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Retail sales data from New Zealand released early this morning came in more negative than expected, but the NZD/USD has climbed momentarily.
As of this writing the NZD/USD is trading near short term highs around the 0.62325 ratio. After starting the day near the 0.61750 mark this morning, the NZD/USD has shown an ability to climb higher. Making the move rather intriguing is the fact the upwards momentum was generated after New Zealand’s retail sales data came in with a worse than expected negative result. Contrarian technical traders may be smiling, while some speculators stand in the corner and wonder what is going on.
The NZD/USD actually remains within the lower part of its long term range. The move higher while noteworthy this morning, has been only slight in the overall scheme of its trading range. Price action in the NZD/USD is certain to remain fluid and the knowledge that Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr is speaking tomorrow at the Jackson Hole central bankers conference in the U.S should alert speculators to the potential of more fireworks.
The NZD/USD is within sight of Important Resistance, but Key Support is Actually Close Too
Whipsaw trading results in the NZD/USD have been demonstrated the past month, but a broader look at the currency pair highlights a downwards trend. Technical traders who have been trying to buy near perceived support levels, while looking for a strong reversal higher may have found results difficult. Traders who are looking for price action upwards should keep their targets realistic and not try to capture values that could prove overly ambitious.
- Resistance near the 0.62400 level should be monitored; if this level is penetrated another leg upwards could develop momentarily for the NZD/USD.
- Speculators need to be braced for volatility with important U.S GDP data coming later today and central bank policy speeches on the schedule for tomorrow.
Choppy Results Cry Out for Solid Risk Management in the NZD/USD
While short term traders may be embracing the NZD/USD upside move created this morning, they should monitor technical resistance areas carefully. Economic data and central bank policy from the U.S Federal Reserve will continue to play a key component fundamentally into behavioral sentiment and the trading reactions within financial institutions.
The long term incremental move lower in the NZD/USD remains intact and higher moves may prove to be opportunities to try and sell the currency pair for speculative wagers. Conditions the next two days of trading will remain volatile and risk management is urged. If support near the 0.62100 is approached this could be an additional bearish signal.
NZD/USD Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 0.62400
Current Support: 0.62140
High Target: 0.63180
Low Target: 0.61610
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