Lira Declining after Bank Decision

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

• Risk 0.50%.
• None of the buy or sell transactions of yesterday were activated

Best selling entry points

Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33

• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best buy entry points

Entering a long position with a pending order from 17.98 levels

• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.74.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.

Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

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Analysis of the Turkish lira

The USD/TRY stabilized against the dollar at its lowest level during the current year, near the highest level for the pair recorded during the past year. This is after the Turkish Central Bank surprised the markets and cut the interest rate last Thursday by 100 basis points or 1 percent. The stimulus policy pursued by the Turkish Central Bank is one of the biggest reasons that put pressure on the price of the lira, which is slowly declining against the dollar. During the day, the Turkish President will meet with the Council of Ministers to study the market’s reaction to the interest rate cut in conjunction with the expansion of inflation. Meanwhile, investors followed up on what could be called tensions at the political level after the United States accused Turkey of helping Russia evade some sanctions. In this regard, US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wali Ademo said on Saturday that Moscow is trying to use Turkey’s willingness to help resolve the crisis in Ukraine to bypass Western sanctions. During the call between the Treasury Secretary and Turkish Deputy Finance Minister Yunus Ilyas, Ankara emphasized that it would not allow Russia to violate the sanctions imposed by Western countries due to its invasion of Ukraine. Political tensions may represent one of the reasons for putting pressure on the price of the lira, which has no hope of rising in light of the current political and economic conditions.

Technical Outlook

The US dollar against the Turkish lira settled at its highest level during 2022, after breaking the narrow trading range in which the pair has settled since the beginning of the month, which is shown on the chart. The pair traded the highest support levels, which are concentrated at 17.98 and 17.85, respectively. While the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 18.16 and 18.33, respectively. The pair is also trading above the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the long-term bullish trend. The chance of the lira rising against the dollar is still slim as the pair is heading in an overall bullish trend. As each decline of the pair represents a good buying opportunity, please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation, with the need to maintain capital management.

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