EUR/USD

The EUR/USD has gone back and forth during the week, as we continue to hang around the parity level. At this point, it looks like we are taking a bit of a pause, but I think have to look at this through the prism of “fading short-term rallies” going forward. The market has gotten down to this level rather quickly, but now Jerome Powell has reiterated the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve, it’s likely that we will continue to see the US dollar reign supreme. I like fading rallies, especially near the 1.03 level if we get all the way up there.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD initially tried to rally during the trading week but gave back gains as we continue to see a lot of negativity when it comes to the British pound, as the Bank of England has already stated that the United Kingdom is going into a recession. Because of this, the market is likely to continue fading rallies, and maybe even worse off than the Euro. If we were to break above the 1.20 level, then you might be able to make an argument for something else. Until then, this looks very bearish to me.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY has pulled back slightly to kick off the week but then ended up rallying yet again. It looks as if we are eventually going to try to break above the recent highs, perhaps breaking through the ¥140 level. The ¥132 level underneath continues to be significant support, so I do like the idea of any pullback being bought into. If we break down below the ¥132 level, then we start to have other questions asked at that point. If the Bank of Japan continues to fight rising interest rates, this more likely than not will continue to be a “one-way trade.”

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD initially tried to rally during the week but gave back a lot of the gains at the 0.70 level. The market has seen a lot of volatility, and a lot of resistance at the 0.70 level. If we can break above the 0.70 level, then it is possible that we could go looking to the 50 Week EMA. However, it looks more likely than not that we are going to threaten the lows again after the Federal Reserve has spoken.

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Start the week of August 15, 2022 with our Forex forecast focusing on major currency pairs here. 

CAD/JPY

The Canadian dollar has stabilized against the Japanese yen over the last couple of weeks, essentially going nowhere. If the CAD/JPY currency pair can break above the highs of the last week, it’s very likely that the Canadian dollar will drive toward the ¥108 level. On the other hand, if we do pull back from here, I suspect that there is going to be a significant amount of support near the ¥102 level.

The Bank of Japan continues to buy “unlimited bonds”, which is the same thing as printing currency. If crude oil starts to recover again, this could be one of the best FX-related plays out there.

USD/JPY

The US dollar fell a bit against the Japanese yen during trading last week, showing signs of negativity. However, there is also a significant amount of support near the ¥132.50 level, and we have recovered from there. It’s very likely that the USD/JPY currency pair will continue to see this market go higher over the longer term, but we may have a bit of sideways action to deal with between now and then. After all, we need to understand that the market has been a bit overdone for a while, so I think we are simply working off the froth right now.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD currency pair shot higher last week, showing signs of life again. However, this is the one standout against the US dollar that I see right now, so I don’t necessarily trust this rally. The 0.7 to a level above should offer a bit of resistance, so I would be cautious about going long of the Australian dollar here. It’s probably more likely than not going to see some negativity, maybe later in the week.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair tried to rally significantly but found the 1.04 level a bit too much to get beyond. Because of this, it looks like we will continue to see a “fade the rally” type of market in the euro which is not a huge surprise considering all of the economic danger that the EU currently faces. The US dollar is by far the strongest currency over the longer term, and I think the euro is going to remain a punching bag. If we see any signs of strength this coming week, I will be looking for the first signs of exhaustion to start shorting.

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Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

The purchase transaction on Thursday was activated and a profit was exited after closing half of the contracts and moving the stop loss point to the entry point

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from levels of 17.85
• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.54.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

Analysis of the Turkish lira

The Turkish lira stabilized against the dollar during Monday morning trading, without major changes, as it appears that the Turkish Central Bank intervened to maintain the price of the lira at the current borders. Inflation expectations witnessed increases than previous expectations. There are no positive developments on the economic front that might push the price of the lira higher. During the past week, investors followed the Turkish president’s meeting with the Russian president, where Putin thanked Turkey for continuing to be a good trading partner, noting that the volume of trade between Moscow and Ankara doubled in the period from January to May of 2022. They also agreed on Friday that it will start Ankara made payments for natural gas to Moscow in rubles. This may ease the pressure on the lira slightly, especially since energy imports into the country have pushed inflation to rise dramatically. The lira is not expected to lead to a significant improvement in light of the monetary stimulus that the Turkish Central Bank is sticking to.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira stabilized against the US dollar, after the USD/TRY currency pair recorded a new high last week at 18.07 levels. In general, the pair’s movement continued within a narrow trading range, with the same trading pattern that the pair has been following since last week. The lira traded around the highest recorded during the current year. The pair is trading above the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the long-term bullish trend. At the same time, the pair is trading the highest levels of support, which are concentrated at 17.90 and 17.85 levels, respectively. The lira is trading below the resistance levels at 18.00 and 18.07, respectively. We expect to re-record new highs, especially with every dip in the pair, which represents a buying opportunity. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

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Start the week of August 8, 2022 with our #Forex forecast focusing on major currency pairs here. 

