After trading near highs early this week not seen since the third week of June, the NZD/USD currency pair has started to look technically bearish again.

The NZD/USD is mirroring results seen in many Forex spheres the past two days of trading; suddenly the USD has gotten stronger again.  As of this writing the NZD/USD is trading near 0.62900, which is actually close to interesting resistance up above.

If the 0.63000 mark gets challenged and sustains value above, this could be taken as a sign by some technical traders that additional buying action may ensue. However, traders may want to remain realistic regarding their upwards targets and keep their ambitions rooted with solid risk management, including take profits that cash out winnings before the potential of downturns following.

USD/NZD may have additional territory to Explore Downwards in the Near Term

On the 2^nd of August the NZD/USD was trading fractionally higher compared to today, and the 0.63000 level started to become resistance technically.  Prior to this on Monday the 1^st of August the NZD/USD was traversing near the 0.63540 ratio before losing ground, the last time those highs were seen was on the 21^st of June. However, before traders become convinced the long term bearish trend of the NZD/USD is about to vanish completely, they should understand the global economic climate remains challenging. The sudden downturn of the NZD/USD may prove durable in the near term.

The Move Higher in the NZD/USD has lost Power and Resistance is beginning to Flourish

If the value of the NZD/USD remains under the 0.63000 level for a sustained amount of time today and head’s into tomorrow with tests of support levels, this could spur on further downside momentum. Traders hoping for reversals upwards should be willing to look for quick hitting positions.

From a risk reward scenario near term in the NZD/USD, there appears to be reasons to suspect nervous sentiment is again building, and a risk of more selling pressure could emerge. Traders may become nervous as ‘chirping’ from U.S Federal Reserve officials have been quick to point out this week they believe more interest rate hikes are needed, not only one more in September.

Technically if the 0.62790 mark begins to falter, additional selling may build which could create a quick test of yesterday’s ratios near the 0.62600 to 0.62500 to be exhibited. Traders should expect some volatility for the NZD/USD the next two days of trading as financial houses continue to search for equilibrium in rather unclear Forex conditions fundamentally, which are bound to cause choppy conditions.

NZD/USD Short Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.62998

Current Support: 0.62790

High Target: 0.63185

Low Target: 0.61940

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More confusion is ahead but it certainly looks as if we have a major resistance barrier just above that should be paid close attention to.

• The NASDAQ 100 index rallied a bit during the session again on Tuesday, but just as we had seen on Monday, the 13,000 level seems a bit too much for the market to overcome.
• Because of this, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we get a bit of a pullback.
• However, if we were to go on the opposite direction it would certainly make a huge statement.

Two shooting stars in a row is generally a very negative sign, but if we were to break above the heights of the last couple of days, that would almost certainly be an explosive move to the upside just waiting to happen. At that point, I would anticipate that the NASDAQ 100 will go looking to reach the 13,500 level, an area that has seen a lot of noise in the past. That being said, anything above there would be a massive trend change. We have certainly seen a nice rally over the last couple of weeks, but we have suddenly hit a huge brick wall.

NFP Announcement Will Determine Direction

It’s worth noting that Friday is the Non-Farm Payroll announcement, and that will have a major influence on where we go next. After all, traders starting to focus on the possibility that the Federal Reserve is about to pivot, meaning that they will have an easing monetary policy. That is the case, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve has had a couple of members come out and explicitly say that the market has it wrong. Regardless, the market will do whatever the market does, so pay close attention to the area that we seemingly cannot break above. If we do, it may act as a “beach ball held under water”, meaning that it could shoot straight up in the air.

More likely than not, we can get a bit of a pullback, and perhaps try to get down to the 12,500 level. Friday will have a huge impact on the markets, because if it looks like the Federal Reserve will have to do whatever it can to tame inflation because of job growth, which in and of itself could be a bad thing as well. In other words, more confusion is ahead but it certainly looks as if we have a major resistance barrier just above that should be paid close attention to.

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Ultimately, the way we close on Friday will have a huge influence on where we go for the next couple of days.

Gold markets tried to recover during trading on Thursday but gave back gains rather quickly as we had approached the $1750 level. This is an area that has a certain amount of psychology attached to it, but really at this point, I think the only thing that we are paying attention to is the US dollar and of course interest rates in America. At this point, we continue to see a “sell the rally” type of situation, so I think that it’s possible that we continue to find negativity.

