Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) stabilized at a decrease in the recent trading at the intraday levels, to record slight daily losses until the moment of writing this report, by -0.01%. It settled at the price of $9.279 per million British thermal units, after its decline during yesterday’s trading by -0.03%.

September gas futures contracts in Nymex settled at $9,330 per million British thermal units, an estimated increase of 13.7 cents from Tuesday’s close, while October futures contracts rose 14.5 cents to $9,300.

NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. Spot gas prices fell in most areas of the US, even as hot weather continued on the West Coast by 31.0 cents to $8.935.

Prices stabilized after a volatile session on Tuesday when they hit $10 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2008, before pulling back on news of a delay in the Freeport LNG plant’s return to operation, which will continue to affect demand by hurting the ability to Sending fuel abroad.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is set to provide its weekly update on domestic inventories later Thursday, with the market anticipating above-average storage that may ease some concerns.

Natural Gas Technical Outlook

• The price is trying to gain positive momentum that might help it breach the pivotal resistance level 9.600.
• The resistance caused the price to rebound from its recent highs.
• It is trying to drain some of its clear overbought by the relative strength indicators, especially with the influx of negative signals from them.

All of this comes in light of the dominance of the main bullish trend over the medium and short term along with major and minor slope lines, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period, with the positive pressure continuing to trade above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

Therefore, our expectations indicate that the scenario of a rise in natural gas during its upcoming trading is likely, but on condition that it first overcome the obstacle of the resistance level 9.600, and then target the resistance level of 10.70.

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Expect a lot of volatility going forward as we have seen getting here.

• The NASDAQ 100 Index was very volatile on Tuesday as we had no real certainty by the end of the day.
• The market has been all over the place, so it does make a certain amount of sense that there are a lot of anxieties at the moment.
• The market has previously been on fire, so it’s interesting to suggest that we are at a major inflection point.

Important Candlestick Wednesday

The market has recently broken above a major resistance barrier in the form of the 13,500 level, so it certainly makes quite a bit of sense that it is offering a short-term support level. That’s exactly what we saw during the trading session on Tuesday, as we plunged lower only to see buyers step in and pick the market back up. By the end of the day, we were essentially unchanged, so it’s difficult to read much from this candlestick. It is because of this that I believe the Wednesday candlestick is probably going to be one of the most important ones over the last couple of months.

If we break above the top of the candlestick, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the 200-day EMA, which is currently right around the 14,065 level. After that, we have a significant amount of resistance at the 14,250 level, and that probably makes a significant target for those willing to get bullish at this point. On the other hand, if we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the day, we could go lower to look toward the 13,000 level, an area where I expect to see a lot of support at based on “market memory”, as there was a lot of resistance in that general vicinity.

Keep in mind that the NASDAQ 100 is led by just a handful of companies, so you could probably call it the “NASDAQ 7″ or so. Pay attention to all the usual actors such as Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, and the like. If they are rising, this index will rise right along with them. On the other hand, if they have a rough go, then we will see this market pullback to that 13,000 level. Either way, expect a lot of volatility going forward as we have seen getting here.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve gains in a session characterized by volatility by 0.23%, It gained about 69.86 points, to settle at the end of trading at the level of 31,037.69, after declining during Tuesday’s trading by -0.42 %.

Energy, financial and consumer discretionary stocks were the only losers, while the utilities sector led the way.

US stocks rose on Wednesday after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June monetary policy meeting showed the central bank’s eagerness to tame overheating inflation.

Members of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Committee decided at its meeting last month that another 50 or 75 basis points hike in the policy rate was “likely appropriate” in July, as it struggles to rein in inflation.

At its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, its largest increase in nearly 30 years, in response to levels of inflation not seen in nearly four decades. The central bank has raised interest rates in each of the past three meetings, with further hikes likely in the upcoming meetings.

According to the document, participants have realized that policy constancy can slow down the pace of economic growth for some time, but see that a return of inflation to 2% is critical to maximizing job opportunities on a sustainable basis, and the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled for 26 and 26 Next July 27.

Technically, the index’s rise came with the support of the influx of positive signals in the relative strength indicators. The index hovered for the fourth consecutive session around the main support level 31,000, in light of the dominance of the short-term bearish corrective trend along a slope line, with the negative pressure continuing for its trading below the simple moving average for a period of 50 In the previous days, we also notice in the midst of this that the RSI indicators reached overbought areas, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a return to the index’s decline during its upcoming trading, especially as long as the resistance level 31,000 remains stable, to target the support level 29,653.30.

