the US currency did not move only slightly against the lira, as observers attributed the intervention of the Turkish Central Bank directly to impose a kind of stability for the lira price. It is noteworthy that the Turkish Central Bank is suffering from a decline in the volume of foreign exchange, but the bank has received support of several billions from Russia within the project to establish a nuclear plant in the country.

Turkish Lira Technical Outlook

On the technical front, the US dollar against the Turkish lira settled without changes within the same narrow trading range shown on the chart. The pair traded the highest support levels, which are concentrated at 17.85 and 17.75 levels, respectively. While the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 18.00 and 18.07, respectively. The pair is also trading above the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the long-term bullish trend. The chance of the lira rising against the dollar is still slim as the pair is heading in an overall bullish trend. As each decline of the pair represents a good buying opportunity, please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation, with the need to maintain capital management.

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Long Term Trend Upwards Meets Short Term Resistance /2022/08/15/long-term-trend-upwards-meets-short-term-resistance/ /2022/08/15/long-term-trend-upwards-meets-short-term-resistance/#respond Mon, 15 Aug 2022 15:57:00 +0000 /2022/08/15/long-term-trend-upwards-meets-short-term-resistance/ [ad_1]

The USD/TRY remains mired within a long term bullish ride upwards, as Turkish economic policy remains mismanaged.

The USD/TRY remains within sight of the 18.0000 mark.  The past week of trading has seen the USD/TRY currency pair within sight of the important ratio several times, but has not quite been able to topple the mark. However, speculators who are capable of holding long term positions may remain happily bullish as they pursue the trajectory upwards. Unfortunately for the citizens of Turkey a serious amount of fiscal mismanagement has led to the demise of the Turkish Lira.

Long Road Ahead Remains Troublesome for USD/TRY as Politics Impede

Turkish leadership largely remains within the grip of President Erdogan. His decisions and interventions within the fiscal policies of the Turkish central bank have certainly had a negative effect on the USD/TRY over the long term. If a five year chart is looked at by traders the path upwards is evident. The weakness of the USD/TRY cannot be blamed on sudden geopolitics which is inflamed via Turkey’s neighbors of Ukraine and Russia.

No, the President of Turkey has acted with a solid grip which sometimes calls into question his motives regarding interest rates, inflation and practical economic theory for many years. Until better policy comes from Turkey, the USD/TRY will remain in an upwards trajectory. For speculators this means they will likely want to remain buyers of the Forex pair and take advantage of moves higher.

  • While sudden spikes downwards in the USD/TRY certainly occur, price action is by and large upwards but sometimes runs into stiff resistance. The past week has demonstrated these results.
  • Current resistance near the 18.00000 is likely to prove vulnerable, but the question is when it will be vanquished.

All the King’s Horses and Men Cannot Not Put the USD/TRY Together Again

Speculators who pursue the USD/TRY must take into consideration overnight charges, spreads between bids and asks, and understand any other charges which might be seen if they want to trade the currency pair.  Upwards price action in the USD/TRY makes it a dynamic forex pair to pursue. However it is not easy, entry price orders must be used and stop losses are needed to protect against sudden spikes downward.

Buying the USD/TRY on slight dips in price seems like a legitimate wager.  Risk taking tactics need to be used dynamically. Traders must be prepared to hold positions overnight in case resistance levels prove durable like they have the past week. Quick hitting trades may be frequently impossible because of the total expense of putting a USD/TRY position on, meaning too much leverage might be needed to make a quick wager that produces results, and this could lead to massive losses. Unless a trader has deep pockets and a long term timeframe, the USD/TRY may be better watched instead of being traded.

Turkish Lira Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 19.97000

Current Support: 17.90000

High Target: 18.10000

Low Target: 17.82000

USD/TRY

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Breaking Upward Trend /2022/08/11/usd-jpy-technical-analysis-breaking-upward-trend/ /2022/08/11/usd-jpy-technical-analysis-breaking-upward-trend/#respond Thu, 11 Aug 2022 17:58:00 +0000 /2022/08/11/usd-jpy-technical-analysis-breaking-upward-trend/ [ad_1]

  • US inflation figures shook the strength of expectations for the future of a strong and continuous tightening of the US Federal Reserve.
  • The continuous rise in US interest rates was supportive of the USD/JPY currency pair in moving towards its highest in 25 years.
  • Yesterday it collapsed to the support level 132.00 starting from the resistance 135.30 in one trading session.
  • The price of the dollar yen is stable around the level of 132.60 at the time of writing the analysis.