The $1720 level is the next support level, and if we were to break it down below there it could send this market much lower. The market certainly has taken a significant “punch to the face”, and therefore it makes sense that we would see a lot of downward pressure still. We would need to see a complete change in the attitude of the Federal Reserve for gold markets to suddenly turn around. Ultimately, we looked very sick at this point, and therefore I think it’s probably going to continue to see a lot of negative attention.

The $1800 level above could be a significant amount of resistance, so if we could break above there it could be a good sign, therefore showing the possibility of a turnaround. It’s not to we break above there, it’s likely that we could see the situation change. The market breaking above there could open up the possibility of a move to the $1850 level. The $1850 level is an area where we find the 200 Day EMA, and then also have seen a lot of structural resistance. Because of this, I think we will ultimately see that as a target if we do take off to the upside. On the other hand, if we break above there, then it’s possible that the market could go to the $1900 level. Quite frankly, that’s a whole world away, so I think any time we see signs of exhaustion, there will be plenty of people willing to jump on it.

Friday is the jobs report in the United States, so that obviously will have a lot of influence on what happens next, so I do think that the market will pay close attention to it. Ultimately, I think that the way we close on Friday will have a huge influence on where we go for the next couple of days.

It will be a long time before crypto wakes up out of this crypto winter, and I don’t think that EOS is going to be where it starts.

The EOS market initially tried to rally a bit on Wednesday, but it continues to see a lot of resistance near the $1.00 level. At this point, the market is likely to continue to see sellers in that general vicinity, as this is an area that has been noisy for quite some time. The 50-day EMA is sitting near the $1.20 level and is drifting lower. That was the scene of the previous consolidation area, so I think it all comes together for a bit of a short-term ceiling, even if we do get some type of rally.

Looking at this chart, it’s obvious that the $0.85 level has offered a bit of support in the short term, and it looks like we are going to try to break down through it. If we do, that opens up the possibility of a move down to the $0.60 level, based upon the “measured move” of the rectangle that we have drawn on the chart. Ultimately, I think we will probably go even lower than that, as the EOS market continues to see a lot of negativity, not only due to the fact that usage is minimal, but the fact that crypto, in general, has been falling apart for some time.

Looking at this chart, we would need to break above the $1.50 level to change the overall attitude, but I think it would take a lot to make that happen. You would probably need to see Bitcoin turn around, which right now does not look likely to happen. Risk appetite has been decimated in most markets, and the crypto market is no different. Because of this, I would be cautious about jumping in with a huge amount of money, but if you do believe in the EOS story, you could perhaps dip your toes in the water with very small positions.

However, as for myself, I will be watching both Bitcoin and Ethereum as a bit of a heads-up as to when we go to the upside. The market continues to sell off on rallies, and I think it will continue to be the way forward. It will be a long time before crypto wakes up out of this crypto winter, and I don’t think that EOS is going to be where it starts.

I do recognize that we can have the occasional bear market rally, and this can be vicious, but at the end of the day it should just end up a selling opportunity.

The NASDAQ 100 rallied ever so slightly heading into the weekend, but at this point it looks as if it is going to continue to see downward pressure. Even though it was the largest options expiration in history, it was not enough to move the markets drastically. In other words, nobody’s interested in buying this market, and at this point rallies should continue to be sold into.

If we break down below the low of the Thursday candlestick, it opens up a move down to the 10,800 level. After that, we could go much lower, but I think this is a situation where we are seeing quite a bit of concern around the world when it comes to interest rates rising, and because of this it’s likely to continue to see a lot of downward pressure on risk appetite as well. Ultimately, this is a market that should see plenty of volatility, but I think ultimately this is a situation that until we get a change in the overall attitude of the Federal Reserve, it’s difficult to imagine how this market takes off.

We are certainly in a major downtrend, so it’s going to be difficult to fight it. That being said, we are getting relatively close to a larger support level on longer-term charts, so you should pay close attention to that. I think at this point we are going to continue to see a lot of nerves out there, and of course, technology stocks tend to perform very poorly in a rising interest rate environment.

That being said, it is probably only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve realizes that it is tightening into a slowdown and will probably have to turn around. Because of this, it’s very likely that we will see continued downward pressure until Jerome Powell gives in. As the Federal Reserve has already stated that they are going to do 50-basis point interest rate hikes over the next couple of meetings, we should continue to see misery in this market. It would take a move above the €12,800 level to change the attitude, which is just above the 50-day EMA. I do recognize that we can have the occasional bear market rally, and this can be vicious, but at the end of the day it should just end up a selling opportunity.

