Hits new August high above $24k.

Previous BTC/USD Signal

My previous signal on 1^st August was not triggered as there was no bullish price action when the support level I had identified at $24,372 was first reached.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $23,585, $23,028, or $22,713.
• Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $24,358 or $25,000.
• Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous analysis last Monday that the price of BTC/USD had reached a pivotal point: the support level at $23,266. I thought that if the breakdown happened, it could be quite strong as there were no support levels below until $21,449. However, I was also happy to take a long trade from that level if there was a bullish bounce.

This was an OK call as the price broke down slowly, and this did indicate correctly that the price would fall over the remainder of the day.

The broad technical picture is unchanged: the price continues to rise gently and be held by a wide bullish price channel.

The shorter-term picture has become more bullish as we have seen the price make two clear higher lows since towards the end of last week, and today it has been rising firmly to break out bullishly above the former resistance level at $23,585 and make a new August high price.

The important question now is whether $23,585 will continue to hold as new support. If it does, we could see the price rise today to $24,358 or even the big round number at $25k.

The best approach to trading Bitcoin today will likely be to wait for a long from a bounce at or very close to $23,585. I would not want to see any hourly closes below that level before entering a new long trade.

There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the US Dollar.

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Significant Selling near $1.0300.

My previous EUR/USD signal on 18^th July was not triggered as there was no bearish price action when the key resistance level at $1.0121 was first reached.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today.

• Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0211 or $1.0245.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0073, $1.0042, or $1.0000.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

EUR/USD Analysis

In my last analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair on 18^th July, I noted that the level at $1.0121 looked attractive for a short trade entry but that if the price got established above $1.0121 later, it would signify a much deeper bullish retracement.

The level at $1.0121 in the end was not important at all, with the price easily blasting past it, but I was correct about that being significantly bullish, as the price continued to advance over the next days.

The technical picture now is different, as although we have seen the Euro make repeated attempts to rise against what has become a weaker US Dollar, bulls were simply not able to get the price beyond the $1.0300 handle, as there seems to be strong selling every time the price gets close to that area.

On the other hand, we are also seeing strong buying every time the price gets to the $1.0100 area.

This combination of strong buyer with strong sellers produces a no-man’s-land area between $1.0100 and $1.0280 within which the price can range.

Despite this overall consolidation, the shorter-term picture looks bearish, with the price breaking below $1.0211 which has held as resistance.

The best strategy today will probably be to look for a reversal off any key level and trade in the direction of the reversal, while being conservative about taking profits. Anyone trading without levels right now should be looking to short on minor pullbacks as they reverse back into the trend.

Any surprise from the Bank of England later (a 0.50% rate hike is expected) could also cause volatility in the Euro, so that is worth keeping an eye on.

There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding either the EUR or the USD.

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