Currently, economists are divided over whether the slowdown in US consumer price growth for July means the Federal Reserve could ease its aggressive program to raise US interest rates, making 75 basis points less specific. Labor Department data on Wednesday showed that the US Consumer Price Index rose 8.5% from a year earlier, cooling off June’s 9.1% advance which was the largest in four decades. Prices were unchanged from the previous month.

Markets are now pricing in the possibility of a 50 basis point increase in September instead of the 75 basis point, and less than 100 basis point gains over the next two meetings. Commenting on this, Derek Holt, an economist at Scotiabank, said: “Whether it’s 50 or 75 in September, it will probably go lower.” on wage-driven catalysts for future inflation versus the latest CPI print, but it’s too early to judge the September move.”

The US central bank’s FOMC raised its benchmark rate by three-quarters of a percentage point in July for the second month in a row, marking the largest consecutive increases in more than a generation to once again tame inflation. 2% target. The next Federal Open Market Committee will meet on September 20-21.

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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters after the July 27 decision that officials could raise rates by the same amount at the next meeting, depending on readings from the economy now and then. It will slow at some point in the future. Federal Reserve officials who have spoken out in recent days have effectively countered a narrative in financial markets that policy makers are envisioning a shift away from tightening amid evidence of a turnaround in the US economy, saying that bringing price growth back to the 2% target remains a priority.

Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy, rose 0.3% from June and 5.9% from a year ago. While these numbers were better than expected, Fed officials are likely to be concerned about how far away they are from the 2% inflation target.

USD/JPY Technical Outlook:

On the daily chart below, the price of the USD/JPY currency pair is at the beginning of the phase of breaking the general upward trend. The direction may change completely in case it moves towards the 130.00 psychological support level. I still prefer to buy the dollar yen from every descending level. Over the same time period, a move towards the resistance levels 133.80 and 135.00 will be important to the extent to which the bulls control the trend again. The dollar-yen pair will be affected today by the announcement of a new round of US inflation, the producer price index and the number of weekly jobless claims.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Breaking the Bearish Trend /2022/08/11/eur-usd-technical-analysis-breaking-the-bearish-trend/ /2022/08/11/eur-usd-technical-analysis-breaking-the-bearish-trend/#respond Thu, 11 Aug 2022 14:46:35 +0000 /2022/08/11/eur-usd-technical-analysis-breaking-the-bearish-trend/ [ad_1]

There is no doubt that the decline in US inflation rates stronger than expected contributed a lot to the decline of the US dollar against the rest of the other major currencies. The share of the EUR/USD currency pair rose quickly, reaching the resistance level of 1.0368, the highest for the currency pair in a month. The rebound was due to the investors’ view of the US inflation figures, which might impede the path of a strong tightening of the US interest rate hike. The EUR/USD pair is stabilizing around the 1.0300 level at the time of writing, awaiting a new round of important US economic data.

All in all, the EUR/USD exchange rate jumped to a double level of technical resistance on the charts after both official measures of US inflation came in lower than market expectations for July, dragging down US bond yields and the dollar more than recent highs. Falling gasoline prices have lowered the overall inflation rate in the US from 9.1% to 8.5% last month

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Economists had expected that metric to fall to 8.7% although if gasoline and natural gas prices fell, increases in the cost of electricity, food and housing would weigh on the metric. Meanwhile, the top rate of core inflation rose 5.9% unchanged last month in the face of expectations for an increase of 6.1% after declines in airline tickets, used cars and trucks, telecommunications and clothing prices offset increases in other categories.

Commenting on this, Biban Ray, FX Analyst at CIBC Capital Markets says, “The impulse in commodity-driven inflation is probably going down, but not so much from the services side (which tends to be more flat).” He noted that the 50-day moving average is an area. Possible short-term resistance of the price of the euro against the dollar. Analysts and economists warned on Wednesday that the data was unlikely to prevent the Federal Reserve from moving toward the interest rate forecast it set in June, which envisions a US interest rate of between 3% and 3.5% by the end of the year.

“The continued decline in gasoline will mean the headline rate drops further in August, but core inflation is likely to be more steady due to labor costs and will keep the Fed in a tightening mode,” says James Knightley, chief economist at ING. As Knightley cautioned after reviewing the data: “Core inflation remains on an upward trajectory due to rising housing rental costs and service sector inflation pressures. Wages are the largest cost input to the service sector.”

Wednesday’s numbers were closely followed by other data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that on Tuesday indicated that US labor costs, or individual labor costs, rose by more than double during the second quarter and for the second consecutive quarter. This data is in part a reflection of higher wage growth rates that were also depicted rising at an accelerating pace in the US Non-Farm Payrolls report released last week.

