The USD/CAD is trading near its higher levels last demonstrated in the middle of July as uncertainty has created nervous behavioral sentiment in Forex.

The USD/CAD is trading near the 1.30000 level as of this writing, the last time these values saw sustained trading was on the 18^th of July. On the 14^th of July the USD/CAD currency pair did trade briefly above the 1.32000 mark. The spike higher seen in the middle of July reflected broad Forex conditions as the USD gained against most other major currencies, and the USD is gaining again in the short term.

Late Last Week’s Climb in the USD/CAD Likely Triggered by Uncertainty in Financial Houses

While technical traders may be able to explain away the sudden lurch higher in the USD/CAD as a natural reaction due to support levels proving they were strong, there is plenty of reason to suspect fundamental conditions have caused the outbreak of buying being displayed in the near term. Uncertainty regarding the length of time the U.S Fed will maintain its hawkish interest rate policy is causing mayhem in Forex. The USD/CAD began its move upwards after the publication of the U.S Federal Reserve’s Meeting Minutes which had no clear answers for traders.

• Financial houses may be nervous the U.S Fed will not only raise interest rates in September, but follow this hike with more hawkish actions in the months afterwards.
• Resistance levels should be monitored carefully within the USD/CAD, the 1.30000 mark will serve as a strong indication for behavioral sentiment.

Current Price Levels Should be Monitored Closely by USD/CAD Speculators

The 1.30000 juncture in the USD/CAD saw trading above this ratio in early May, mid-June and the first two weeks of July. As questions again become inflamed regarding U.S central bank policy and the price of energy remains within the lower rungs of its value range taking the last seven months into view, the USD/CAD may continue to challenge the 1.30000 mark. The USD/CAD has seen volatility the past week of trading and speculators should use their risk management carefully.

While it may be tempting to believe the USD/CAD is overbought and a natural reversal lower will occur, the results from the last couple of days of trading are a sign behavioral sentiment is nervous. If sustained trading were to be demonstrated above the 1.30000 level, some traders may be tempted to target slightly higher price levels for quick hitting results. Marks of 1.30100 to 1.30200 may become legitimate wagers for speculators who believe additional buying is going to develop short term.

Canadian Dollar Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 1.30085

Current Support: 1.29800

High Target: 1.30550

Low Target: 1.29400

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If Wall Street finally listens to the Federal Reserve and believes what they are saying when it comes to monetary policy, we will more likely than not see this pair go much higher.

• The USD rallied a bit against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as we see quite a bit of upward pressure longer-term.
• Ultimately, it’s worth noting that the ¥131 level has been massive support from before, and the fact that the USD/JPY currency pair has bounced from there recently suggests that the uptrend is very much intact.

Watch the 10-Year Yield

You should always keep an eye on the 10-year yield in the United States, as it could give you a bit of a “heads up” as to where we are going next. This is because the Bank of Japan continues to buy unlimited bonds, essentially printing unlimited yen. In that situation, traders are likely to continue seeing reasons to push this market higher. The yield differential between the 2 currencies is astronomical and more likely than not going to continue to push this pair higher.

However, if we start to see yields drop in general, then it’s likely that we will see the Japanese yen strengthen a bit, due to the fact that they will not have to print as much currency. At this point, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where we break away from this correlation, especially as there are so many people paying close attention to the situation with central banks around the world and whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to have to tighten much further than Wall Street is willing to admit.

That being said, if Wall Street finally listens to the Federal Reserve and believes what they are saying when it comes to monetary policy, we will more likely than not see this pair go much higher. Granted, some people are already calling this a bearish black, but I think we have a way to go before you can make that argument. If we were to break down below the ¥131 level, we could go looking to the ¥127 level. The ¥127 level is where I defined the trend as changing, so if we were to break it down below there, then we may have to reevaluate the entire trend. Until then, I suspect that this is a market that continues to be a “buy on the dips” situation, just as it has been for several months. The €140 level above is the price, so we will see whether or not this market can get there.

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• US inflation figures shook the strength of expectations for the future of a strong and continuous tightening of the US Federal Reserve.
• The continuous rise in US interest rates was supportive of the USD/JPY currency pair in moving towards its highest in 25 years.
• Yesterday it collapsed to the support level 132.00 starting from the resistance 135.30 in one trading session.
• The price of the dollar yen is stable around the level of 132.60 at the time of writing the analysis.