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair went back and forth last week as we continue to see a significant amount of noisy behavior between the 1.01 level, and the 1.03 level. This is a scenario where we see a lot of choppy behavior, and I think that will continue to be the case. Going forward, this is all about fading short-term signs of exhaustion, but recognizing that we don’t have very far to go. If you break down below the 1.01 level, then it’s possible that we could go down to the parity handle.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD currency pair initially rallied during the trading week but gave bank gains as we slammed into the 1.20 level. The 1.20 level is a significant support level, and it does look to me as if the market is trying to break through it. It’s also worth noting that the 50-week EMA is starting to break down below the 200-week EMA, thereby signifying just how negative things are. At this point in time, it’s worth noting that the interest rates in America spiked on Friday, that’s probably a potential catalyst for US dollar strength even further down the road. I prefer shorting signs of exhaustion after short-term rallies, as has been the case for a while.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD currency pair tried to break above the 0.7050 level, an area that has been imported a couple of times now, so as long as we stay below there, I think it’s likely that we will continue the sellers on short-term rallies. By Friday, we have attested the 0.69 level, an area that has been imported more than once. If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading week, then it’s possible that the market is looking to the 0.68 handle, possibly the 0.67 level. Anything below 0.67 would be extraordinarily negative.

On the other hand, if we were to break above the 0.7050 level, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the 0.71 level, but that seems less likely now.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY currency pair fell initially during the trading week but then turned around near the ¥1.31 level to show signs of life. By the end of the week, we had spiked quite considerably and broke through some minor resistance as the interest rates in America have gone considerably higher. This remains a “buy on the dips” scenario.

Start the week of July 10, 2022 with our Forex forecast focusing on major currency pairs here.

EUR/USD

The euro had a horrible week, as we have sliced through major support in the form of the 1.04 handle. That being said, the market is now extremely oversold so I would anticipate that the beginning of the week might be more about recovery than anything else. However, that recovery should end up being a nice opportunity to start shorting the market again, as the euro looks all but predetermined to reach the parity level sometime this summer.

It’s worth noting that I figured parity would be hit sometime in August, but it would not be surprising at all to see it happen this week. The parity level will attract a lot of attention, so I would anticipate a short-term bounce in that general vicinity.

GBP/USD

The British pound had a choppy week, breaking down below the 1.20 level at one point before recovering. In this general area, I would expect to see a lot of noisy behavior, but I still favor fading short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion. After all, the US dollar is like a wrecking ball against almost everything else, so the British pound won’t be any different. With that being the case, I do think that eventually we will look to reach the 1.15 level, but this particular week might be noisy.

USD/CAD

The US dollar rose against the Canadian dollar but still struggles with the idea of breaking above the 1.31 level. At this point, it’s an obvious area of significant resistance. If we were to break above the 1.31 level, I think we have a real shot at seeing a major breakout. This week will probably be more about chopping away at that potential barrier than anything else. I would anticipate that oil will have a lot to say as to where we go as well, as the usual correlation between the Canadian dollar and crude oil should continue.

USD/JPY

The US dollar rallied significantly against the Japanese yen during the trading week, but could not break out above the selling area from the past two weeks. That being said, the previous two candlesticks were shooting stars, so the fact that we are pressuring to the upside still shows just how much resiliency there is in this move. Buying on the dip should continue to be the best way to play this market, this week and beyond.

Start the week of July 4, 2022 with our Forex forecast focusing on major currency pairs here.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar plunged last week as risk appetite has been decimated across the board. The Aussie is highly sensitive to commodities, so it does make sense that we would see the Australian dollar fall. That being said, it looks as if any rally at this point in time should be treated with suspicion, and I suspect that there will be plenty of sellers willing to get involved if the Aussie does try to recover a bit. The 0.70 level looks to be a bit of a “ceiling in the market” going forward.

EUR/USD

The euro initially tried to rally for the week but then broke down below the 1.05 level again. At the end of the week, it even managed to slice through the 1.04 level. If we break down below the lows of the last couple of weeks, it’s very likely that the euro will find itself trying to get down to the 1.02 level. By the end of the summer, I would anticipate that the euro could go to parity, which is my target. Rallies at this point in time continue to be selling opportunities unless of course we somehow break above the 1.08 level, something that I do not anticipate seeing any time soon.

