Bearish Breakout to 0.9800 Possible

A move above the resistance point at 1.0070 will invalidate the bearish view.

Bearish view

  • Set a sell-stop at 0.9950 and a take-profit at 0.9800.
  • Add a stop-loss at 1.0050.
  • Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

  • Set a buy-stop at 1.0030 and a take-profit at 1.0100.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.9950.

The EUR/USD currency pair was hovering at the parity level on Tuesday morning as investors waited for important economic data from Europe and the US. It was trading at 1.000, which was slightly above this month’s low of 0.9902.


US and EU confidence data

The EUR/USD price moved sideways at the parity level as investors reflected on last week’s statement by Jerome Powell and other Fed officials like Neel Kashkari.

Speaking at the Jackson Symposium, Federal Reserve officials reiterated that the bank will continue hiking interest rates in the coming months. This decision mirrored what the officials wrote in the last meeting.

The next key catalyst for the pair will be the important economic data from the United States and Europe. In the morning session, the European Commission will publish the latest consumer and business confidence data.

The numbers are expected to show that sentiment continued to drop in August as challenges rose. For example, consumer confidence is expected to have dropped to -24.9 in August. They also expect that services and industrial sentiment dropped sharply in August.

This happened as the cost of energy and basic items in Europe jumped sharply. Indeed, European leaders are scheduled to meet this week to deliberate on the possible action to cushion their residents as prices rise.

The EUR/USD pair will also be moved by the flash inflation data from Germany, Belgium, and Spain. With gas and electricity prices rising, analysts expect that inflation rose sharply in August. For example, the expectation is that inflation in Spain rose to 10.9% while in Germany it rose to 8.8%.

The pair will also react to the latest US consumer confidence data by Conference Board. Economists expect that confidence improved in August as gasoline prices eased.

EUR/USD forecast

The EUR/USD price moved sideways on Tuesday morning. This price managed to move below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It is also trading at the standard pivot point. At the same time, it has formed what looks like an inverted cup and handle pattern, which is usually a bearish sign. This consolidation can be viewed as the handle section.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the pair will soon have a bearish breakout as sellers target the next psychological level at 0.9800. A move above the resistance point at 1.0070 will invalidate the bearish view.

EUR/USD signal

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