Euro is not one of the weaker major currencies, but Dollar is strong.

My previous EUR/USD signal on 30^th May was not triggered as unfortunately the low of the session was a bit below the support level which I had identified at $1.0745.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm London time today.

Short Trade Idea

• Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0710.

• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0631 or $1.0600.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

EUR/USD Analysis

I wrote on 30^th May that we were seeing strong short-term bullish momentum, so I thought that looking for short-term long trades was going to be the best strategy for the day.

This was a good call as the London session that day saw a push up by this currency pair.

The technical picture now is quite different, as we have seen the US Dollar reassert itself in the direction of its long-term bullish trend over recent days. However, the Euro is one of the stronger major currencies, so we are seeing only a slow fall here.

The price chart below shows a slow, choppy, yet decidedly bearish medium-term trend, with the price pushed down by a descending trend line and a key resistance level at $1.0712. If you are going to trade this currency pair today, it will probably be quite dangerous to do anything else except for look for a short trade from a bearish reversal from that level.

It also seems likely that the price will be prone to sudden bullish bounces from $1.0650 or below, so there may not be a lot of short pips on the table for even a successful short trade.

It will probably be wise to trade other currency pairs which are moving more freely today, such as USD/JPY.There is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the EUR or the USD.

My previous EUR/USD signal on 12^th May might have produced a losing long trade from the bullish inside bar which rejected the support level I had identified at $1.0427.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be entered before 5pm London time today.

• Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0591 or $1.0604.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0457 or $1.0391.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

EUR/USD Analysis

I wrote on 12^th May that as we were seeing a persistent and narrow consolidation chart pattern at the end of strong long-term downwards price movement, it made sense to look for a short trade here following two consecutive hourly closes below $1.0484.

This was a great call, as we got those two hourly closes below that level very early in the day’s London session and entering at that point would have produced a profitable short trade with a maximum 85 pips of profit.

The technical picture now is much more consolidative, despite the long-term bearish trend and the price reaching a multi-year low only a week ago. In fact, after the big fall on 12^th May, the price has been steadily rising, printing higher lows and new higher support levels.

We have a bullish retracement that seems quite strong, with the US Dollar showing signs of having peaked. This suggests bulls have the edge over the short term but may not be able to drive the price much higher.

I see the best potential opportunity in this currency pair today as either a short-term long trade from a bullish bounce at $1.0457, or a longer-term short trade if the key resistance level at $1.0591 is reached, which looks likely to be very strong.

There is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the EUR or the USD.

The US Dollar continues to advance on rising yields.

My previous EUR/USD signal on 11^th April was not triggered, as unfortunately the price did not quite reach the nearest resistance level which I had identified at $1.0937.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today only.

• Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0831 or $1.0937.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0710 or $1.0639.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

EUR/USD Analysis

I wrote on 11^th April that despite the price’s inability to break down, the long-term outlook was bearish, and the trend was clearly downwards, so short trades from clear bearish reversals at $1.0937 continued to look attractive.

This was a good call as the price peaked that day close to $1.0937 and has drifted lower since then.

US Dollar strength has been the standout feature of the Forex market over the past several months, and the pace of the Dollar’s advance has picked up over recent days. However, although the Euro is weak, it will not fall strongly, but just continues to drift lower against the greenback and is prone to sudden bullish retracements. This can make this currency pair challenging to trade short.

Yesterday’s clear victory by sitting French President Emanuel Macron has boosted the Euro as markets have opened this week, but as the Dollar remains relatively strong, we do not see the Euro able to rise much here, and in recent hours it has begun falling again. The recent low at $1.0758 is well within sight, and this is now a near-2-year low.

Scalpers may be interested in trying to take a long trade from a bounce at $1.0710 if it is reached quickly, but trading with the trend will definitely mean a short trade here. As there tend to be such deep bullish retracements, waiting for a rise to $1.0831 followed by a bearish reversal will probably be the best approach for trading short here today. Trading this pair short on breakdowns is not advised in the current climate, as the bearish trend is simply moving too slowly.

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either the EUR or the USD.

No convincing support or resistance levels between $37,179 and $41,993.

Previous BTC/USD Signal

My previous signal on Wednesday last week was not triggered, as none of the key levels which were reached that day produced a reversal.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades must be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $38,961 or $37,179.
• Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $41,993, $42,896, or $45,668.
• Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote on Wednesday last week that we were seeing a more bullish technical picture now, and I thought that the best opportunities that might set up would probably be either a long trade from a retracement to $40,568 or a short trade from a bearish reversal at $42,896.

I also thought that if the price could continue to rise and get established above $42,896 that would be a bullish sign.

This was an OK call, as although neither of these levels proved to be important that day, I was correct to see $42,896 as a pivotal point as the price remained below and it and has continued to trade somewhat lower ever since.

The story with Bitcoin now is one of consolidation: zooming out to a daily chart shows that the price is within a narrowing triangle pattern.

There is a support level at $38,961 but it does not look reliable. This suggests that the price is most likely to chop around for the time being between $37,179 and $41,993.

I am prepared to take reversals from either of those levels without directional bias, as I expect that Bitcoin will continue to consolidate today.

There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding either the USD or Bitcoin.