I am looking for signs of exhaustion after short-term rallies that I can jump upon.

The Aussie dollar rallied a bit on Friday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior in most markets. The Australian dollar is especially sensitive to a lot of this noise, as it is highly correlated to commodity markets and China. The Chinese market is all over the place due to the fact that people are worried about various lockups, lockdowns, and whether or not there is going to be enough demand. That being said, the Chinese are starting to loosen monetary policy, so it is possible that it could offer a little bit of a bump higher for the Aussie economy.

The 0.68.50 level underneath is a significant support level, and if we were to break down below there, then it’s likely that the market could go lower, perhaps reaching the 0.65 level. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to see a lot of noisy behavior so you need to be cautious about your position size because this market can jump around on you for no apparent reason at this moment.

On the outside, we could make an argument for a move to the 0.70 level, but obviously, that would take a certain amount of momentum. At that point, the market will face more resistance, perhaps extending all the way to the 0.7050 level. This is a market that I think eventually will find plenty of the sellers above, especially as interest rates in the United States continue to pick up. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue its tightening cycle into the slowdown, so I think at this point in time it is only a matter of time before the US dollar picks up again.

That being said, if we were to break above the 0.7050 level, then it’s possible that we could go to the 0.72 level. At that point, it’s a major selling pressure point that I think if we could break above there, then everything changes. Until then, it still remains a “sell on the rally” type of situation going forward. Because of this, I am looking for signs of exhaustion after short-term rallies that I can jump upon. The markets continue to heara lot of noise, but in the end, I think Australia has a lot of problems in comparison to the US dollar as it is getting a boost from interest rates and a safety trade.

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has had a very volatile trading session, dipping down to the $117 region, before turning around and showing signs of life near the $120 level. The market had recently broken out of a previous triangle, and now it looks as if we are trying to go much higher. Ultimately, if we can break above the top of the candlestick for the day, then it’s likely that we could go to the $125 level. Breaking above the $125 level is something that I would anticipate seeing given enough time.

Looking at this candlestick shows you just how volatile the world is going to be. This is a market that has a lot of crosswinds, as the market has to worry about inflation, which in turn should push the price higher, but at the same time, it’s likely that we take a look at the reopening trade pushing oil much higher as a lot of production was taken off-line during the pandemic. Because of this, we are all over the place and of course, there is the added pressure of whatever is happening with Russia at the moment.

Because of this, I think the market is going to continue to be very volatile, but given enough time there are plenty of buyers out there willing to take advantage of value when he shows up. The $115 level should be a significant amount of support based upon the “market memory” of the triangle. The 50 Day EMA has breached the $110 level, and now looks as if it is going to go to that area above, namely the $115 level.

If we were to break down below the 50 Day EMA, it’s possible that the market could go lower and look to the uptrend line of the triangle. Breaking below that then as this market breaking apart. I think it’s much more likely that we go higher, perhaps breaking above the $130 level after a short-term pullback allowing for the market to build up momentum. Keep in mind that crude oil is a very volatile asset, so you need to be cautious about your position size but it’s clear that you should be buying and not selling, as has been the case for most of the last six months or so.

Look to fade rallies in this market

Bitcoin has rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday to break above the $30,000 level. By doing so, it does suggest that perhaps we are getting ready to try to build some type of base, but we need to see a major shift in the US dollar to give Bitcoin any real chance of taking off. Keep in mind that the market does tend to be very volatile, and we are most certainly in a bear market at the moment.

If the US dollar continues to strengthen quite drastically, then it is likely that Bitcoin will slice through the $25,000 level. The market breaking through there would be a very negative turn of events, opening up a move down to the $20,000 level. Bitcoin is a major rack at the moment, as we have seen so much in the way of trouble by strengthening the greenback and interest rates rising. Furthermore, there has been a major disaster in the crypto market in the form of Luna, which has had people running for the hills as well. Regardless, this is a market that will continue to see sellers on rallies, and it is not until the market breaks back above the 50 Day EMA that you could even remotely begin to think about buying it.

