I think you have to be cautious and take profits as soon as you can, because this is a market that has decided it no longer has any interest in panicking

• The NASDAQ 100 Index exploded to the upside, hanging about the 13,250 level.
• This is an area that I think will continue to be crucial, so it’ll be interesting to see how we behave.
• Thursday is obviously going to be overshadowed by Friday, which is the Non-Farm Payroll announcement.
• Because of this, I think it’s likely that we will see the market somewhat quiet on Thursday, but I must admit that breaking above the dual shooting stars is a very bullish sign.

Pullback Likely

However, if you look to the left, you can see that there is a lot of noise between here and 13,600, so I think we may get a little bit of a pullback. (Full disclosure here, I thought that yesterday as well.) That being said, markets eventually need to come back, but it looks like Wall Street is in a frenzy right now based upon the idea that the Federal Reserve is going to come and save them. This has people piling into technology stocks, which of course have reported better than expected earnings on the whole, but the outlook is a bit of a question at this point.

If we turn around and break down below the 13,000 level, it’s possible that the market could go to the 12,800 level, possibly even lower than that.

I believe that the real rubber meets the road after the jobs number, because if the jobs number comes in really hot, then we have the possibility that people will start to worry about the Federal Reserve raising rates again. Quite frankly, this is a market that is flying in the face of the fundamentals, but that’s nothing new. Keep in mind that markets are built to go higher, so it only takes a handful of companies in the NASDAQ 100 to move this thing to the upside. If we break above the 13,600 level, this thing is going to launch towards 14,000 rather quickly.

On a breakdown, I think you have to be cautious and take profits as soon as you can, because this is a market that has decided it no longer has any interest in panicking. As long as Wall Street thinks they are going to be bailed out, there’s a good chance this market will find plenty of buyers.

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Because of the hammer pattern, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the key resistance level at 1.0480.

Bullish View

• Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0480.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0375.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 1.0400 and a take-profit at 1.0350.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.04600.

The EUR/USD volatility rose after last Friday’s strong Eurozone consumer inflation data. The pair dropped to a low of 1.0366, which was the lowest level since June 15th of this year. It remains about 3.3% below the highest level in June this year.

European Inflation Surging

The EUR/USD pair saw elevated levels of volatility after Eurostat published the latest consumer inflation data on Friday. The numbers revealed that the bloc’s inflation soared to a record high in June as the cost of energy remained at an elevated level.

The headline consumer inflation data surge to 8.6% in June from 8.1% in May of this year. This increase was higher than the median estimate of 8.5%. Countries like France, Italy, and Spain published record inflation numbers during the week. At the same time, inflation in Germany declined slightly due to fuel tax cuts and public transport discounts, which are temporary.

These numbers came a few days after the European Commission said that consumer confidence has dropped sharply in the past few months. At the same time, many companies in the bloc like Zalando, Volkswagen, and BMW have reported a sharp decline in sales in the past few quarters.

Therefore, the ECB is in a difficult situation as it faces criticism of letting inflation surge substantially above the target of 2.0%. Analysts expect that the bank will deliver its first interest rate hike in over a decade this month. The base case is that the bank will hike by 0.25% although many analysts expect it to hike by 0.50%.

There will be several important economic data from Europe on Monday. Germany will publish the latest trade numbers while Eurostat will deliver the latest producer price index (PPI) data from the region. Analysts expect the data to show that producer inflation surged to 36.7% in June.

EUR/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the EUR/USD pair made a strong bearish breakout last week. As this happened, the pair formed a hammer pattern, which is usually a bullish sign. The pair is slightly below the important leve at 1.0450, which was the lowest level on June 17th. It is also below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages.

Therefore, because of the hammer pattern, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the key resistance level at 1.0480. A drop below the support at 1.0385 will invalidate the bullish view.

There is a possibility that the pair will drop to the key support at 1.0540 as the triangle pattern nears its confluence.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.0615 and a take-profit at 1.0700.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0550.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Sell the EUR/USD and set a take-profit at 1.0500.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0650.