Euro forecast against the dollar:

  • The recent gains for the EUR/USD pair are a first step towards breaking the downside trend.
  • The currency pair will need to move towards the 1.0400 and 1.0485 resistance levels to confirm that according to the performance on the daily chart.
  • On the downside, the euro dollar price returned towards the support levels 1.0225 and 1.0155, ending the bullish aspirations.
  • We prefer to sell EURUSD from every bullish level.
  • Today, the currency pair will await the release of the US Producer Price Index as well as the number of jobless claims

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Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Correcting Upward Trend /2022/08/09/natural-gas-technical-analysis-correcting-upward-trend/ /2022/08/09/natural-gas-technical-analysis-correcting-upward-trend/#respond Tue, 09 Aug 2022 13:21:06 +0000 /2022/08/09/natural-gas-technical-analysis-correcting-upward-trend/ [ad_1]

Spot natural gas prices stabilized at a decrease in the recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve slight daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 0.12%. It settled at $7.740 per million British thermal units, after declining during yesterday’s trading by It reached -4.46%.

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Yesterday’s Nymex September contract for natural gas fell 47.5 cents to $7.589 per million British thermal units on Monday. October futures contracts were down 47.3 cents to $7.578.

Spot gas prices NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg also fell across most of the US although the sweltering heat continued for another day or so to lose about 20.0 cents to $7.845.

The latest weather models have shown that cold weather will start this week for most of the month in most of the US, so domestic demand will not be as strong as it has been in the past six weeks.

Meanwhile, US production hit an all-time high of 98 billion cubic feet per day last week, and settled near that level early Monday. The supply-to-demand balance may already be showing signs of slackening based on the latest inventory data. Any cooler weather on the horizon could lead to a further decline in the near term.

Technical Analysis

Technically, the main bullish trend in the medium term and along a slope line dominates the natural gas trading movement, as shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily), and it is also supported by its continuous trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days. In addition to that, we note the arrival of relative strength indicators to areas that are very oversold in selling operations, and exaggeratedly compared to the price movement, which suggests the beginning of a positive divergence in them, so that the price is trying in its recent trading to search for a bullish bottom to take as a base that might help it gain positive momentum to help it recover and rise again.

Therefore, we still expect the rise of natural gas to return during its upcoming trading, provided that the support level 7.254 remains intact, especially if its stability returns above the resistance level 8.054, after which it will target the pivotal resistance level 9.600.

Natural Gas

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Gold Technical Analysis: Trend is Still Bullish /2022/08/08/gold-technical-analysis-trend-is-still-bullish/ /2022/08/08/gold-technical-analysis-trend-is-still-bullish/#respond Mon, 08 Aug 2022 17:33:17 +0000 /2022/08/08/gold-technical-analysis-trend-is-still-bullish/ [ad_1]

At the end of last week’s trading, gold futures fell to the level of $ 1764 an ounce, after gains were the highest for the price of gold in a month. It closed the week’s trading stable around the level of $ 1775 an ounce. This decline came despite the fact that the price of the yellow metal is still on its way for weekly gains. Gold prices fell on the back of a massive US jobs report that doubled most market estimates, leading to anticipation of a hawkish policy tightening campaign by the Federal Reserve.

Will the price of XAU/USD touch the top of $1800 again this week?

The price of the precious metal recorded a weekly boost of about 0.5%, bringing its loss since the start of the year 2022 to date to about 2.1%. At the same time, the price of silver, the sister commodity to gold, fell to less than $20. Silver futures fell to $19.845 an ounce. Accordingly, the price of the white metal recorded a weekly decrease of 2.4%, adding to its loss in 2022 by about 15%.

The big story on Friday was the better-than-expected US jobs report for July. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the US economy added a total of 528,000 jobs in July, more than double the market estimate of 250,000. The country’s unemployment rate has fallen to 3.5%.

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According to the advertiser, the average hourly wage increased by 5.2% on an annual basis, the average weekly working hours did not change at 34.6, and the labor force participation rate decreased to 62.1%. The employment snapshot was broad, with nearly every sector reporting job growth, led by leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care.

The impressive US jobs report for July may force the Federal Reserve to push the trigger for a 100 basis point US interest rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next month. Since the labor market can withstand the central bank’s current tightening cycle, the Fed can withstand its rate increases and become more aggressive with a full point increase. This speculation has pushed the US Treasury market over the line, with the benchmark 10-year bond yield rising 15.6 basis points to 2.832%. One-year yields rose 15.6 basis points to 3.272%, while 30-year notes rose 10.8 basis points to 3.07%.