As long as the US dollar is strong, the Bitcoin market has no real hope, as the quote currency is the greenback. I think at this point, you are looking to fade rallies, and I would not be surprised at all to see the Bitcoin market go all the way down to the $20,000 level. We could be entering “crypto winter”, as all crypto markets look like a disaster just waiting to happen. I have no interest in buying, and even if we did break above the 50 Day EMA, it is more likely than not going to be where the market goes sideways for a long period of time, and the moving average catches up with it. If you are a longer-term holder of Bitcoin, you might be able to make an argument to get involved, but you are going to have lower prices that you can start building from. There is no real reason to get involved to the upside anytime soon.

Any opportunity to short this market on exhaustion will be taken.

The German index has gone back and forth during the bulk of the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of questions asked about the global economy. The futures markets dip down to the 13,500 level where you would anticipate a little bit of psychological support and then bounced back to finish the day somewhat unchanged. This does suggest that perhaps we are going to get a little bit of a rally, but that rally is not something I am necessarily looking to buy into.

The €13,750 level above is a bit of a barrier, just as it had previously been supported. The 50 Day EMA is above there and hanging right around the €14,173 level. It is drifting lower, and it has been dynamic resistance more than once. Because of this, I think that the first signs of exhaustion will more likely than not get sold into.

Keep in mind that there is a lot of concern about the global markets and global economies around the world so it is difficult to imagine a scenario where you want to jump in and start buying an index. That being said, we may get a little bit of a rally heading into the weekend for a simple short covering. It is not until we break above the 50 Day EMA and even the €14,500 level that I would be a buyer. After that, then the €15,000 level would be the next target. It is not until we break above there that I would be comfortable going long because I think there are far too many potential problems out there to derail any type of “risk-on rally” that we would see in any of the indices, let alone the DAX.

Keep in mind that the European Union has been showing less than attractive economic figures, and of course, as the world runs towards the US dollar for safety, it does make sense that we continue to see a lot of fear when it comes to the markets. Interest rates in Germany reflect serious concern about the overall outlook for the German economy, as well as the rest of the European Union. The DAX is full of major exporters, and therefore the destruction that we see globally is going to be felt in this market. Any opportunity to short this market on exhaustion will be taken.

XRP/USD has demonstrated a sharp move lower in early trading as a nervous weekend of trading has continued into Monday morning.

As of this writing, Ripple is trading within sight of the 68 cents level, but only a few hours ago XRP/USD was trading near the 70 cents mark.  On the 21^st of April XRP/USD was trading near the 76 cents juncture, and the trend downward which has been in effect since the 28^th of March in Ripple has not shown much ability to reverse higher. On the 28^th of March it should be noted that XRP/USD was trading above the 90 cents ratio.

This morning’s spike lower touched the 67 cents mark and this value had not been traded seen since the last week of February.  XRP/USD was able to display an upwards trend for a few weeks in March, but sentiment has clearly shifted once again and nervous selling has taken control. The question for speculators in the short term is whether the rather exuberant amount of selling is about to end or if additional depths will be seen.

Technical traders will need to look at mid-term charts to gather a proper perspective regarding potential support levels. Certainly day traders who want to pursue reversals higher can wager on this type of momentum developing, but the trend for nearly four weeks has shown that bearish momentum is still in control of the cryptocurrency market. If XRP/USD begins to test depths below 67 cents, and the 66 and 65 cents marks are approached, trading could become more volatile near term.  

The fact that Ripple is now within plain sight of values not tested since February is a poor signal. XRP/USD may be acting as an early indicator within the cryptocurrency market, Ripple is a utilitarian digital asset used in the banking payments sector. The notion that XRP/USD started rising in price slightly before many of its major crypto counterparts in early March, and has now stumbled to problematic lows not seen since February may be a negative sign for things to come.

Sellers of XRP/USD cannot be faulted for believing a speculative wager on more downside may prove to be worthwhile. Cautious traders may want to wait for slight moves higher to initiate their selling positions,while betting on a downturn to develop and continue what has proven to be a rather solid bearish trend. If XRP/USD cannot sustain the 0.67650 level today and shows more vulnerability, it is not unreasonable to suspect Ripple could fall below 67 cents again sooner rather than later.

Ripple Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.68150

Current Support: 0.67210

High Target: 0.70100

Low Target: 0.64950