The EUR/USD pair rose to an important resistance level after a hawkish statement by Christine Lagarde. The pair rose to a high of 1.0615, which was the highest level since June 10th of this year. It has risen by more than 2.2% above the lowest level this month.

Christine Lagarde Points to Rate Hike

The EUR/USD pair rose as Christine Lagarde of the European Central Bank made a statement during the American session.

In it, she reiterated that the bank was focused on fighting inflation. It has already reduced its bond market activity and is now set to deliver its first interest rate hike in years in July. She signaled that the rate hike will be 0.25%. Most importantly, she will pull the ECB out of negative interest rates in September. Lagarde will deliver more remarks on Tuesday.

The EUR/USD also reacted to the latest strong numbers from the United States. Data by the Commerce Department showed that durable goods orders rose from 0.4% to 0.7%, which was higher than the expected 0.1%. Core durable orders rose from 0.2% to 0.7% in May as demand continued rising.

Meanwhile, after two weeks of weak housing data, the US published surprising pending home sales data. According to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales rose by 0.7% in May compared with April. This was a surprise since pending home sales dropped in the previous six straight months.

Pending home sales rose even as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.64%. At the same time, the supply of homes has started rising, according to Realtor.com.

The next key data to watch will be the upcoming US consumer confidence number by the Conference Board. Analysts expect the data to show that consumer confidence dropped to 100 in June as inflation surged.

EUR/USD Forecast

The EUR/USD pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern on the four-hour chart. It moved to the upper side of this triangle and it remains slightly above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. The Stochastic Oscillator has moved slightly below the overbought level.

The pair formed an evening star pattern, which is usually a bearish sign. Therefore, there is a possibility that the pair will drop to the key support at 1.0540 as the triangle pattern nears its confluence. In the coming days, it will likely have a bullish breakout as bulls target the key resistance at 1.0700.

The pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the first resistance at 25,000.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 22,000 and a take-profit at 25,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 20,000.
• Timeline: 2 days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 20,500 and a take-profit at 18,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 22,000.

The BTC/USD price remained in a consolidation phase during the weekend as the market sentiment improved. The pair is trading at 21,400, which is comfortably above this month’s low of 17,650. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Ripple also rose.

Bitcoin and Stocks Correlation

Last week was a positive one for the financial market as most assets rose. American indices like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 had their first positive week in three weeks. On Friday, the Dow Jones rose by over 800 points while the Nasdaq rose by over 400 points.

This rebound happened even after two days of grueling testimony of Jerome Powell by American lawmakers. Speaking at the Senate and House of Representatives, Powell reiterated that the bank will continue tightening rates until inflation starts easing. Stocks rose because investors had already priced in this hawkish tone by the Fed.

The BTC/USD pair also rose after it emerged that Goldman Sachs was getting interested in cryptocurrencies. The company is said to be raising funds to acquire Celsius, the embattled cryptocurrency lender. The acquisition price is expected to be about $2 billion, making it a favorable exit for the troubled firm.

Meanwhile, FTX, the giant crypto company announced that it would acquire a stake in BlockFi, another crypto lender. Last week, the firm extended a $250 million loan to stabilize the company as the number of redemptions rose.

The next key catalyst for the BTC/USD pair will be the upcoming American housing data. The US will publish the latest pending home sales data. Analysts expect the data to show that pending home sales declined by more than 4% in May. The US Conference Board will publish the latest consumer confidence data on Tuesday.

BTC/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a tight range in the past few days. The pair has struggled moving above the important resistance level at 21,684, which was the highest point last month. It is also slightly above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the RSI is moving upwards. The pair is also along the standard pivot point.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the first resistance at 25,000. A drop below the support at 20,000 will invalidate the bullish view.

The recent cautious stability of the gold price may move strongly, starting from today and ending tomorrow. Today, the European Central Bank will announce an official date for moving interest rates, and tomorrow the US inflation numbers will be announced. 

