AUD/USD Forecast: Market to Remain Choppy

If we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the day, that could be a very negative sign, perhaps sending this market much lower.

The AUD/USD pair has fallen rather hard during the early hours on Wednesday, as the Royal Bank of New Zealand decided to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points. This move was in sympathy for the Kiwi dollar, slamming the Aussie down into the 50-Day EMA.

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Later in the day, we had the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which traders interpreted as showing signs of potential dovishness. Because of this, we did get a little bit of a lift, but it is probably worth noting that we are still very much in a consolidation area that will probably cause major problems. With that in mind, I think this is a market that remains choppy, and therefore probably one that you need to focus on short-term charts. That 0.70 level above is the beginning of relatively significant resistance, which could extend all the way to the 200 Day EMA, which is currently at the 0.7150 level. Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly levered to the Chinese economy.

Will AUD Return to a Bullish Trend?

• If we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the day, that could be a very negative sign, perhaps sending this market much lower.
• It is likely that we would see the Aussie drop back down to the 0.67 level, an area that has been important previously.
• Not only did we bounce from there recently, but it’s also longer-term support and resistance area, and therefore it does make a certain amount of sense that we would struggle in that region.

If we do break down below the 0.67 level, it opens up a move down to the 0.65 level, and then possibly even lower than that. It should be noted that this level has been important going back several years, so it should not be a surprise that we had bounced from there. Furthermore, if we were to break down below that level, it would be a severe breach of support, so it could open a big flush lower. On the upside, if we were to take out the 200 Day EMA going forward, that would obviously be bullish, and would technically make the Australian dollar back in a bullish trend again. I don’t see that happening, but it’s something that you need to be aware of.

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