The candlestick itself is neutral, but it is also at a major historically important level, so I think you need to look at it through that prism.

• Gold markets were very noisy on Wednesday as the CPI number came out a bit cooler than anticipated.
• The market has been rising for a while, so it does make sense that we are running out of momentum.
• CPI in the United States came out at 0.0% month over month, and Core CPI came out at 0.3% instead of the expected 0.5%.
• This has traders looking at the possibility of the Federal Reserve not having to tighten monetary policy as rapidly as before.
• Ultimately, this is a market that will have a major influence on where we go next.

Support at 50-Day EMA

The 50-day EMA sits just below the bottom of the daily candlestick, and it suggests that there could be a little bit of support underneath. If we were to break down below that level, it would say a lot more than the initial rally started during the trading session. The fact that we gave back quite a bit does suggest that there is more trouble out there than people are aware of, especially as inflation is still running at about 3 ½ times what the Federal Reserve wants.

With that being the case, it’s probably only a matter of time before gold sells off, but if we were to break above the highs of the trading session on Wednesday, it’s possible that the market could go higher, perhaps reaching the 200-day EMA above. Breaking down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Wednesday shows that perhaps the market has peaked, at least for the short term.

Ultimately, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility, but it should be noted that we are still very much in a downtrend, although we are trying to break out. If we do break down from here, the $1750 level underneath would be a potential target. The candlestick itself is neutral, but it is also at a major historically important level, so I think you need to look at it through that prism. Until things change, the gold market still needs to prove itself from a longer-term standpoint. At this junction, I believe that the next impulsive candlestick will tell us where we are ready to go for a bigger move.

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The pair will likely continue the recovery process as investors target the upper side of the channel at 25,000.

Bullish View

• Buy the BTC/USD price and set a take-profit at 24,500.
• Add a stop-loss at 22,500.
• Timeline: 1-2 day.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 22,800 and a take-profit at 20,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 24,000.

The BTC/USD price tilted upwards as investors react to the strong rebound of American stocks and the regulatory clarity in the United States. It rose to a high of 23,600, which was the highest level since July 31st this year.

Regulatory Clarity

Regulation is one of the top issues in the blockchain industry. As a result, many companies and institutional investors have avoided investing in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. One of the concerns is that it is unclear which regulator has the authority to regulate them.

This could soon change if a proposal by Senate leaders pass. Leaders of the influential Agriculture Committee introduced a bill that will empower Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to regulate spot markets for digital cmmoditoes.

The bill comes at a time when many Americans have lost billions of dollars after the price of bitcoin and other commodities collapsed. Also, several companies in the sector like Celsius and Voyager Digital recently went bankrupt.

The BTC/USD price also rose as investors reacted to the latest quarterly earnings. This week, highly influential companies with an exposure to the crypto industry reported strong results. As a result, shares of firms like SoFi and PayPal rose by 25% and 10%, respectively.

This performance helped lift the top US indices like the Dow Jones and S&P 500 sharply higher. The indices rose by more than 1.5%. In the past few weeks, the indices have had a positive correlation with bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s recovery was relatively muted after several Fed officials hinted that the bank will continue hiking interest rates even as signs of weakness emerge. The next key catalyst for Bitcoin will be the upcoming US non-farm payrolls data scheduled for Friday this week. Analysts expect the data to show that the labor market weakened in July.

BTC/USD Forecast

The BTC/USD price moved sideways an the overnight session. It rose to about 23,600, which is at the middle of the rising channel shown in red. The pair is consolidating along the 25-period and 50-period moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved slightly above the neutral point.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue the recovery process as investors target the upper side of the channel at 25,000. A drop below the support at 22,500 will signal that bulls have prevailed, which will see it retest the lower side of the channel.

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Right now it’s very unlikely that we can keep up this type of momentum.

The Nikkei 225 had spiked initially during the trading session on Thursday but gave back the gains at the ¥28,400 level to form a massive shooting star. Because of this, it’s likely that the market is going to continue to see a lot of pushback in this area, and as we are a little overdone at this point, would not be a huge surprise to see this market pullback. The ¥27,600 level is an area that the 200 Day EMA sits at, but whether or not it holds remains to be seen. After all, being stretched the way we are suggesting that we are due for that pullback.

On the other hand, if we were to break above the ¥28,700 level then it’s likely that the market could go higher and reach the ¥29,200 level. That would be an explosion to the outside, but right now it’s very unlikely that we can keep up this type of momentum. This is especially true considering how many concerns there are around the world, but the one thing that Japan has going for it is that its currency is getting eviscerated. This helps the fact that the Japanese economy is so heavily weighted to exports, but it also can cause major issues for the populace.

The 50 Day EMA is starting to curl higher, and if it can cross the 200 Day EMA, then it would open up the possibility of a “golden cross”, which is a very bullish sign. At this point, the market will probably have a lot of people jumping into the market, but I think the only thing that you can count on is that we are going to see a lot of choppy volatility.

The question now is whether or not we are in the process of forming a “double top”, so if we do pullback I would anticipate that more sellers jump in. On the other hand, if we break above the high that was made at the end of March, that would be a significant breakout. Ultimately, the Japanese equity markets will more likely than not follow the rest of the world, which doesn’t look that impressive at the moment. Pay close attention to the Bank of Japan, because they are currently fighting interest rates rising, but eventually, they may have to give up.

Looking like it is  going to remain a “buy on the dip” market 

Ethereum markets spiked higher during the trading session on Monday to break above the $3500 level. However, we have given back those gains to show signs of hesitation and exhaustion, forming a shooting star. The shooting star is a very negative candlestick and does show that there is quite a bit of pressure in the $3500 level.

Furthermore, the 50 Day EMA is starting to turn higher, perhaps getting ready to break above the 200 Day EMA. This would be a “golden cross”, something that longer-term traders pay close attention to as a “buy-and-hold” sign. The market has recently broken out of a massive “W pattern”, which is also bullish. In other words, most of this chart looks bullish with the exception of the candlestick and the $3500 level that has proven to be important over the last 24 hours.

More likely than not, any pullback at this point will probably be an attempt to find support underneath to build up the necessary momentum to continue the uptrend. However, we have rallied so significantly that it would not be surprising at all to see this pullback before we can truly take off to the upside. I believe that the market is still bullish as long as we can stay above the $3200 level, perhaps even the $3000 level.

Alternately, if we were to break above the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Monday, then it could open up the possibility of a move to the $3750 level, perhaps even the $4000 level. The “W pattern” has a “measured move” that suggests that we should go to the $4500 level eventually, but the keyword here is going to be “eventually.” After all, the market does tend to be very noisy, but we are starting to see more positivity involving the merge in the Ethereum blockchain, so therefore it is likely that we would see more demand as time goes forward. However, we also have to worry about the risk appetite and profile of traders out there, because there are a lot of things out there that could cause headaches for higher-risk assets such as Ethereum, which has absolutely nothing to do with Ethereum itself.This looks as if it is going to remain a “buy on the dip” market.