GBP/USD

Much like the euro, the British pound was hammered last week, especially on Friday. The British pound currently sits at the 1.20 level as I write this article, and if we can break down below the hammer from two weeks ago, that opens up a move down to 1.18, followed by 1.16. The British pound is not necessarily a currency that I think is in trouble, it’s more or less all about the Federal Reserve and its proclivity to tighten monetary policy going forward. Quite frankly, I believe that this is a market that will continue to go lower but is probably best approached from a “fade the rallies” type of situation.

GBP/JPY

The British pound fell against the Japanese yen, but most of this was done on Friday. It is hovering around the ¥162.50 level, an area that has been supported in the past on the daily chart. Below there, we have the ¥160 level, an area that I think will be crucial for the longer-term health of this trend. Keep in mind this pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so that might have been the main reason for the pullback. On the other side of the equation, the Bank of Japan continues to flood the markets with yen.

Start the week of June 27, 2022 with our Forex forecast focusing on major currency pairs here.

GBP/JPY

The British pound initially spent most of the week going higher against the Japanese yen but has continued to struggle near the ¥168.50 level. That being said, I think based on the candlestick from both this past weekend and the one before it, it’s likely that we will continue to hear a lot of noise. Ultimately, we are in an uptrend, and as long as the Bank of Japan is going to continues to fight interest rates, that will put downward pressure on the Japanese yen, thereby allowing this market to continue cranking higher as it has been. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will show signs of value hunting on every dip.

USD/JPY

The US dollar has skyrocketed against the Japanese yen over the last several months, but this week started to see a little bit of selling pressure. That being said, I think it’s just some profit-taking going on, and this is still a situation that you need to look at through the prism of finding value. Eventually, we will get some type of pullback that allows for that value, and I would be interested in buying it. Of special interest would be the ¥132.50 level. I have no interest in shorting this market anytime soon, and I believe that the ¥130 will be an even more supportive area.

EUR/USD

The euro has rallied during the course of the week, as we continue to see the 1.04 level offer a certain amount of support. This is a market in which I think you can continue to fade rallies, as the Federal Reserve is tightening its monetary policy going forward. On the other side of the equation, the ECB might tighten a bit, but it’s going to pale in comparison to the Federal Reserve as the United States is more worried about fighting inflation than finding energy such as the European Union.

GBP/USD

The British pound has been somewhat noisy during the course of the week as we are trying to find some type of bottom. Even if we do rally at this point, it’s likely that the 1.25 level is an area where a lot of people will find sellers, and I do think that you will continue to fade rallies going forward, but we may have a little bit to go before we get to serious selling pressure. Underneath, the 1.20 level is the target.

Start the week of June 20, 2022 with our Forex forecast focusing on major currency pairs here.

USD/JPY

The US dollar initially plunged against the Japanese yen during the past week, but as you can see, we have turned around quite drastically to close out the week near the ¥135 level. At this point, if and when we finally leave the ¥135 level in the rearview mirror, it will become yet another opportunity to “buy-and-hold” this pair. It’s at this point in time that it should be thought of as value, as the Bank of Japan has reiterated its goal of keeping interest rates down. There is no fundamental reason for this trend to change.

GBP/JPY

The British pound did very similar action against the Japanese yen during the trading week, plunging to the ¥160 level before finding buyers and turning around again. By doing so, the market looks likely to continue plowing higher, eventually threatening the “double top” near the ¥168.50 level. If we can break above there, then it’s likely that this pair will become more “buy-and-hold” than anything else.

At this point, any dip in this pair should be thought of as a buying opportunity as it is so bullish, and it does not look like it’s changing anytime soon. Ultimately, this is a market that could go looking to the ¥170 level.

EUR/USD

The euro was all over the place during the week, which is indicative of the markets in general. Volatility continues to be a major issue with most major asset classes, and I just don’t see this ending. Because of this, I think this market continues to be neutral with a downward bias, so if you are a range-bound short-term trader, you are looking for rallies to sell. I would not look for a massive move in this market, but that’s nothing new for the euro as it is one of the choppy and worst trading pairs out there.

GBP/USD

The British pound had a wild week, slicing through the 1.20 level before turning around. The Bank of England press conference caused chaos, but it does look like we are at least trying to do some type of recovery for a base-building exercise here. Nonetheless, I still like feeding rallies and I think that it is probably only a matter of time before the sellers return, especially the closer we get to the 1.25 handle.