Currently, economists are divided over whether the slowdown in US consumer price growth for July means the Federal Reserve could ease its aggressive program to raise US interest rates, making 75 basis points less specific. Labor Department data on Wednesday showed that the US Consumer Price Index rose 8.5% from a year earlier, cooling off June’s 9.1% advance which was the largest in four decades. Prices were unchanged from the previous month.

Markets are now pricing in the possibility of a 50 basis point increase in September instead of the 75 basis point, and less than 100 basis point gains over the next two meetings. Commenting on this, Derek Holt, an economist at Scotiabank, said: “Whether it’s 50 or 75 in September, it will probably go lower.” on wage-driven catalysts for future inflation versus the latest CPI print, but it’s too early to judge the September move.”

The US central bank’s FOMC raised its benchmark rate by three-quarters of a percentage point in July for the second month in a row, marking the largest consecutive increases in more than a generation to once again tame inflation. 2% target. The next Federal Open Market Committee will meet on September 20-21.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters after the July 27 decision that officials could raise rates by the same amount at the next meeting, depending on readings from the economy now and then. It will slow at some point in the future. Federal Reserve officials who have spoken out in recent days have effectively countered a narrative in financial markets that policy makers are envisioning a shift away from tightening amid evidence of a turnaround in the US economy, saying that bringing price growth back to the 2% target remains a priority.

Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy, rose 0.3% from June and 5.9% from a year ago. While these numbers were better than expected, Fed officials are likely to be concerned about how far away they are from the 2% inflation target.

USD/JPY Technical Outlook:

On the daily chart below, the price of the USD/JPY currency pair is at the beginning of the phase of breaking the general upward trend. The direction may change completely in case it moves towards the 130.00 psychological support level. I still prefer to buy the dollar yen from every descending level. Over the same time period, a move towards the resistance levels 133.80 and 135.00 will be important to the extent to which the bulls control the trend again. The dollar-yen pair will be affected today by the announcement of a new round of US inflation, the producer price index and the number of weekly jobless claims.

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Spot natural gas prices stabilized at a decrease in the recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve slight daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 0.12%. It settled at $7.740 per million British thermal units, after declining during yesterday’s trading by It reached -4.46%.

Yesterday’s Nymex September contract for natural gas fell 47.5 cents to $7.589 per million British thermal units on Monday. October futures contracts were down 47.3 cents to $7.578.

Spot gas prices NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg also fell across most of the US although the sweltering heat continued for another day or so to lose about 20.0 cents to $7.845.

The latest weather models have shown that cold weather will start this week for most of the month in most of the US, so domestic demand will not be as strong as it has been in the past six weeks.

Meanwhile, US production hit an all-time high of 98 billion cubic feet per day last week, and settled near that level early Monday. The supply-to-demand balance may already be showing signs of slackening based on the latest inventory data. Any cooler weather on the horizon could lead to a further decline in the near term.

Technical Analysis

Technically, the main bullish trend in the medium term and along a slope line dominates the natural gas trading movement, as shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily), and it is also supported by its continuous trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days. In addition to that, we note the arrival of relative strength indicators to areas that are very oversold in selling operations, and exaggeratedly compared to the price movement, which suggests the beginning of a positive divergence in them, so that the price is trying in its recent trading to search for a bullish bottom to take as a base that might help it gain positive momentum to help it recover and rise again.

Therefore, we still expect the rise of natural gas to return during its upcoming trading, provided that the support level 7.254 remains intact, especially if its stability returns above the resistance level 8.054, after which it will target the pivotal resistance level 9.600.

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The NZD/USD is trading within sight of the 0.62670 level, remaining under the key 0.62700 ratio as of this writing.  On the 22^nd of July the NZD/USD currency pair did jump above the 0.63000 briefly, but then started to reverse lower before going into last weekend. As this week began the NZD/USD actually fell to a depth of approximately 0.62148 on Monday. However, yesterday’s anticipated U.S Federal Reserve interest rate delivered plenty of volatility as suspected.

Sharp low and then a Significant Burst Higher Produced Late Yesterday for the NZD/USD

In swift and speculative trading conditions yesterday the NZD/USD traded below the 0.62000 juncture momentarily, but then exploded higher and touched the 0.62700 mark in a blaze of volatile results.  Eventually the NZD/USD traded at a high of nearly 0.62775 before moving lower. This occurred as the U.S Federal Reserve made their interest rate hike of 0.75% to 2.50% official. The NZD/USD sudden test of its higher short term range developed as financial institutions started to digest new pronouncements from the U.S central bank regarding outlook.

