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Bitcoin is still finding buyers close to $20k.
Previous BTC/USD Signal
My previous signal on 18th August was not triggered as there was no bullish price action when the support levels which I had identified were first reached that day. Unfortunately, the high of the day was just below the nearest resistance level.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $20,754 or $20,381.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $22,713, $23,163, or $23,609.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous analysis on 18th August that the price of BTC/USD was prone to a bearish reversal, with the resistance level at $23,609 looking attractive for a short trade as it had become likely “role reversal” resistance so would probably be likely to hold if reached. I was also interested in a long trade from the support level at $22,713.
Neither of these opportunities set up, with the high of the day unfortunately just a little below $23,609.
As it happened, during the later Asian session, the price broke down from its medium-term bullish price channel, finding a bottom just above the support level at $20,754.
The price has been consolidating since then above this supportive area, making a weakly bullish pattern of higher lows.
The price has room to rise and seems unwilling to fall further, with no key resistance levels overhead until $22,713.
Traders today might look to buy a bullish breakout above $21,900 / $22k, or alternatively hope for a retracement to the support level at $20,754 and go long following a bullish rejection there.
With today’s Jackson Hole symposium, it feels like we may see a major reversal in the US Dollar and a boost for riskier assets, which suggests upward price movement for Bitcoin.
Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a release of Preliminary GDP at 1:30pm London time, followed later by the start of the Jackson Hole symposium and Fed Chair Powell’s speech.
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