These both have the most impact on the path of gold, and they will shape the future of closing the price of the yellow metal for this week and what it will be next week. For three trading sessions in a row, the price of gold is moving in a range between the level of $1837 an ounce and the resistance level of $1860 an ounce, and it is settling around the $1850 level.

The gold market got some impetus from the announcement that global central banks are going to buy more gold. Global central banks see gold as a reserve asset and are likely to increase their holdings of the metal in the next twelve months, according to a survey by the World Gold Council. This is mainly due to growing concerns about a possible global financial crisis, as central banks in emerging markets and developing economies, or about a quarter of respondents, intend to add more bullion to their reserves. This is a slight increase from 21% in 2021.

Expected changes in the international monetary system and concerns about increased economic risks in reserve currency economies are also key factors, the survey said. Add to that rising inflation, monetary tightening and the Russian war in Ukraine, further disrupting supply chains and bringing geopolitical uncertainty. Commenting on this, Shaukai Fan, the global head of central banks at the WGC, said in an interview: “The geopolitical situation is more volatile, and we don’t know how long this situation will continue.” And “what happened is that gold proved its safe haven properties during that case. And that’s one aspect that central banks are thinking about.”

Fan Pan added that central banks in emerging markets are optimistic about the future of gold in the international monetary system, and they stand on the fence on the US dollar. The survey also showed that the majority of these respondents expect gold to grow in proportion to total reserves over the coming years, while its attributes as a safe haven for value and ability to perform in times of crisis will remain influential.

The poll was conducted between February 23 and April 29 with a total of 57 responses.

US stocks rose for a second day in a row, even as the World Bank sharply cut its forecast for global economic growth this year, highlighting Russia’s war against Ukraine and the potential for food shortages and a possible return to “stagflation,” a toxic combination of inflation and slow growth unseen since More than four decades. For her part, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, in her testimony before the Senate Finance Committee, said that she expects inflation to remain high and that reducing it is a top priority. More data on recent price swings will arrive Friday when the US releases the US Consumer Price Index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices.

The fragility of the economy has been on the minds of Wall Street this year amid concerns about an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The US central bank is moving aggressively to stamp out the worst inflation in decades, but it risks strangling the economy if it moves too far or too quickly. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise its key short-term interest rate by half a percentage point at its meeting next week. This will be the second straight increase to double the usual amount, and investors are expecting a third increase in July.

Gold technical analysis: On the daily chart, there is a neutrality in the performance of the gold price, and the tendency will be more to the upside if prices move towards the resistance levels of 1875 and 1888 dollars. The last level is important to move towards the psychological resistance of 1900 dollars, respectively. The upside trend may be shaken today if the European Central Bank confirms the date to tighten its policy and follow the same path as other global central banks, but I still prefer buying gold from every descending level and the most suitable for buying if this happens, the support levels of 1837 and 1820 dollars, respectively.

Yes, it’s been a nice rally as of late, but the reality is that it is but a blip on the radar of what we had seen for so long.

The British pound continued to grind to the upside on Monday, although it should be noted that it was a very quiet session as Americans were away for Memorial Day. Ultimately, we also have the 50-day EMA above that should offer resistance as well. Regardless, even if we rally from here, I think that it is going to be more of a grind higher and it will probably set up for a longer-term selling opportunity.

The 1.30 level above is massive resistance just waiting to happen because it is “market memory” that comes into play here. It had been previous support, so I would certainly think that the sellers would be interested in getting involved again. The 1.30 level is also a large, round, psychologically significant figure, so in and of itself it could cause a certain amount of noise.

Ultimately, this is a market that has been in a downtrend for quite some time, and I think that any breakdown should be looked at as a potential selling opportunity. If we break down below the 1.25 on a daily close, that will more than likely continue to put sellers back into the marketplace. The 1.22 level underneath could be the target, perhaps even the 1.20 level after that. The market has been in a downtrend for quite a few different reasons, not the least of which would be risk aversion. There are still plenty of reasons to think that fear will be out there, which would have money drive into the US dollar.