• Technically intriguing is the notion yesterday’s burst higher did not topple last Friday’s high for the NZD/USD.
• The remainder of this week for the NZD/USD will likely prove fast and produce choppy conditions as outlook is acted upon.

Technically the NZD/USD offers a keen opportunity for wagers. Traders who have suffered from the nagging feeling the New Zealand dollar has been vastly undervalued in recent months against the USD may feel it is time to start wagering on additional upside price action. The long term bearish trend of the NZD/USD has exhibited immense strength. Could now be the time when the NZD/USD starts to reverse legitimately upwards?

Resistance Levels need to be Monitored and Show they are Durable in the NZD/USD

Speculative bullish positions may prove alluring and a worthwhile wager in the near term.  However the results of the NZD/USD the past nine months are a stern reminder the bearish trend of the currency pair has produced downward action consistently. The NZD/USD was trading near 0.72100 in the last week of October 2021. And then the U.S Federal Reserve stepped in with its series of interest rate hikes.

If the NZD/USD steps above the 0.62700 level soon and begins to sustain upwards momentum, bullish speculators may become ambitious and believe the 0.62725 to 0.62750 will become an easy get. However, few things ever prove easy when participating in Forex for retail traders, risk management will be essential and stop loss order and use of conservative leverage is urged. Traders buying the NZD/USD and looking for upside price action cannot be blamed, but realistic targets are essential to cash out profits when they are made. Using lower support levels which look durable and igniting buying positions could prove the best tactic for speculative buying wagers.

NZD/USD Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.62700

Current Support: 0.62604

High Target: 0.62850

Low Target: 0.62540

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New long-term highs were made in the USD/JPY currency pair yesterday, as financial institutions absorbed another round of information from the U.S Federal Reserve.

Yesterday’s trading in the USD/JPY saw the Forex pair reach ultra long-term highs near the 137.800 vicinity. Intriguingly the upwards trajectory displayed yesterday was not extremely violent, unless ‘a trader’ happened to be on the wrong side of the price action. The USD/JPY continues to demonstrate a strong bullish trend which until proven otherwise could prove unfortunate to be wagering against. The trend upwards has been incremental.

Long Term Bullish Trend of USD/JPY is Likely Not About to Erode Quickly

Certainly, at some point in the future the USD/JPY will likely start witnessing an erosion of value.  However, the current economic environment is causing a dynamic swirl of confrontation regarding central bank policies between Japan and the U.S, this while inflation is being confronted internationally. The Bank of Japan continues to remain dovish and the U.S Federal Reserve is voicing hawkish rhetoric.

• U.S Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes point to another rate hike the last week of July.
• Bank of Japan continues to voice a dovish interest rate policy and is likely to remain stubborn.

Technical traders do have the ability to also monitor the USD/JPY via extremely long-term charts, and see historically the USD/JPY has traded at higher vantage points. This is not the first time the currency pair has seen such levels; today’s prices are still below the highs of 1998. Technical traders may want to note the USD/JPY touched a mark of nearly 147.750 in August of 1998. That is not to say the USD/JPY will find this value again, it is merely to note the potential exists for greater heights and should not surprise speculators.

Additional Buying Could be Ignited if the 138.000 level is Toppled

Psychological price levels will have a strong influence within the current pace of price velocity of the USD/JPY currency pair.  If the USD/JPY begins to show an ability to move above the 137.500 level and sustain this value, speculators will no doubt start to eye yesterday’s highs and may believe the 138.000 mark is going to be challenged sooner rather than later. If the 138.000 level is flirted with and surpassed this could open the door for an additional wave of buying.

Speculators who prefer to be conservative cannot be blamed, but perhaps they should not be contrarian.  Selling the USD/JPY and looking for reversals lower could prove to be very dangerous still. Yes, the USD/JPY could turn lower rapidly, but it is unlikely that a massive selloff will erupt in the coming days. It is more likely that moves downwards will spark a rebound and potentially higher prices. The lack of a unified central bank interest rate policy among the major nations – U.S and Japan included, will likely remain a focal point for a stronger USD near term.