The only thing I would do in this market is either short it, or avoid it altogether.

Litecoin continues to look vulnerable, although we did gain a minuscule amount Friday. The $40 level underneath continues to be supported, and I just don’t see how we don’t break through there eventually. Crypto’s dead and will be for a couple of years at the rate things are going. You cannot have this much fraud in an asset class and have people believing that it is something that they should invest in.

We are starting to see yet another Ponzi scheme come undone during the day, this time in Babel. This is another “crypto financial services firm” that has suspended client withdrawals. In an environment like this, nobody wants to be bothered with an asset that can suddenly disappear. This is a fresh concern after Celsius did the same thing just five days before. In other words, the crypto space is coming undone, and the smaller coins such as Litecoin are going to continue to get punished as a result.

It’s not necessarily that Litecoin has done anything, it’s just that people were running away from this market. With Bitcoin almost certainly breaking below $20,000 this weekend, it’s difficult to imagine that Litecoin is going to have a good go. Once we break below the $40 level, Litecoin more than likely will go to the $20 level next. After that, we could be talking about single digits, possibly even zero before it’s all said and done.

After all, in an environment like this, a lot of ecosystems will have to disappear. Venture capital has completely left the space, so now it’s going to have to actually prove itself to be worthwhile. It’s been over 10 years, and we have yet to find a day-to-day use for crypto, so I suspect we’ve got a couple of years of nothing.

Having said that, if you are lucky enough to build up a position in an ecosystem that comes up with something in the real world, you are probably going to make a fortune. The biggest trick right now is figuring out which one that’s going to be. It’s almost certainly not going to be Litecoin, or any of the other alts in the near term. Because of this, the only thing I would do in this market is either short it, or avoid it altogether.

Expect volatility, but this is still a “fade the rallies” type of situation.

Ripple has done almost nothing on Tuesday as we continue to see crypto markets do nothing as well. Ultimately, Ripple is in a major downtrend, and that is more likely than not going to continue to be the case. After all, there is a huge SEC lawsuit out there working against the company, and then we have to worry about the fact that the crypto markets themselves are melting down.

Remember, Ripple is being measured against the US dollar, which is by far the strongest currency out there, and it makes a lot of sense that we would see pressure on this coin. However, it is pretty far out on the risk spectrum, so it takes more risk appetite out there to get involved in this market than it does other coins such as Ethereum or Bitcoin. Speaking of which, both of those coins are struggling in general, so it is only a matter of time before the negativity over there will weigh upon this much smaller market.

On the upside, the $0.50 level is significant resistance, and it is likely that we would see downward pressure in that region. The market breaking above there would be the first step toward turning things around, but ultimately the $0.60 level is also resistance, and then above there we have the 50-day EMA that comes back into the picture as well. It is not until we get through all of that that I would consider buying Ripple, and at this point it looks like we are going to continue to see selling pressure.

The $0.40 level is a short-term support level, and then after that, we have the 35% level that will come into the picture as well. Ripple looks as if it is going to go down to the single-digit territory, but that does not necessarily have to happen right away. If we see Bitcoin break down below the $25,000 level, it will be like the trapdoor opening up on crypto in general, and obviously, Ripple will not have any chance in that type of scenario. After all, crypto has shown itself to be highly correlated to not only risk appetite, but everything that Bitcoin does. Expect volatility, but this is still a “fade the rallies” type of situation.

XRP/USD is challenging long-term support levels with prices not seen since March of 2021, as broad cryptocurrency market nervousness rips through the trading landscape.

XRP/USD remains under a vast amount of pressure in early trading this morning.  Ripple has challenged the 47 cents level a couple of times in the past day. While the price of XRP/USD has recovered slightly the fact that it is trading below the 53 cents mark is not about to start a parade of buyers who will proclaim the lows have been seen and a strong reversal is underway. The broad cryptocurrency marketplace is suffering from a sea of losses and XRP/USD is among the victims.

Speculators who are willing to wager on price direction under the present trading conditions need to acknowledge the market is dangerous. XRP/USD like many of its major counterparts has brushed aside long term technical support levels.  Values are now hitting ratios not seen in over a year, which underscores the magnitude of the bearish trend which has shown its claws and produced steep declines.

Price velocity in XRP/USD has been fast. On the 6^th of May XRP/USD was trading above the 61 cents juncture, early this morning’s low of 47 cents represents a price change that is strong and shows why speculators need to use cautious amounts of leverage. Traders who have been wagering on downside price action may be inclined to pursue additional drops in value from XRP/USD, but they are also advised to cash in profitable trades before they vanish into thin air.