Part of what we have been seeing lately has been yields dropping in America, but we have sold off so drastically that a bit of a bounce had to happen. Ultimately, this is a market that will eventually start to look at people buying bonds as driving up demand for the greenback as well. In fact, it’s not till we break above the 1.31 level that I would consider buying the British pound, and until the Bank of England changes its overall outlook on interest rate hikes. Yes, it’s been a nice rally as of late, but the reality is that it is but a blip on the radar of what we had seen for so long. I’m looking for signs of exhaustion to start selling again.

The pair will likely keep rising as bulls the key resistance at 1.2670.

Bullish View

• Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2700.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2496.
• Timeline” 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 1.2525 and a take-profit at 1.2450.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2625.

The GBP/USD pair gathered momentum during the Asian session as the US dollar index retreated and as investors reacted to mixed UK data. It is trading at 1.2570, which was the highest level since May 5th. It has risen by more than 3.45% from its lowest level this year.

Weaker US Dollar

After soaring to the highest level in almost two decades, the US dollar index has retreated slightly in the past few days. The decline has happened even after the hawkish statement by Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve.

In his statement last week, Powell reiterated that the bank will continue hiking interest rates and warned that there would be some pain. Therefore, the weakening US dollar has contributed to the price action of the GBP/USD pair.

The GBP/USD pair has also held steady after the mixed economic numbers that were published last week. The data revealed that the unemployment rate crashed to the lowest level in decades. The labor market has tightened substantially as the number of vacancies has risen.

Further data showed that the country’s inflation is still surging. It rose to 9% in April this year as the cost of energy remained at elevated levels. At the same time, the soaring inflation has not slowed retail sales. On Friday, data by the Office of National Statistics showed that retail sales rose sharply in April helped by cigarettes and alcohol.

Therefore, the GBP/USD pair has risen sharply as investors’ price in more tightening by the Bank of England (BOE). In a statement, the BOE chief economist warned that it will continue tightening in the coming months.

The next key catalysts for the GBP/USD pair will be the upcoming flash manufacturing and services PMI data from the US and UK. A statement by Jerome Powell will also lead to some market action.

GBP/USD Forecast

The GBP/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few days. Along the way, the pair has moved above the important resistance level at 1.2496, which was the highest level on May 18th. This price was also along the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern.

Further, the pair has moved slightly above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Stochastic Oscillator has moved above the overbought level. Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls the key resistance at 1.2670.

While the long-term trend is bearish, there is a likelihood that the pair will keep rising as bulls target the key resistance at 1.0675.

Bullish View

• Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0675.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0500.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 1.0500 and add a take-profit at 1.0450.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0550.

The EUR/USD pair moved sideways ahead of key economic events scheduled for this week. The pair is trading at 1.0555, which is about 3.5% above the lowest point this month.

ECB Pressure Continues

The EUR/USD pair has been in a recovery mode in the past few weeks as pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) remains.

During the weekend, the German central bank president reiterated that the bank should start hiking interest rates as soon as possible in a bid to fight inflation. The concern is that the weakening euro will make push the rate of inflation higher in the coming months.

The key data to watch today will be the latest German business assessment data by the Ifo Institute. Economists expect these numbers to show that the business climate index declined from 91.8 to 91.4. On the other hand, they expect that the current assessment declined from 97.2 to 95.8. At the same time, business expectations are expected to drop from 86.7 to 83.5.

The main concern among German businesses is that inflation and the overall cost of doing business in the country is rising. The situation will likely continue as natural gas prices keep rising in the coming months.

There will be no major economic data from the US and Europe today. Therefore, investors will be focusing on a slew of economic data and events that are set to happen this week. On Tuesday, Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech in which she will likely talk about the next policy actions by the bank.

Her speech will be followed by another one by Jerome Powell of th Federal Reserve. Like last week, Powell will likely insist that the bank will continue with the tightening pace. Other key data will be the FOMC minutes, US durable goods orders, and US GDP numbers.