USD/JPY Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 137.530

Current Support: 136.980

High Target: 138.210

Low Target: 136.640

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We expect the lira’s decline to continue, as every decline on the pair represents an opportunity to repurchase.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

The buy deal on Thursday was activated and a profit was exited from the deal with half the contracts closed and the stop loss point moved as the price progressed towards the target

Best selling entry points

• Entering a sell position with a pending order from 17.41 levels
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels 17.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.40.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from 17.00 مستويات levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.88.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 17.40

The Turkish lira continued to decline against the dollar after a kind of rise during trading last Friday, as the Turkish government announced a set of measures that indirectly aim to tighten monetary policy and withdraw funds from the markets. On the one hand, a new type of bond was announced, which is expected to Its details will be revealed during the middle of this month, the Turkish government announced raising taxes on consumer loans from 5 percent to 10 percent. The Banking Supervision Authority has also reduced the repayment periods of these loans while raising the minimum monthly payments for credit card payments. The new measures aim to control inflation and raise the value of the lira, which is the worst emerging currency in terms of declines during the current year.

On the technical level, the Turkish currency continued to decline against the dollar, as it returned to trading at the highest levels of 17 during today’s trading, after breaking this level downward during last Friday’s trading. The pair maintained its trading in an upward general direction as the pair continued trading above the 50 moving averages, and 100 and 200 respectively on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. At the same time, the pair is trading above the support levels that are concentrated at 17.00 and 16.80 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 17.40 and 17.80, respectively. The level of 17.40 represents a strong resistance level. We expect the lira’s decline to continue, as every decline on the pair represents an opportunity to repurchase, especially if it crosses the mentioned resistance levels. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

Ultimately, it’s easier to go higher than lower here.

The US dollar rallied a bit on Wednesday as we continue to see US dollar strength overall. That being said, the market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior in general, and it certainly looks as if the 0.98 level is going to cause some issues. If we can break above that, then it’s likely that the US dollar will go racing toward the parity level.

Keep in mind that this pair is a major divergence of central-bank policies, as the Swiss National Bank has no interest in trying to tighten, while the Federal Reserve most certainly will. However, the Swiss franc has a safety factor attached to it, so it’ll be interesting to see if investors continue to look to the US, or if they run toward Switzerland or safety. That being said, the market is likely to continue seeing a lot of volatility and concern out there, but it’s also worth noting that the US dollar is also a safe currency. In other words, it’s likely that we will see a lot of back-and-forth in this market, but ultimately it looks as if the US dollar is winning the battle due to the interest rate differential.

Underneath, we have the 50-day EMA that sits just above the 0.96 level, so it’s a very bullish sign and it makes sense that we would see that as a potential area of buying pressure. Ultimately, I have no interest whatsoever in trying to short this market, at least not until we break down below that level. It’s also worth noting that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level has offered support as well so that being said, the market looks as if it is trying to reach to the upside.

The US dollar continues to attract a lot of inflow, and with the 10-year yield over 3%, it makes sense that we will continue to see a lot of that in contrast with the Swiss who do everything they can to keep interest rates much lower. Because of this, I do believe that we will revisit the parity level, perhaps even an opportunity to break above there over the next couple of weeks. Ultimately, it’s easier to go higher than lower here.

The USD/JPY pair may maintain its bullish momentum until the release of US inflation figures by the end of the week.

The free collapse of the Japanese yen in the forex market led by the USD/JPY currency pair towards its highest in 20 years led all other currencies to achieve record gains. The currency pair jumped to the resistance level 133.00 before settling around the 132.50 level at the time of writing the analysis. The clear contrast in the future of raising interest rates during 2022 was in favor of the record US dollar gains and the collapse of the Japanese yen, as Japan is still providing more stimulus to the Japanese economy. There is a clear disregard there in the issue of raising interest rates, as do the rest of the other global central banks led by the US Federal Reserve.

All too often, a currency collapse is a sign of deep economic distress – like the euro swoon in 2014 or the pound crashing after the Brexit vote in 2016. For Japan in 2022, some see it as the best chance for recovery. The yen fell to a two-decade low against the dollar, caught in the crossfire between the two sharply different monetary policy regimes in Japan and the United States. The Bank of Japan is suspending interest rates at zero in an attempt to boost the faltering economy and stimulate price growth, while the Federal Reserve is raising rates sharply to fend off rampant inflation.

As a result, the higher yields available in the US are pushing the dollar higher and leaving the yen to collapse. 3% on benchmark Treasuries versus just 0.25% in Japan.

