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At this point, the only thing that I think you can count on is a lot of noisy behavior not only here, but in other places.
Ethereum has rallied a little bit of bullish pressure to the outside during the day on Thursday as we look like we are going to try to get to the $1800 level. $1800 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that people pay close attention to. Ultimately, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility and noise, due to the fact that there has been so much in the way of confusion when it comes to what the central banks are going to do.
Ethereum is starting to get a little bit of a boost from the impending merge, but we have been disappointed by that more than once in the past. The question at this point is whether or not the market is truly starting to rally, or if it is simply a bear market rally that is trying to find resistance above. The $1800 level is an area that I think could offer a lot of selling pressure, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out.
Even if we break above the $1800 level, you have to be cautious because there is a lot of noise in the area all the way up to the $2000 level. The $2000 level of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and will cause quite a bit of headline noise. Breaking above that level would obviously be a huge deal, but right now I think there is still a lot of concern out there when it comes to the risk appetite, and of course crypto in general. Ethereum is a little bit different in the sense that it has a major upgrade going on, but at this point, it seems a bit of a stretch to think that Ethereum is going to avoid macro headwinds.
I believe that the first signs of exhaustion will probably have people running for cover, but anything is possible sooner or later, you have to pay attention to price and not much else. The 50 Day EMA underneath is sitting just above the $1200 level, and therefore you would have to think of that as a potential support barrier. At this point, the only thing that I think you can count on is a lot of noisy behavior not only here, but in other places.
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