The rally rate environment is usually bearish for gold as it raises the opportunity cost of holding non-return bullion.

Other factors affecting the gold market

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of major currencies, rose to 106.56, from an opening at 105.69. The gain erased its weekly loss and gave the DXY Dollar Index a weekly increase of 0.63%. Since the beginning of 2022 to date, the DXY dollar index has increased by about 11%.

Overall, a stronger profit is bad for dollar-denominated commodities because it makes it more expensive for foreign investors to buy.

In other metals markets, copper futures rose to $3.5525 a pound. And platinum futures rose to $926.20 an ounce. Palladium futures jumped to $2,128.50 an ounce.

XAU/USD Technical Analysis:

In the near term and according to the performance on the hourly chart, it appears that XAU/USD is forming the second bottom of the XABCD double bottom reversal pattern in an upward trend. This indicates that the bulls are trying to maintain a short-term control over the price of gold. Therefore, they will look to extend the current rally by targeting retracements around $1,785 or higher at $1,794 an ounce. On the other hand, the bears will look to pounce on earnings around $1,766, or lower at $1,756 an ounce.

In the long term and according to the performance on the daily chart, it appears that the price of XAU/USD is trading within the formation of a descending channel. This indicates a significant long-term bearish momentum in market sentiment. Therefore, the bears will target long-term profits at around $1,724, or lower at $1,678. On the other hand, the bulls will look to pounce on profits at around $1,822 or higher at $1,870 per ounce.

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Spike Upward Raises Speculative Trend Consideration /2022/07/28/spike-upward-raises-speculative-trend-consideration/ /2022/07/28/spike-upward-raises-speculative-trend-consideration/#respond Thu, 28 Jul 2022 21:06:29 +0000 /2022/07/28/spike-upward-raises-speculative-trend-consideration/ [ad_1]

The NZD/USD is trading within sight of the 0.62670 level, remaining under the key 0.62700 ratio as of this writing.  On the 22nd of July the NZD/USD currency pair did jump above the 0.63000 briefly, but then started to reverse lower before going into last weekend. As this week began the NZD/USD actually fell to a depth of approximately 0.62148 on Monday. However, yesterday’s anticipated U.S Federal Reserve interest rate delivered plenty of volatility as suspected.

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Sharp low and then a Significant Burst Higher Produced Late Yesterday for the NZD/USD

In swift and speculative trading conditions yesterday the NZD/USD traded below the 0.62000 juncture momentarily, but then exploded higher and touched the 0.62700 mark in a blaze of volatile results.  Eventually the NZD/USD traded at a high of nearly 0.62775 before moving lower. This occurred as the U.S Federal Reserve made their interest rate hike of 0.75% to 2.50% official. The NZD/USD sudden test of its higher short term range developed as financial institutions started to digest new pronouncements from the U.S central bank regarding outlook.

  • Technically intriguing is the notion yesterday’s burst higher did not topple last Friday’s high for the NZD/USD.
  • The remainder of this week for the NZD/USD will likely prove fast and produce choppy conditions as outlook is acted upon.

Technically the NZD/USD offers a keen opportunity for wagers. Traders who have suffered from the nagging feeling the New Zealand dollar has been vastly undervalued in recent months against the USD may feel it is time to start wagering on additional upside price action. The long term bearish trend of the NZD/USD has exhibited immense strength. Could now be the time when the NZD/USD starts to reverse legitimately upwards?

Resistance Levels need to be Monitored and Show they are Durable in the NZD/USD

Speculative bullish positions may prove alluring and a worthwhile wager in the near term.  However the results of the NZD/USD the past nine months are a stern reminder the bearish trend of the currency pair has produced downward action consistently. The NZD/USD was trading near 0.72100 in the last week of October 2021. And then the U.S Federal Reserve stepped in with its series of interest rate hikes.

If the NZD/USD steps above the 0.62700 level soon and begins to sustain upwards momentum, bullish speculators may become ambitious and believe the 0.62725 to 0.62750 will become an easy get. However, few things ever prove easy when participating in Forex for retail traders, risk management will be essential and stop loss order and use of conservative leverage is urged. Traders buying the NZD/USD and looking for upside price action cannot be blamed, but realistic targets are essential to cash out profits when they are made. Using lower support levels which look durable and igniting buying positions could prove the best tactic for speculative buying wagers.

NZD/USD Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.62700

Current Support: 0.62604

High Target: 0.62850

Low Target: 0.62540

NZD/USD

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