Bullish speculators who believe the crypto market is vastly oversold may still be within the midst, but the bearish trend has made their speculative bets dangerous. Positions seeking upside price action may seem like a rather logical decision, but take profit orders should be used to capture winning positions quickly, because downside price action is likely to resume if behavioral sentiment remains poor.

If the 51 cents XRP/USD level fails to hold in the short term, further tests lower could be demonstrated quickly. Traders looking for upside should keep their targets realistic and be able to make fast transactions. Sentiment can be described as more than fragile under the present trading conditions. The bearish trend has not only created downward momentum, but created the need for technical traders to find long term charts and consider further declines which some may have believed were impossible.

Ripple Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.53100

Current Support: 0.50450

High Target: 0.54170

Low Target: 0.44580

Little bits and pieces for a longer-term investment might be possible in the short term.

Ethereum has fallen during the trading session on Thursday to test the bottom of the Wednesday candlestick. At this point, if we break down below the $2750 level, it opens up the possibility of a move down to the $2500 level. The $2500 level is an area that has been support multiple times, so it does make quite a bit of sense that we would continue to look at it as a potential target.

If we were to break down below the $2500 level, then it is possible that we could go down to the $2250 level, which has also been supported. After that, the next logical target will be the $2000 level, which is a major round figure. The $2000 level will attract a lot of attention and therefore I think a lot of headline risk will be found down there. If we were to break down below there, we would be a “crypto winter.” While I do not necessarily think that is going to be the case, it most certainly looks more likely than it did just a few weeks ago.

Ethereum also suffering at the hands of a lack of progress when it comes to the ecosystem itself, as we continue to hear all of the hype around “Ethereum 2.0”, the reality is that it is taking much longer than originally anticipated. While there may be a major shift into Ethereum eventually, at this point I think you probably have an opportunity to pick up Ethereum at lower levels. I think there will more than likely be a long period of time where you can simply build a bigger position to hang onto for the future. I do not necessarily think that it is worth bothering with any time soon, but little bits and pieces for a longer-term investment might be possible in the short term.

As far as a bullish move is concerned, we would need to see the $3250 level broken to the upside on a daily close to allow the market to go looking to the $3500 level. That seems to be very unlikely at this point, especially as the only thing that seems to be working is the US dollar in general. Never forget that this market is quoted in those US dollars, and that of course means that it has a significant effect at times.

XRP/USD has endured lower price action and after slipping again this weekend is testing support levels which are creating speculative opportunities.

XRP/USD is within the lower part of its one month price range.  Having attained a high above 91 cents on the 28^th of March, Ripple now is below 74 cents in rather quick trading. Nervous conditions are driving the broad cryptocurrency market again and XRP/USD is feeling the heat. The current price of Ripple is touching a price it last experienced on the 15^th, this morning’s price action has not calmed XRP/USD, instead it looks like more fuel has been thrown into the trading sphere.

Traders are advised to compare the prices quoted in this report to the actual market. In the past hour XRP/USD and other major cryptos have seen their support levels become fragile. Important values in the lower depths of mid-term price ranges are being tested. If XRP/USD continues to falter and breaks below current depths, it may cause speculators to believe the entire bullish parade upwards which started in the first week of March may be about to end for Ripple.

Ripple is affected by rumblings via its U.S court case which is still being fought with government regulators periodically. XRP/USD is also affected by mechanisms within its banking business which serves as a way to transfer money internationally.  

However, XRP/USD remains a volatile cryptocurrency like all others. Having touched a low of nearly 62 cents on the 24^th of February, the climb created by Ripple which touched late March highs above 91 cent created a significant percentage gain. The problem for traders who remain bullish is that support levels are once again acting like magnets. Hopes that the long term bearish trend within the broad cryptocurrency market may have evaporated is beginning to look like wishful thinking, as trading has remained negative for nearly three full weeks.

Sellers of XRP/USD may be making the logical decision in the near term. Cautious leverage amounts and stop loss ratios should be considered carefully. If XRP/USD is able to break through the 73 cents support level and see its price sustained below this juncture, this would be a negative signal. Even if XRP/USD remains below the 74 cents mark, this could add to nervous sentiment and cause speculators to remain unoptimistic as this week of trading begins. The 72 to 71 cents ratios may prove to capable targets lower sooner rather than later.

Ripple Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.76160

Current Support: 0.73250

High Target: 0.77630

Low Target: 0.71690