The turning point of inflation in Japan has approached with the price hike. However, the reaction of top Japanese policy makers to the renewed weakness of the yen on Tuesday indicates that they also see a positive side. This is because cost-push inflation driving a weaker yen is likely to offer Japan its best chance of securing stable inflation in years. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told parliament he wanted to build on the momentum to create a “benign cycle in which prices rise moderately while corporate profits, employment and wages improve.” Overall, a weak currency hurts households and importers, but boosts overseas profits for Japan’s biggest global names. Ultimately, the cheaper yen will also help restore the once thriving tourism industry that was a major driver of their regional economies.

“The cheaper yen is negative for household budgets, but looking at the Japanese economy as a whole, its positive impact is greater,” said Masamichi Adachi, an economist at UBS Securities. Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said the Japanese yen has good as well as bad repercussions for the economy, as he reiterated the government’s view that it is watching foreign exchange markets with a sense of urgency.

His comments, and the recent language used by senior Japanese officials, sounded less frank than the warnings issued by the Finance Ministry at the end of April. That was when the BoJ doubled down on its easy monetary policy as yields threatened to rise above the allowable level and the yen saw a faster pace of decline. After more than a month to get used to sharply lower yen levels – as low as 133 per dollar – on Tuesday and to assess the potential difficulty of successfully intervening to support the currency, the government appears ready to sit down now.

Harumi Taguchi, chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said, “The rhetoric has not solidified on the yen’s decline this time around. This is partly because the economy is improving. After virus restrictions are lifted, consumption rebounds and wages make moderate gains. However, I do not think that everything will turn out like the perceptions of the Bank of Japan. Consumers have become sensitive to higher prices and if this continues for a while, it will affect household spending.”

The health of the world’s third largest economy is at stake.

Policy makers can help launch the much-needed growth engine in Asia. If I get it wrong, they risk a disorderly crash in one of the major currencies which could prompt the Bank of Japan to adjust policy immediately, and Japan plunges into another recession.

According to the technical analysis of the pair: The general upward trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is getting stronger. Its recent gains have moved some technical indicators towards overbought levels, taking into account that the continuation of its gains may support the move towards new record high levels. The closest resistances for the currency pair are currently 133.20 And at 134.00, it is necessary to be careful not to activate selling operations to take profits at any time.

The USD/JPY pair may maintain its bullish momentum until the release of US inflation figures by the end of the week.

BNB/USD has climbed higher in early trading this morning and is touching short term support, which will cause technical traders to test their perceptions.

As of this writing, BNB/USD is trading below the 320.0000 mark, but it has traded near the 324.0000 juncture earlier this morning.  On the 27^th of May BNB/USD was trading near the 290.0000 ratio and its incremental climb upwards is intriguing technically. Having touched a low of nearly 225.0000 on the 12^th of May during a frenzy of selling across the broad cryptocurrency market, Binance Coin has recovered rather well.

However, the long term bearish trend which has been shadowing digital assets has certainly continued to have an effect on BNB/USD.  As a cryptocurrency which needs to be used within the Binance ecosystem to transact trading of other digital assets, BNB/USD enjoys a solid amount of volume, but it also remains a highly speculative cryptocurrency.

On the 25^th of May BNB/USD did trade near the 338.0000 but then began to face headwinds and slumped. The result of strong selling after this high was made quickly produced the lows written about above on the 27^th of May. Technical traders who are optimistic buyers do not have much evidence yet that a sudden burst of strong buying is going to puncture the highs seen on the 25^th of May. Until the higher short term resistance levels are brushed aside and significant price velocity is seen in the broad cryptocurrency market, it is likely choppy conditions will prevail in BNB/USD.

Day traders may want to view the 324.0000 to 326.0000 values as rather solid resistance in the short term. If BNB/USD has trouble sustaining a price above the 320.0000 level in the short term, this may be a sign that some selling will gain momentum for BNB/USD and that support near the 313.0000 to 311.0000 ratios may be challenged. Market sentiment remains fragile and the incremental gains made since the 29^th of May are good, but perhaps they are not enough to convince speculators that a strong bullish run is about to ignite.

Quick hitting trades are advised for cautious traders while using take-profit orders and conservative leverage. The use of momentum while seeking short term trends may prove worthwhile, and traders need to acknowledge that choppy results are likely to be demonstrated near term in BNB/USD.

Binance Coin Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 322.4000

Current Support: 313.1000

High Target: 334.9000

Low Target: 306.0000