EUR/USD Forecast

The EUR/USD pair has been in a slow upward trend in the past few days. As it rose, the pair retested the important resistance level at 1.0600, where it struggled moving above in the first week of the month. The pair moved slightly above the 25-day moving averages while the MACD has moved above the neutral level.

Therefore, while the long-term trend is bearish, there is a likelihood that the pair will keep rising as bulls target the key resistance at 1.0675.

There is a possibility that the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the key resistance level at 0.7200.

Bullish View

• Buy the AUD/USD and set a take-profit at 0.7200.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6945.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 0.6950 and a take-profit at 0.6850.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.7100.

The AUD/USD pair tilted upwards as the US dollar rally eased. The pair rose to a high of 0.7042, which was the highest level since May 9th this year. It has risen by more than 2.50% from the lowest level this month.

Slowing China’s Economy and Australia’s Elections

The AUD/USD pair has risen even as worries of the plunging Chinese economy continues. Data published this week provided more color about the state of the country’s economy. The data revealed that the country’s retail sales and industrial production declined in April as the lockdowns in Shanghai continued.

These numbers raise worries that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will accelerate its hiking cycle in a bid to deal with a potential upsurge of inflation. These concerns are being seen in the bond market, with futures having a 98% chance of a 25 basis point hike in June. These futures also predict that rates will end the year at 2.73%.

Minutes of the RBA that were released on Tuesday showed that officials considered a 0.15%, 0.25%, and 0.40% rate hike in this month’s meeting.

The AUD/USD is also reacting to the latest Australian wage price index (WPI) data that came out in the morning session. The data showed that the wage price index rose to 2.4% in the first quarter. On a QoQ basis, the index remained at 0.7%.

The next key data to watch will be the latest US building permits and housing starts numbers that will come out later today. Economists expect these numbers to reveal that building permits declined from 1.87 million to 1.81 million in April. Housing starts are expected to have dropped from 1.793 million to 1.76 million. Still, the impact of these numbers on the AUD/USD pair will be limited.

AUD/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the AUD/USD pair recovered and retested the important resistance level at 0.7031. This was an important level since it was the lowest level on May 2nd this month. The pair managed to move slightly above the 25-day and 50-day moving average while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved close to the overbought level. It has also formed a rounded bottom pattern.

Therefore, there is a possibility that the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the key resistance level at 0.7200. A drop below the support at 0.6945 will invalidate the bullish view.

Fading rallies should continue to be the case.

Unlike most of the crypto market, Monero took off to the upside on Monday, gaining 15%. That being said, we still face a lot of resistance above, as the $180 level should continue to offer a bit of resistance. We did pull back from there, so it does suggest that perhaps this rally will be somewhat short-lived. After all, you need to keep in mind that Monero is a much smaller market than some of the others like Ethereum or Bitcoin, so a little bit of a volume surge could come into the picture.

Furthermore, you should also pay attention to the fact that the volume was lower than usual, meaning that the market was less liquid than usual. Ultimately, I think the market is one that you would continue to fade going forward on signs of exhaustion, with the $180 level being an obvious place where we have seen a lot of trouble. We have recently seen the 50-day EMA break below the 200-day EMA, forming the so-called “death cross.”

This is a market that will continue to follow the rest of crypto, although occasionally the lack of liquidity could make it change a bit. The candlestick is rather bullish, but it is probably only a matter of time before the massive selloff continues to attract resistance. The market had fallen apart quite drastically, and in a situation like this, it makes sense that we would see sellers come back in every time there is the slightest hint of trouble.

If the rest of crypto takes off, then it is possible that Monero might have an oversize move, but ultimately this is a situation where these altcoins will continue to be negative, at least until we see those bigger ones take off to the upside. The US dollar probably needs to stop as well, because as long as the US dollar continues to strengthen, it means that people are running away from risk, and you have to keep in mind that the price of Monero is quoted in those same US dollars, so the stronger that the greenback is, the less it will take to buy Monero. Fading rallies should continue to be the case.