Brazilian Real Tempts Traders with Intriguing Range

The USD/BRL has produced another round of head scratching trading results, as it finished yesterday near technical lows.

The USD/BRL traded near value last seen in the middle of June as it ended yesterday’s Forex session near the 5.0285 ratio. On the 25th of August the USD/BRL currency pair found itself trading near the 5.1420 mark, but by Friday the USD/BRL actually started to decline in value. This came on the heels of the central bank policy speeches from the U.S in Jackson Hole which seemingly had little effect on the USD/BRL.

This weekend’s televised debate for President of Brazil also seemed to have little effect on the temperament of investment houses. The prospect of a left leaning political leader taking the realms of Brazil has not flustered the value of the USD/BRL as of yet. The election will be held on the first Sunday of October, and if a majority 50% plus winner is not produced the second round for President will be held the last Sunday of October. Technically the USD/BRL is hovering near very important support.

The 5.0000 Level is within Sight, but Support could prove to be lower

Speculatively the USD/BRL has produced a rather astonishing move lower while many other major currencies paired against the USD struggle to attain value.  The USD/BRL was trading near 5.5100 on the 21st of July and has incrementally moved lower since then. However, it must be pointed out that on the 10th of August the USD/BRL was trading near the 5.0400, but then moved higher and touched a ratio of nearly 5.2120 on the 19th of August. However, the bearish trend is rather startling.

  • Today’s opening in the USD/BRL should be monitored. If there is no gap upwards it could be a signal additional selling pressure could be demonstrated.
  • If a gap higher is produced on the opening and the USD/BRL is suddenly testing the 5.0350 level, traders may believe it is an opportunity to look for quick hitting moves upwards.

The Strong Trajectory Lower in the USD/BRL Remains Suspicious but the Trend has been Durable

Speculators will have an opportunity to wager on the short term range of the USD/BRL, if it can remain within a calm range.  The opening should be watched for sudden potential gyrations. The USD/BRL continues to look like it has been overbought, but the trend which has been produced technically leaves little to argue, and if the 5.0000 were to prove vulnerable a move towards the 4.9700 level would not be a complete shock. Traders should look for quick hitting trades and have their risk management working today.

Brazilian Real Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance:  5.0395

Current Support:  5.0157

High Target: 5.0796

Low Target:  4.9723


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