The price of gold was exposed to strong profit-taking operations, after which it started from the resistance level of 1878 dollars an ounce to the support level of 1819 dollars an ounce. It continued the path as the price of gold fell to the support level of 1813 dollars an ounce before settling around the level of 1831 dollars an ounce at the time of writing the analysis. The gold price is trying to avoid collapsing below the psychological support of 1800 dollars an ounce. Strong selling of the gold market came primarily from the continuation of the strong and sharp gains of the US dollar from the expectations of a strong US interest rate hike, especially after the announcement of the highest inflation wave in the United States since the eighties.

With the latest performance, gold is retreating from a weekly loss of about 0.8%, erasing all of its gains in 2022.

As for the price of silver, the sister commodity to gold, it is trying to stay above $21. As silver futures fell to $21.075 an ounce. In general, the price of the white metal decreased by 4.5% during the past week, which increased its loss since the beginning of the year 2022 to date by about 10%. The price of gold fell mainly with the rise in US Treasuries and the strong appreciation of the dollar. Treasury yields rose with the beginning of trading week, with the 10-year bond yield rising 19.1 basis points. One-year yields rose 27.1 basis points, while 30-year yields rose 18.4 basis points. Gold prices are sensitive to a higher interest rate environment because they raise the opportunity cost of holding non-return bullion.

The rise of the US dollar index (DXY), as it advanced by 0.82% to 104.21, and overall, the US dollar index DXY has increased by nearly 10% since the beginning of the year 2022 to date. Over the past 12 months, the dollar is up 16%. In general, a stronger profit is bad for dollar-priced commodities because it makes them more expensive to buy for foreign investors.

The stock market crash was the biggest development on Monday as major indexes fell. The S&P 500 has officially fallen into a bear market, having fallen more than 21% since the beginning of the year. Investors are panicking that the US Federal Reserve will be bolder in its efforts to tighten policy, which could raise US interest rates by 75 basis points during this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The odds have risen dramatically after the US Consumer Price Index rose 8.6% in May.

In other metals markets, copper futures fell to $4.204 a pound. Platinum futures fell to $933.40 an ounce. Palladium futures fell to $1812.00 an ounce.

According to the technical analysis of gold: The bulls’ control over the direction of the gold price will temporarily evaporate as soon as the price of gold crosses the psychological support level of 1800 dollars per ounce. I still prefer buying gold from every bearish level and it may still move in narrow ranges with a bearish bias until the Fed’s monetary policy update is announced tomorrow.

On the upside, the bulls will return to control the direction of gold if it returns to move towards the resistance levels of 1862 and 1878 dollars, respectively.

Start the week of June 13, 2022 with our Forex forecast focusing on major currency pairs here.

GBP/JPY

The British pound has rallied during most of the week but gave back quite a bit of the gain as more of a “risk-off” environment came into the markets. Inflation numbers on Friday were horrible in the United States, so that’s only going to exacerbate this problem. Because of this, the market is more likely than not going to continue to pull back a bit, but I don’t necessarily think this is the end of the uptrend. We have formed a little bit of a “double top”, but I do think that eventually, the games that the Bank of Japan is playing with its interest rate market will continue to put downward pressure on the yen.

EUR/USD

The euro was pummeled last week, with most of the losses coming on Thursday and Friday. The ECB suggested that there were interest rates coming down the road, but they are small and incremental. It’s not like the Federal Reserve, which is starting to show that it is going to have to get extraordinarily tight. This is especially true after the inflation numbers came out much hotter than anticipated on Friday. It’s only a matter of time before you break down below the 1.05 level and go looking to the 1.04 level.

USD/JPY

The US dollar skyrocketed against the Japanese yen yet again during the last trading week, and even though we had pulled back both Thursday and Friday, buyers came back in to pick up this market. With the Federal Reserve having to tighten monetary policy as aggressively as they will, and the Bank of Japan looking to keep interest rates down, this is a perfect storm for this pair to continue blasting off to the upside. I think dips at this point in time will continue to be bought, and it’s likely that we will break through the ¥135 level sometime this week.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar tried to rally last week but gave back the gains as we are getting close to the 0.70 level. This is an area that should be significant support, but if we break through there again, it’s likely that we will continue to go lower as we have already attempted it about a month ago, so a lot of the damage has already been done ahead of the next attempt. I have no interest in buying this market, and short-term rallies will continue to offer selling opportunities.